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Comment Re:Suggests abiogenesis is easy (Score 2) 104

Interesting discussion but I'm not sure the conclusion is sound. Judging difficulty on a sample size down around one or two isn't great. I could just as easy put out that zero is the number that indicates it's hard. Knowing life arose once suggests it's not "hard". Given the time-spans involved here, it could be very, very unlikely in any meaningful sense but the sheer amount of time allowed it to eventually happen, twice even... while leaving it statistically unlikely.

As for the Fermi's Paradox, I think the Occam's answer is Adam's Observation: "space is big. Really, really big..."

For any civilization to both want to and actually do something so incredibly massive that it's observable with our limited perception and rigor is... fantastic. There could be plenty of civilizations within two hundred years of maturity of ours very close and we'd never know unless we were really lucky.

Comment Re:Ok, so since market has started ignoring him (Score 3, Interesting) 209

Why aren't we freaking the fuck out right now?

Because there are four categories of people here:
1} Non-indoctrinated non-investors... are freaking the fuck out right now but are powerless.
2} Indoctrinated non-investors... don't have money so don't care what Trump does to the stock market.
3} Non-indoctrinated investors... are quietly more interested in any money-making opportunity than principles.
4} Indoctrinated investors... have been encouraging all of this.

Category 1 is way, way outnumbered.

Remember when the very hint of being shady like this would disqualify someone from a office nearly as high as President? This is why I was upset when Trump started lying in his first term. He normalized deceit then and he's been normalizing corruption now.

This is Pandora's box; there's no real reason for anyone in the future to not follow this precedent because America statistically condoned it. Frankly without an armed revolt making it clear that misbehaving won't be tolerated, it obviously will be.

Comment Re:Don't know about Australia (Score 1) 97

In America taking away social media from your kids would be pretty fucked up. At least assuming you can't either taxi cab them around town, buy them a car and get them a license or pay for a shitload of taxi rides That's because the suburbs have basically spread us out to such a ridiculous degree that kids don't have a lot of opportunities to socialize. And no school doesn't really count you get maybe a half hour for lunch. Hell people have been talking about how suburbs isolate people for ages. And it's only gotten worse. Back when my kid was in high school they were a good 40 minutes away from their closest Friend by bus. By car it was something like 10 minutes but like most places my city's bus system sucks balls. And when you have two or three hours of homework a night minimum sometimes as much as four or five that's just not going to cut it. I suspect it was less of a problem for us old farts because not only were a lot of us in denser living conditions but even if we weren't we didn't have the crazy amounts of homework that modern kids get. Admittedly it's been years since my kids have been in high school but as far as I know that hasn't changed and kids still get multiple hours of homework a night despite all research showing that doing that's very counterproductive... More of the puritanical bullshit you just can't shake from our shitty culture. So pretty much the only place your kids get to socialize unless you are very well off or they are very lucky is going to be on social media. We could of course do away with the suburbs and make walkable cities but the car companies are worth tens of billions of dollars so there sure is shit not going to let us do that even if you could convince old people who are hung up on cars to do it I suspect that old people are just going to keep grinding their kids into dust. Honestly I think most of us didn't want to have the little shits anyway. Men want sex and women want babies.

I'm skeptical of this conclusion.

When we were primarily a farming civilization, the physical distances between kids and the nearest kids they weren't related to wasn't orders of magnitude different from what it is today. Indeed, considering how many people live in cities - offsetting the weirdos who live dramatically far away from any neighbors - things are much better for kids today.

Also, there's a difference between social media and contact. There's nothing preventing Australian kids from texting, calling, or even video calling each other. They don't need Facebook specifically. Stuff like TikTok isn't about person-to-person contact. It's about attention-adhesion.

Comment Re: People do the same. (Score 2) 87

Indeed it would sound very easy, except that human movements aren't random, and with proper statistical models it's quickly possible to determine someone who didn't know the difference between natural restricted and biased variance and randomness.

You're the target audience here: the people who think that this "sounds incredibly easy" will be the first to have their bots blocked. Yeah it'll be worked around, but the bar is raised in the meantime.

You're not wrong. But the same data that describes what is and isn't human input can be used to create activity that matches that data. If Cloudflare has gathered the information, someone else can as well.

This mirrors the spam arms-race that started a couple decades ago.

Comment Re:Oh no the Russians! (Score 1) 45

How exactly do you determine a camera is on a major road or route from the internet? This sounds more conspiracy theory than reality when you look at the difficulty in correlating cameras with locations.

What?

There's a whole slew of "games" that involve looking at a Google Street View image and figuring out where in the world it is. Timed competing teams try to get it as close as possible before the other team does.

Point is... if you can see what the camera sees, it's not so hard to figure out where it's at. You won't get them all, and almost none of them will be useful to you, but if you filter by geo-IP and get access to enough cameras, it's worth the time.

Comment Re:Good luck with that (Score 4, Informative) 98

So the problem with these things is they Don't really work. Google admitted that at a congressional hearing.

I'm going to go ahead and ask what - specifically - Google "admitted" in said hearing. I doubt it's "don't really work" but leave open the possibility that's what was admitted, so please provide quotes.

They're basically remote controlled cars with really really fancy driver assist features.

Really? It's my understanding that they're autonomous the vast majority of the time, remote-controlled in very rare circumstances, and driver-assist never. Passengers in these cars aren't permitted to manually drive them, so driver-assist isn't a thing. I grant that I may be misinformed, but again, I invite you to provide details for your assertion.

Frighteningly

Well, yes. The media - be it traditional or social - is rather good at that, regardless of objective statistics.

it appears that they are sometimes piloted from the Philippines.

That feels like an odd thing to be frightened of. It's not Mars where there are minutes of latency. Why would the Philippines - specifically - be any more (or less) concerning than if the drivers were in a building a kilometer away from the vehicle?

Publicly Google will tell you that's not true but that's not what they told Congress when they were under oath...

That's not been a secret for ages now. In complicated situations the autonomous system can't cope with, it can call in human assistance. I've not heard that's a common or nominal mode of operation, but maybe I'm lacking in some facts. Which - unsurprisingly - you are invited to provide.

The obvious problem with all this is that they're going to have problems with ambulances and such.

That's the obvious problem? I'd've thought there are plenty, but fine. We've all know there are a lot of refinements and adjustments needed, both for the car operators and the rest of us outside of them.

And that's the waymo ones that are the best and most functional. The ones from Tesla which are so bad even Tesla doesn't really want them on the roads are a disaster waiting to happen. It does however keep their stock price up...

Sure.

Frankly these things shouldn't be on the road with us but it's not like we have any say in anything anymore

Okay, I'm no fan of these things and wouldn't volunteer to ride in one but really, this is exaggeration. The actual safety records have shown they're marginally better than human drivers. Sure, there are outliers, exceptions and downright frustrating things like what this article is about but as far as I've had any information, they're just that... outliers. Human drivers are the ones I really worry about, personally.

Comment Re:I thought AI sold itself? (Score 1) 17

You promised AI would be getting rid of these worthless, filthy, loathsome "employees", and now you're sending more of them!

Yup.

"You're not burning through tokens fast enough to make any of this profitable for us so we're sending someone to show you how to waste resources faster."

Remember folks... every time you ask ChatGPT what Ford's web site is or ask Claude to paste in a buggle version of someone's broken code for you to debug, or ask Grok for pictures of some naked totally-adults, you're driving the price of RAM and storage up.

Comment Re:Decreased obesity (Score 1) 132

In the event you don't know /sarc is short for sarcasm, I'll try to illustrate it. Take everything they said and reverse the meaning entirely.

Notice how you're just repeating exactly what they said sarcastically?

I'd say "woosh" but I doubt that word will carry any meaning anyway

I don't normally reply to ACs but this one is worth it.

Yes. Sarcasm indicates opposition to the statements being made. However that means the person I replied to doesn't believe climate change etc are harmful. Which they are.

When you tell a teenager to do something - for instance putting on their seat belt - they often reply sarcastically with things like "yeah, because we're totally going to get in an accident and I'm going to get flung out the window. As if." They don't believe what they are saying. They believe the opposite of what they are saying.

So hey, yeah, when someone posts things that are fundamentally accurate, or at least accurate enough to be considered and adds a sarcasm flag they are fair game for correction.

So thank you for the attempted correction but I'm afraid you're off base considering the ways sarcasm is used.

Comment Re:Decreased obesity (Score 5, Informative) 132

How can this be? Climate is killing everyone, air pollution is worse, microplastics is worser, everyone is so poor that they can't eat, everything that trump or musk does is fatal, every single thing is linked to icreased death. Erm /sarc

In the event that you don't know/understand the answer already, I'll try to illustrate it.

Imagine life-expectancy is say... 80 years and there are exactly 3 causes of death named A, B, and C with evenly-distributed probability.

Imagine we eliminate CoD A entirely. That changes odds of dying of CoD B or C from 33% to 50%.

Imagine also that by eliminating CoD A it adds an average of 5 years of life before death, putting L-E at 85 years.

Imagine we start injecting people with a lightly toxic substance (metaphor for microplastics etc), which damages the body but doesn't kill. Say that knocks 3 years off the average lifespan, dropping L-E to 82 years.

All of the things you're reading about can be true at the same time because words mean things. Bad things are bad, and the take-home is that the bad things are what is keeping things from being better than they are. As another illustration, getting a raise is a good thing, someone making a shitty decision that drives up inflation is a bad thing, and it's possible for you to have marginally more buying power after the two but the shitty decision still sucks.

Comment Re:Quitters (Score 1) 94

They just didn't AI hard enough!

The real value happens when you're 7 LLMs deep with agentic whatnots! So Simple. Just needed more AI!

I sense great sarcasm but...

"...Ford is using the rehired gray beard engineers to train younger staff — and, to reprogram its AI tools."

These re-hires are going to train new engineers and the software that will replace them. Ford is very much going to be using more AI, as you say.

Comment Re:And water (Score 1) 330

ffs psycho go outside and meet some real people. i'm an average dude so unless you happen to be very influential or in some exalted position of power, what we know or believe doesn't fucking matter in the grand scheme of life if it contravenes what drives the hoi polloi

If it doesn't matter what we know or believe, why not chose to believe what you know, regardless of the elites you invoke here?

Once again... you are in control of you. You've been called out on spreading misinformation and FUD. You've admitted it. Now man up and stop it. Continuing to spout the nonsense is random. Contributing to the shittiness of the world... why?

Me? I'm in the real world, with real people, and I do my best to not make their lives worse with meaningless lies. Psycho? I think not.

That said, I think this has run its course. Feel free to pop in the last word but I'm pretty comfortable letting my position stand.

Comment Re:And water (Score 1) 330

i've been around quite a long time and know only 1 ICE car that caught fire that wasn't in an accident. of the ones that were, that's 2 more, the sum total of over 6 decades of living mostly in big cities. of the handful of EV owners i know, two so far have had battery fires, 1 Tesla and 1 Chevy Bolt. quote stats all you like but people's personal experience will always outweigh them

As long as you've got anecdotes, statistics and facts don't matter. Got it.

You're cable of being a rational person. Just elect to do so. This isn't subtle and subconscious. It's not like going to the grocery store and they say "limit 12" for an item that's on sale so you mentally start at 12 and count down to how many you might want versus starting at 0 and counting up to how many you want. You've seen the stats. They're readily available. You know the facts. So whenever you feel the urge to say - or type - anything that isn't in line with the facts... don't. "Oh... it's so hard... my personal observations tell me the world isn't round but I know it is... so maybe I should just not post flat-Earther stuff."

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