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Comment Re:We need humility, not arrogance (Score 1) 111

Within 30 years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman inteligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. Is such progress avoidable?"

Let's see..1993 + 30 = 2023. A few months after ChatGPT 3.5 was released! A funny coincidence (or not?), and nobody would claim that ChatGPT is superhuman, but Vinge was on point.

I enjoyed his books very much, but no he was not on point. He claimed we'd have the means to create superhuman intelligence before now, and you have just admitted that nobody would claim that has been achieved, 3 years after he claimed it could happen, and despite billions being spent to attempt it. So no, that was just another religious opinion unsupported by science, and you showed here that you have enough information to know that yet still somehow didn't get it.

You frequently accuse those you disagree with of magical thinking. IMHO, the real magical thinking is the belief that human-type intelligence is unique and can never be replicated, simulated, or surpassed.

That is also magical thinking, but no more so than the idea that by throwing circuits with complexity similar to that which we have discovered in the human brain so far, we will inevitably create consciousness. That is not just wishful thinking, it's clueless. We keep finding more complexity in the brain, so it's still a moving target which is enough to defeat such an argument on its own, and transistors are not neurons which is also enough to prove it's a folly.

Comment Re:Once again, la Presidenta loses (Score 1) 109

Catalysts make a bigger difference to air quality than the gasoline blend because unburned hydrocarbons are the most harmful automotive emission in every category, whether you mean health impact, GWP, or even just how offensive the air becomes to breathe, and catalysts are there specifically to cause them to burn.

Comment Re:Age of Electricity? (Score 1) 109

While this is true, they will just shut most of the added power capacity down because it's now not profitable enough to operate, and it's going to be more of AI's toxic legacy.

Most of the suddenly discounted GPUs are going to be from Nvidia, which is irritating because their Linux drivers suck :)

Comment Re: Good. (Score 1) 66

Well, that's because centuries of data say that a free-market economy does work for all the citizens

That seems true if you just ignore all the people it doesn't work for, and all of the externalities that come from it. Which is of course exactly how those studies work. They are sufficient to fool the fools, which is all they need to do.

Comment Re:Equilibrium (Score 1) 47

It's very possible AI will open entire categories of employment we can't dream of yet

The whole point of AI is for it to do work instead of us. Fantasizing about it creating new jobs for us to spend our lives doing instead of enjoying existing is really quite sad. We should be envisioning what we can spend our lives doing instead of slaving away for someone else's profit in hopes that we will be permitted to retire someday.

Comment Re:Equilibrium (Score 1) 47

A better fix is redistribution of remaining work across the entire workforce.

Better for who?

During the 1930s, governments mandated shorter workweeks and banned child labor which forced a return to equilibrium

Yes, that certainly helped prevent civil unrest.

But now we're not going to have enough work for everyone to work full time, and the people who own everything won't let anyone have enough money to live on if they don't do that. Actually, they won't let lots of people who DO work full time have enough to live on.

Do you have a proposal as to how people can get their needs met without eating the rich?

Comment Re:likely no criminal liability (Score 1) 84

The encyclopedia doesn't explain how to make explosives because that's not its job. The anarchist's cookbook sort of does but it's dangerous to follow because some of the recipes are very bad, but even that has been determined to not be illegal. And some of the recipes WILL work, and those aren't illegal either. If you go to the library you can get a plan for a nuclear weapon or a gun.

It's not just information being provided, it's how it's couched. The LLM presents its bullshit to you as a gift in celebration of your intelligence.

Comment Re:Chatbot Lies (Score 1) 84

If the tool does not have an intent, it cannot discourage anything.

Not true. We design tools with warnings to discourage misuse. We can design a software tool the same way. It can detect keywords and issue warnings. But you can't do it reliably at the LLM level because you cannot do ANYTHING reliably with a LLM, you need to wrap something around it.

Comment Re: Not really (Score 1) 91

"The biggest problem with education in the US is the educators. There is no getting past that. Record spending per pupil"

Too bad you know nothing about anything. Educators are buying school supplies because they don't have enough budget to run their classes. If you actually knew any teachers you wouldn't talk this ignorant shit. It's administration and consultants that are eating up all of the funding.

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