You seem to be both skeptical of AI advancement ("the new models are not noticeably better than their competition") and fearful of AI advancement ("the *actual* threat of AGIs"). Why would new models that are "not noticeably better" lead to a scary threat of "AGI"?
Loosely, AGI is defined as " A machine with broad, human-level intelligence that can learn, reason, and adapt to unfamiliar situations without needing new programming." So how is that different from "regular" AI?
Perhaps this: "Current systems are "narrow AI" (like chatbots or image generators) designed for specific tasks. An AGI could transfer knowledge between unrelated fields, use common sense, and solve open-ended real-world problems." https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-de...
The problem is this: Going from "narrow AI" to "broad-spectrum AI" is no easy task. All automation ever, has been forced to focus on narrow problems, because we vastly underestimate the challenges of broad-spectrum automation solutions. For example, factory robots are specifically programmed to perform one task. General-purpose robots are still far, far away. In the same way, special-purpose AI is quite capable, but general-purpose AI is a long, long ways away.