Comment Re:False optimism - no permanent tech advantages (Score 2) 230
Another mistake that many Western observers make is thinking that Russia will seek an exit if they can just "save face." Puttin doesn't care about "face" because this is existential for him. The economy will collapse if the war is shut down. War spending is now into double digits of the GDP. He's in his 70s. This war is his last chance to realize his life dream of reuniting the USSR and becoming "Vlad the Great." He can't just accept a fig leaf agreement and let it go because that's the end of that dream and likely his rule. Even the offer of "just give up the Donbas" probably isn't real. If Ukraine said "yes", they'd ask for more because they can't actually accept a real peace.
This is why the fastest way to end the conflict after Putin's ICC arrest warrant was issued would have been for the US and/or EU to fund a $billion+ bounty to any group that delivered him to the ICC to face the charges. His own security would sell him out in days, and if not, he'd be so paranoid he probably couldn't function.