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Comment Re:eating less (Score 2) 256

This is simply not true. About 20 years ago, I lost the ability to walk. (Also sit, stand, etc.) I gained a lot of weight.

Three years ago, I was put on an exercise regime that made it so that I can walk again. It is very intense - so intense that I get tendonitis of my joints once ever few months (and they don't let me stop exercising then either...).

I have not lost any weight at all. I look better, and obviously feel better, but my mass is more, not less.

Comment Re:So global warming is a farce after all (Score 1) 313

Thanks for posting this link. The linked report demonstrates the issue precisely.

On page 7 of the pdf summary report, it talks about the "bad stuff" that is predicted due to climate change. The major data points given are that crop yields will fall. This is in direct opposition to all the science I have read on the topic, for example Obama's EPA.gov site says "Agriculture and fisheries are highly dependent on the climate. Increases in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) can increase some crop yields in some places."

They try to paint a highly negative picture, but then provide the data in chart below that. Crop yields are steadily increasing.

Whenever I look into the source data, I see this kind of thing. Dire consequences predicted, but then even a cursory examination of the data show that the prediction has been falsified.

Data points:

*) Fish failures predicted - real data shows that the fish simply move north/south (https://www.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-agriculture-and-food-supply)
*) Crop failure predicted - real data shows steady growth of crop yield (https://www.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-agriculture-and-food-supply)
*) Land flooding predicted - real data shows that the land movement effects swamp any issues with the sea rising (Florida has no problem, Louisiana has major problems) (https://www.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-coastal-areas)

Does anyone have a prediction of "bad stuff" made in an IPCC report that has actually happened? (I am limiting "bad stuff" to things that my children's children will actually care about) The old reports are now old enough that there predictions should be apparent by now. I have reviewed the reports, and the cases I looked at (sea level rise, crop failures, fishing) were all falsified by what happened in reality.

If the IPCC has no predictive power, why should we use it to guide policy?

Comment Re:fascinatingly crafted reply... (Score 4, Funny) 302

Yes, but are you a climate change HOAX denier?

I posit that this is an area on which we can all agree!

Either you are a (climate change) (HOAX denier), or you are a (climate change HOAX) (denier). But we are now all (climate change HOAX denier)s! So let us bask in our reconciliation!

Comment Re:More condoms less climate change (Score 1) 180

Looking at how this study was constructed, I believe most of the reported decline is likely just selection bias.

They did no original data collection - they just reviewed existing data sources. Unfortunately, the existing data sources are from conservation movements. They do not care about the New York rat population (which is doing just fine), those organizations are trying to track the species that are struggling.

So if a species is struggling to survive, it was far more likely to be included in the report than if the species was doing well. Selection bias.

It's depressing how rarely you see good statistics in science these days.

Comment Re:fallacy (Score 3, Insightful) 177

The problem with that approach is that you will tweak the algorithm until it works in 1996.

In other words, you will incorporate 1996 into the test set.

This is the big problem with almost all climate studies, and the reason why people that understand statistics really hate the current climate "science" as it is done. You really do need to make a prediction, and then test the prediction. If you get it wrong, you cannot re-try against the same data set until it works.

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