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Comment Used car salesman (Score 1) 42

Yeah but radio ads are generic and not 2 way conversations. They are not an asking what you are saying and twisting it towards explaining why you need product X.

It will be as reliable as asking a used car salesman for advice. Somehow it's gonna be advice about how a car would for me

Comment Virtual batteries (Score 1) 76

the core challenge of renewable energy is it's inconstancy. Physical batteries are a bandaid and long distance grids are a council of despair. The real solution for reliable renewable energy is to just build out four or five times the peak load. Then when it's cloudy or not windy you still have way more power than you need to supply the peak load. But of course this has the problem that you just spent four of five times as much capital. And that's a non-starter. But the easy, though bad solution, to this is bitcoin batteries. Just mine bitcoin with the excess and shut off the mining when it's cloudy .

Now along some AI. What a match made in heaven. A completely portable task. Move the calculation to whatever data center currently has power whether it's Norway or Texas. You can soak up all that excess renwable power. Plus there's plenty of non-real time batch jobs you can run that can adapt. For example training.

Perfect.

Shame the US decided to lose the AI power race by nixing renewables

Comment Re:The irony (Score 1) 120

I really need to get some self discipline. As much as I try I keep checking Reddit. I loath myself. The only good thing to happen in the last few years was Elon buying twitter. That made getting unhooked on that time waste easy. But Reddit became my methadone.

I've resolved that I'm going to start hitting you tube for educational videos. Gonna learn Lie Group theory!

The problem is Trump. Everyday I have to see what fresh hell he's caused. Life was so placid when we had Biden or Obama or George Bush. Like them or loathe them it wasn't insanity.

Comment Modern monetary theory (Score 1) 270

Let's consider history and debt. The economies of the world have passed through several stages. Prior to the gold standard things could only scale so far before it failed. The gold standard reintroduced stability and fostered even more international trade. The principle of the gold standard was to maintain the peg of a currency to gold. This worked really well up till world war one. Its weaknesses had started to become carat before that where the need for currency expansion could not be satisfied till the next unpredictable gold rush discovery. As a result under capitalized banks became at risk and eventually their were crises that led into world war 1 and utterly failed after it leading to the great depression

We got out of the Great Depression largely in part ti temporary suspension of the gold standard.
A new way of pegging currency emerged with the Brettin woods agreement. All countries would peg to the us dollars and use treasuries as the medium of international money transfer not gold. The us would remain on the gold standard because it could afford to buy gold with all those treasury purchases.

But eventually this too saturated and limited growth. Under Nixon the us left the good standard.

The goal of the fed central bank was not to maintain the dollar per se since the dollar stood alone as the international benchmark. But instead the goal of the Fed was to curb inflation and curb unemployment. The weakness is the Fed only can use monetary policy not fiscal policy. As a result those two goals are in conflict since they cannot be decoupled with a single point of control ( monetary policy without fiscal policy)

But somehow we've done a great job using that system.

But now the international system has again scaled to a new problem which is deficit spending is reaching a point where debt service is a burden.

The next evolution of this is well known. It was beta tested in The depression when the us both went off the gold standard briefly but also excersized both monetary policy abs fiscal policy in concert.

The approach is called modern monetary theory. It has its critics but critics fixate on sound bite summaries of mmt and really fail to grasp that actually it not only can work but has worked in all the instances it has been tried ( us, Italy, Venezuela all recovered from crises under mmt approaches)

The fact that Europe is having problems is in fact due to the euro not allowing fiscal policy since states can't control their own money supply any longer.

The Fed not true problem with mmt is tgat one cannot actually trust politicians to conduct proper discipline in fiscal policy. That has to be solved before it can be implemented. What allowed its implementation in the past was the automatic and not political and transient spending needed to meet crises like the Great Depression. But to do it outside of unemployment periods is dangerous unless it can be done by an apolitical entity -- something similar to the Fed but with different powers and madates.

In any case the bottom line is this, under mmt a debt equal to your gdp is not a bad thing! No need to panic.

Comment Modern monetary theory. (Score 1) 270

The economies of the world have passed through several stages. Prior to the gold standard things could only scale so far before it failed. The gold standard reintroduced stability and fostered even more international trade. The principle of the gold standard was to maintain the peg of a currency to gold. This worked really well up till world war one. Its weaknesses had started to become carat before that where the need for currency expansion could not be satisfied till the next unpredictable gold rush discovery. As a result under capitalized banks became at risk and eventually their were crises that led into world war 1 and utterly failed after it leading to the great depression

We got out of the Great Depression largely in part ti temporary suspension of the gold standard.
A new way of pegging currency emerged with the Brettin woods agreement. All countries would peg to the us dollars and use treasuries as the medium of international money transfer not gold. The us would remain on the gold standard because it could afford to buy gold with all those treasury purchases.

But eventually this too saturated and limited growth. Under Nixon the us left the good standard.

The goal of the fed central bank was not to maintain the dollar per se since the dollar stood alone as the international benchmark. But instead the goal of the Fed was to curb inflation and curb unemployment. The weakness is the Fed only can use monetary policy not fiscal policy. As a result those two goals are in conflict since they cannot be decoupled with a single point of control ( monetary policy without fiscal policy)

But somehow we've done a great job using that system.

But now the international system has again scaled to a new problem which is deficit spending is reaching a point where debt service is a burden.

The next evolution of this is well known. It was beta tested in The depression when the us both went off the gold standard briefly but also excersized both monetary policy abs fiscal policy in concert.

The approach is called modern monetary theory. It has its critics but critics fixate on sound bite summaries of mmt and really fail to grasp that actually it not only can work but has worked in all the instances it has been tried ( us, Italy, Venezuela all recovered from crises under mmt approaches)

The fact that Europe is having problems is in fact due to the euro not allowing fiscal policy since states can't control their own money supply any longer.

The Fed not true problem with mmt is tgat one cannot actually trust politicians to conduct proper discipline in fiscal policy. That has to be solved before it can be implemented. What allowed its implementation in the past was the automatic and not political and transient spending needed to meet crises like the Great Depression. But to do it outside of unemployment periods is dangerous unless it can be done by an apolitical entity -- something similar to the Fed but with different powers and madates.

In any case the bottom line is this, under mmt a debt equal to your gdp is not a bad thing! No need to panic.

Comment Re: WTF is alpha (Score 1) 35

Itâ(TM)s a measure of profitability relative to other similar investment options over a period of time.

Grossly oversimplified example: if the overall market is returning, letâ(TM)s say, 4% year over year, and a specific investment (stock, bond, whatever) is returning 5% for that same year, the alpha on that investment is 1%; itâ(TM)s the gain youâ(TM)d realize above and beyond just putting your money in the overall market.

Alpha is a big big deal to pro investors; finding large alpha opportunities makes you considerably more attractive to money looking for investment opportunities.

Comment Re: MAGA! (Score 3, Interesting) 321

I concur. The unemployment rate is about 4% and even the more padded U6 unemployment rate is below 5%
Those are normal.
Under condition when unemployment rates are normal the primary job of the federal reserve is to bring down inflation. It's not simply a good idea. It's their mandate

The fact that there are more jobseekers than jobs is also close to normal. There's always a mismatch between jobs and jobseekers.

It may well be that those jobs are demotions or involve moving etc..

So the Fed has done everthing correctly.

But now they are on toes because we have the immigrant labor leaving and hightarrufs.

While those might increase the number of jobs available it might not fund takers. And both will cause supply side inflation. Simultaneously extending the tax cuts and the debt ceiling means the high rate of pumping debt into the economy will continue.

So the Fed is in an uncharted territory . It could mean high inflation is coming. Most likely. But it could mean a recession. You love the rate in opposite directions there! Most likely is both: stagflation. Which is awful. We did the stagflation experiment in the early 70s and tried both spending into it and later raising interest rates sky high. Only the latter worked.

Fed is exactly doing the right Thing by being watchful

Comment I didn't know how bad it was until I tried to help (Score 1) 220

I haven’t meaningfully used Windows since September 2023. I'm approaching two years on disability and am about to take early retirement for health reasons. My work laptop (still running Windows) has sat unopened this whole time. Once the paperwork is finalised, it’ll go back and good riddance to it.

I use Mint, Debian, and OMV across my machines. My daily driver is a Framework 13 with an AMD board and 64GB of DDR5 RAM. Total overkill, but I love it. Even when I code, I barely touch its resources, but that's likely down to the fact that I rarely compile anything. In my work life, I was a data scientist, so I coded in Python and R, and when I code now, it's Python or BASH scripting itch-scratching utilities. Anyhow, just browsing Slashdot and syncing with NextCloud, my CPU idles around 2%, RAM at 4%, and it's running at a balmy 41C. Why add bloatware to that?

Now contrast that with a family friend I recently helped. She's almost 80 and only uses her computer for email and browsing. Her CPU was pegged at 100% and her 4GB of RAM was constantly maxed out. I’d already replaced her spinning drive with an SSD a while back, and recently upgraded her to 16GB of spare DDR3, yes, DDR3, I had lying around. Still, her system crawled. Why? Windows telemetry alone was eating 49% of her CPU. We cleaned up startup junk and malware, but she’s still stuck on Windows 10, on a dated Lenovo G505 that was low-end even when she bought it. If that's Windows 10, how much worse is 11, with its Copilot interference, Microsoft malware, and nearly irremovable junk?

I honestly don’t understand why non-technical users who only browse the web feel locked into Windows. It's like people with limited computing resources feel the need to give away their processing power to corporations that monetise their data and make their machine unusable for what? a familiar UI? Her only installed application is Firefox. She doesn’t even use a stand-alone email client. Meanwhile, I keep an old first-gen i7 Toshiba Tecra running Debian 12 with XFCE around just for its optical drive. That chip is from 2009 and it still feels faster than her 2015 Windows 10 machine.

This isn’t 2001 any more. Running Linux on the desktop isn't niche, just practical. Most web traffic is bots, spam and a few portals anyway. It just sucks that Windows is so abusive to the folks who buy it and they as for plead for 'more please'.

I think it’s time I updated my .sig. Spammers have moved on from polluting blogs...

Comment Re: Kiss Monetary policy and the USA goodbye (Score 2) 52

I understand your knee jerk intuition about crypto currency. But very earnestly I suggest learning a bit about monetary policy. It's indispensable. And after that you may want to read about bretton woods and how banks in different countries actually can trade money to each other. The US treasury and its impact on monetary policy enables this. It's not just a methodology in the sense that bitcoin is a method for moving money. Monetary policy is how countries can perform the miracle of Keynesian economics to regenerate Growth in a downturn. That cannot ever be done ever without fiat currency and a central bank. Period. This was. Why for example Germany plunged in to pre-hitler ruin after world war 1. There was no way to climb out of turned down economy when you had no gold reserves (France took them). Germany only managed to recover when they pegged their mark to a kilo of wheat-- not a long term solution but a desperate move that mostly worked. But the economic malaise didn't end till Hitler started spending money into the economy. That was made possible by moving off the gold standard prior to Hitler.

Without monetary policy you are left with the austerity of Austrian economics which pretty much inverts the rational of monetary policy and loses all it's advantages.

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