X-D

I mean, the monkeys may eventually release the product but it's not reliable nor pretty to see.

The thing you're missing is that there's no one at the wheel.

No consciousness is there setting goals and deciding to follow or ignore instructions and constrains. Its just a bunch of separate processes (they call them 'agents' now) with loosely defined tasks trying to do their own thing. The process instructed to hack computers may not know anything about the process instructed to intrude a specific server, which may not know anything about the process charged with keeping the exercise within ethical constraints. They may be individually quite capable, but there's no global intention guiding the system.

Each agent will simply chunk its way forward following the partial, half-forgotten instructions that reach its own context and randomly generating actions placed at the top probability given its input window. Its like releasing a troop of monkeys in an office and hoping they'll somehow manage to coordinate your next product release.

Precisely. I've stopped counting the number of times I contacted customer support, started tby mentioning that I already read the FAQ and, no, my case isn't one of those. Whatever. They copy-paste a FAQ answer, often closing the issue as SOLVED at the same time. Since chatbots, it's even worse, and typing "I wanna talk to a customer support person" does't lead to results because... oh crap, another outsourced idiot copy-pasting FAQ answers and calling it a day. The whole idea that someone only calls or files a support ticket as a last resort, because the FAQ didn't tell them what they need to know, doesn't seem to register.

In fact it would be great if you could control all that information and provide it to apps and websites on a need-to-know basis. Provided its really under your control rather than handing it to the largest advertising company in the world who can thus prof with your data by choosing with whom and when to share it.

Unfortunately developers seem uninterested in the open, distributed protocols that exist to provide this same feature, so it will be adopted by the masses only when big platforms include them in their vertical stacks.

Every story about a wrong conviction is a story about the death penalty

... sadly for the Americans, the rest of the world now knows they can't count on a US based provider for this kind of thing any more.

It was uncomfortable enough relying so heavily on American software back when it couldn't be switched off remotely on the say so of an idiot. Today it's an intolerable risk.

Seales is using conventional machine learning techniques that the article's author has conflated into the buzzword of the day, artificial intelligence.

Machine Learning *is* an AI technique. Artificial Intelligence has always been an umbrella imprecise word to define a large class of very different algorithms, with the only trait in common that the programmer doesn't know a precise sequence of steps to find the solution but rather the data-driven program explores the inputs to try and find useful results.

Saying that a program is AI isn't wrong, it's just not very informative about what approach was used.

...a lot of people online were saying there was an upcoming event called The Halvening that would change everything.

I guess this is it?

Seems to me 'dead' for a taxi isn't 'dead' for a static power bank. If I'm running a taxi I've got hard limits on how large my battery can be and how heavy, and I want to maximise the mileage I get between charges, because while my taxi is charging it's not out on the road earning money. When that battery is keeping only maybe 80% of its original design charge, and now I have to schedule one recharge too many per working day? Bang goes my business plan, so I'm replacing it.

If I'm storing energy for the grid I'm a lot less worried about that. It only stores 80% of what it did when new? Better than nothing, and the taxi firm is selling them off cheap. I'll stack them up!

Perhaps not, but if you pick your moment right then permanently stopping the work of some of the most talented researchers there could very well make a difference. A spectacular incident that makes the headlines might also deter others - bright graduates might decide it's far safer to take up a different line of work, subcontractors and suppliers might decide doing business with AI firms isn't worth the danger, investors might figure the increased risk of loss of premises and equipment into their projections, that kind of thing.

If people genuinely believed AI takeover was a real, present and imminent threat, then they wouldn't just be publishing essays online, they'd be forming direct action groups, along the full spectrum of campaigning: all the way from awareness raising publicity campaigns, through picketing, blockades and sit-ins, up through Black Bloc type actions, right up to menacing intimidation campaigns and terrifying physical force operations. But I don't see any Butlerian Jihad getting started. Which tells me they don't actually believe this at all; they're just bigging up their own importance. 'Oh yes, our technology is so incredibly powerful, if it were done wrong then imagine what could happen! Keep the money coming to make sure it's done right instead! Then all that power can be ours instead!... I mean, uh, yours, Mr Investor sir.'

AI stock valuations don't make a bit of sense unless the technology turns out to be every bit as powerful as that. If they don't keep that thought alive, then the bubble bursts right now. That's what all this hot air is about, and that's why nobody really pulls a Miles Dyson at the AI research lab.

The interesting thing about the Terminator movies is that when AI researcher Miles Dyson became convinced that his work had a high probability of resulting in an artificial general intelligence attempting to replace humanity, he did not go and post a ten thousand word essay on LessWrong about how he had updated his timeline and p(doom) estimates and discussing the full Bayesian analysis of the situation. He went to the lab that very night with some heavily armed companions and he blew the place up.

I keep hearing that one AI researcher or another claims that they believe as Dyson came to believe. Until one of them takes similar action, I simply do not believe that they actually think their research carries such a risk.

You have access to the lab where the work is being done? You regularly meet in person with leading researchers and talents driving the project forward? You are an American and you have the Second Amendment? And the entire future light cone is at stake? Quintillions of hypothetical future lives riding on the outcome of this project here and now?

What's the most effective, altruistic thing you could do for them?

Yeah, exactly. I've never heard of anyone shooting up their AI lab. Which tells me they don't believe their AI is at all likely to wipe us all out.

... and then to secure Ukraine into the European economic and defence structure as firmly as possible. At this point they're far ahead of NATO on how to use drones and robots in war, and they're clearly getting very, very good at building them too. European military and aerospace people both will have a lot to gain from cooperation with Ukraine after the war is over.

As cadets were so memorably told a generation ago: remember always, your duty is clear - to build and maintain those robots!

Sounds good - DDG is pretty bad lately, it typically just returns a list of AI generated SEO slop pages, so I've been switching back to Google in a private tab for a lot of things. Might be worth trying this one now!

If they leave them there, the next administration might be able to switch them back on and start gathering woke climate science data again.

Computers didn't start with apps. At first they ran 'programs' with no OS at all. Having computation evolve around the statistical inference model of LLMs is just the next step in that progression.
It also happens to be a wet dream for tech company leaders. An OS that runs on buzzwords? That will attract humongous financing until some engineers find a way to make something that actually resembles the premise; at which point the tech lead gets saluted as a visionary by their fellow millionaires