AI doesn't really matter. It's just that hectobillionaire bizbros aren't especially smart.
They're just exceptionally lucky. If you have a hundred million players playing the same game of Monopoly, almost all of them are going to lose. But somebody will win! And then they have everything. And since we all have to live on this Monopoly board the rest of our lives, people, bizbros included, want there to be a logical reason for this one particular guy to have so much when everybody else has so little. And also, everybody else needs to score a piece of that bizbro's everything in order to stay on the board. He's so powerful, it would be madness to cross him now that he has everything.
So there's tons of incentives for everyone to believe, or pretend to believe, that the bizbro is incredibly, historically smart. And that includes the bizbro himself. Smart about what? Business! AI? Sure, that's a business. Good enough! So Mr. Bizbro now has a million fans and sycophants and hangers-on telling him he's a genius. Since the pot he's won is bigger than anyone's ever won before, they tell him he's the greatest genius in history.
But, again, he isn't. So that's a lie. The biggest lie in history so far!
Eventually, the lie comes crashing down. If the hectobillionaire bizbro were a normal business guy, he would be ruined, and that would be the end of it. But he has a hundred billion dollars. It would take a thousand lifetimes to run out of money. So he doesn't actually suffer any of the consequences of the deception around his intelligence. But now he's scared! So he lingers on and on and on, flailing wildly, causing more and more damage to civilization, everyone making more and bigger excuses for him, until he, inshallah, finally dies and leaves the world to the next group of psychopaths to plunder.
The upshot is: If you think these oligarchs are acting crazy and causing societal damage here at the top of their game, just wait until the market finally drops out from under them.
Since users of these websites are making it their business to make the predictions they've bet on come true, it seems to me that big part of gambling on prediction markets is gambling on how other people gambling on the prediction market is going to affect gambling on the prediction market.
"And do you think (fop that I am) that I could be the Scarlet Pumpernickel?" -- Looney Tunes, The Scarlet Pumpernickel (1950, Chuck Jones)