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Comment Vaccine researchers discover conflict of interest? (Score 2) 44

This is really no different from many other areas in which you can have conflicts of interest. For example, sports! And the answer isn't to ban betting, it's to ban betting by people who have a conflict of interest. This is well-trod ground.

I'm not particularly a fan of Kalshi or Polymarket and don't really care if they exist or not. My point is just that this isn't really any different from anything else.

Comment Re:Wha (Score 1) 28

All of those potential "solutions" require more power. And what does it take to produce power? That's right: water. And lots of it for nuke, coal, gas and geothermal.

Solar + Wind + Battery doesn't require water, and that is what Google is planning to use. I did some searching and found that they've funded additional buildout of a large renewable generation plant (solar + wind + battery) in Gujarat, plus transmission lines to bring the power the 1100 miles from Gujarat. The Gujarat plant is already in progress, the government is investing $70B in it, and it's a particularly good area for renewable generation because the seasonal wind cycle is exactly opposite the seasonal solar cycle, so as the days get shorter and solar generation declines, the wind ramps up, and vice versa.

Comment Re:Suggests abiogenesis is easy (Score 3, Insightful) 84

If this is accurate, this suggests that abiogenesis is easy once one has a stable, watery environment, since it happened twice on Earth.

That was my first thought too. (Assuming the article is correct - all kinds of stuff gets published that doesn't hold up in the longer run.)

One potential conclusion about the Fermi paradox [...]

Remember that time is also big. Suppose that there have been 1000 interstellar civilizations in our galaxy during the past 5 billion years, and that each one lasted a million years before collapsing. How many would be active right now?

Frankly, I don't consider it a paradox at all. We've explored approximately 0% of our galaxy and found nothing. That doesn't tell us much.

Comment Lidar is nice, not required (Score 2) 208

I think the Rivian approach is the best. They're basically copying the Tesla model of having their fleet send the sensor recordings back and then using them as training data. While they're far behind right now, they'll catch up quickly, as they can copy a lot of the basic technology that's now established instead of having to invent everything from scratch and make wrong decisions along the way. The difference is Rivian is including lidar, so they just include the matched video and lidar recordings as a larger training data set. I'm convinced that if the price of lidar was more like it is today back when Tesla started selling FSD in 2016, then that's exactly what Tesla would have done, but Tesla is now stuck with their solution with ten million cars already on the road.

But in clear weather conditions, I don't think lidar really helps that much. Most human accidents would be avoided if drivers had better situational awareness and didn't have gaps in paying attention, and the cameras solve that.

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