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Comment Not schmucks (Score 1) 80

You see, by passing dead batteries off to these schmucks Waymo completely avoids any battery disposal problems. In fact, they pay for Waymo's waste.

They get to pretend that they are contributing to the green movement for a year or two before the batteries are so useless that they must be dumped or "recycled". But, that's not Waymo's problem.

It's a huge win, for Waymo.

Older EVs don't "die" like the cells in your flashlight, they lose charge capacity over time.

Specifically, once the battery goes down to below 80% of initial capacity, it's better for the company to swap them out for newer batteries.

However, 80% capacity is still a lot of energy storage, it's just that the energy density per weight (or volume) isn't as good for EVs. If your energy storage doesn't care so much about weight or size (concrete floor in an industrial building), then these things still store a *lot* of energy.

Also note: capacity degrades with "cycles", and grid storage does not cycle the batteries very much or very low. Taking the Australian Hornsdale grid storage installation for reference, they found that the grid battery would step in and smooth over what we would consider very short and very slight voltage drops, which meant that their peaker plants didn't have to spin up and down as frequently, which ultimately saved them $150 million (*) over the first two years, against an installation cost of $66 million (USD).

Since then there have been a number of other installations, so we have good data on what the expected outcome will be.

The term "schmucks" in your post is perhaps unwarranted...

* Can't tell whether this is CAD or USD from their website.

Comment Modified capitalism (Score 4, Interesting) 196

Consistently amazed that Capitalism(TM) only has good characteristics and apparently no bad.

The only other thing that seems to come close is religon.

The big critique about capitalism is wealth inequality - it invariably leads to some people getting most of the money, and everyone else getting very little money.

The problem with that critique is that wealth inequality is mathematically more fundamental than any economic system. In other words, any time there is trade in value, you will get wealth inequality regardless of the system.

You can see this in numerous simulations online, such as this one.

Wealth inequality follows a Boltzman distribution or a Pareto distribution, depending on the type of investments allowed, and this can be proven mathematically.

About 2.5 million books are published in the US each year, about the square root of that number (1500) break even in sales, and about the square root of *that* number (35) are best sellers. Lebron James scores 43,000 points in his career, Kobe Bryant scores 34,000 points, and there are a zillion players that score lesser values.

Wealth inequality happens any time you have trade in value, this can be proven mathematically, and it applies to any value in any system.

And as a side note, once you realize wealth inequality is inevitable, the main selling point of Communism disappears. Wealth inequality happens under Communism as well, and we have numerous examples of this in recent history.

To be fair, this wasn't known when Marx was writing his thesis. At that time (1850's), economics hadn't progressed as far as it has today. Marx himself had a degree in law and philosophy, and not economics or psychology.

Capitalism has a bunch of bad characteristics, but we try to modify it to reduce the damage. For example, you can't sell patent medicines any more, you can't sell fake stock shares, and so on.

We use a modified version of capitalism that tries to avoid the bad characteristics.

Comment We're moving carefully (Score 5, Informative) 106

I don't want to sound alarmist and I am obviously not an expert but... we know what happens when you remove a species from the food chain.

The Culex quinquefasciatus (from Google's EPA request) is not native to N. America, it likely originated in Africa and came across due to human activity.

There are over 200 species of mosquito in N. America (worldwide about 3500). Taking one out will have negligible effect on the food chain.

Bats, specifically, will eat mosquitos but prefer larger insects. Mosquitos are small relative to the effort the bat takes to catch therm.

The specific mosquito mentioned is available in lots of places around the world (not native - see first point above), so we could repopulate if we notice a problem.

Google is breeding these mosquitos, so we have breeding populations and we could repopulate if needed.

It's the primary vector for West Nile virus, St. Louis encephalitis virus, Avian malaria, and Wuchereria bancrofti (a parasitic worm).

I've been following the progress of these sorts of activities for many years. With proper care and monitoring, it's possible we could fix a lot of invasive species problem such as Cane Toads in Australia, Mongooses (mongeese?) in Hawaii, and Aedes aegypti. A. aegypti strongly prefers to bite humans and is carrier to disease, and is also not native to N. America.

The US used to have screw worms. The screw worm would lay eggs in an open wound on mammals (usually domestic animals such as livestock, but sometimes humans) and the larvae would develop under the skin by eating healthy tissue.

The US government began a program of releasing irradiated screw worm males, which are sterile, into the environment to compete with healthy males. This reduced the population, eventually down to zero, and now the US is largely screw worm free. This only took about 10 years.

Good riddance.

Now do ticks.

The full explanation is Sterile Insect Technique.

Comment Statistical cherry picking (Score 2) 48

"This year, U.S. employment fell nearly 20% from 2024."
Were that true, we would be living through the worst of the Great Depression era. I asked perplexity ai for comparable statistics, and it claims that it took three years of the Great Depression for US employment to contact 20%.

That was the rebound year from Covid. It's a statistical anomaly, and chosen by a lot of news reports to highlight the severity of whatever point they're making.

Comparing today's employment against, for example, 2019 is also difficult due to the estimated 10 million illegal immigrants that entered under the Biden administration. For example, today there is about 4.3% unemployment, the average is 5.7%, so we're doing pretty good on that front.

Statistics can lie. Our 4.3% represents 7.4 million unemployed workers, while the 2019 3.5% rate represents 5.8 million unemployed. When you bring in 10 million undocumented people, it's easy to see how 5.8 million unemployed can swell to 7.4 million.

Statistics lie by comparing our employment to a year that had record values because of an anomaly, or compare the number of unemployed by number to a year before we closed the Southern border.

Comment Health isn't the primary goal (Score 1) 197

I don't think a healthy life, in and of itself, is all that laudable a goal. I'm reminded of The Witches of Eastwick... "When I die, I want to be sick. Not healthy." The question is, who benefits from the extended lifespan? Because it came at a cost. Opportunity cost... but a cost nonetheless.

You're assuming that having a healthy life is the primary goal, but it's not. It's secondary.

A healthy life is one of several secondary goals that you have in order to achieve your primary goals, whatever they may be.

For example, having a family/children is the goal of many people. Do you want to see your grandkids grow up? Have a healthy life.

Having enough money for retirement so you can travel (or just have fun) is another goal many people have. Want to enjoy your retirement? Have a healthy life.

Goals go hand-in-hand with motivations, and one way to increase your motivation for doing something is to identify how it contributes to one of your life goals.

So for example, that college course you're taking to get your MBA - are you doing that just for something to do, or does it contribute to where you want to be in 10 years?

It turns out that doing something "just for money" is not, by itself, a motivational goal. Doing something "for the money" that you will need to eventually start your own business, though... that's a motivational goal.

So no, living a healthy miserable life doesn't make much sense if being healthy is the goal.

Living a healthy miserable life *does* make sense if it lets you see your grandkids grow up.

Comment National, too (Score 5, Interesting) 54

With any international intellectual property case, the real issue is getting quick enough action from foreign providers as the article quite astutely points out:

This ruling is from the NY district court, which in theory only has authority over its district, and then only over the plaintiffs.

That last point is contested.

Several district courts have made nationwide injunctions against the current administration. For example, a federal court stopped Trump's 2017 travel ban from nations that didn't have good controls against terrorists. (Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Yemen).

In a 2025 ruling the Supreme Court decided that federal courts do not have the power for nationwide injunctions. The courts *do* have power over the federal government, that's not thought to be beyond the court's jurisdiction, so a court can rule against a federal statute or executive order.

Suppose there's an issue (immigration is an example), and California sues New York in court to force some action and wins. The NY court can issue a nationwide injunction, but then Texas (also interested in immigration issues) can say that they have a strong interest in the outcome and were not party to the litigation.

The supreme court decided (outside of issues with the US government) that Federal courts should focus their remedies on the plaintiffs, and not the entire country.

So not only do countries outside of the US not have to worry about this, US districts that are not the Southern District of New York don't have to worry about it.

Comment Never isn't the right word (Score 1) 133

As anyone who's bought an early Tesla Model 3 with "Full Self Driving" knows, it's that Elon isn't afraid of making big promises and never making good on them.

From the Yahoo article:

May 2022: In a pitch deck for Twitter investors, Musk claims the company will bring in $15 million in revenue from a payments business in 2023.

        October 2023: In a call with workers, Musk says he expects X to launch a payments feature by the end of 2024.

        January 2025: An X post from then X CEO Laura Yaccarino says the product will debut in 2025.

        February 2026: In an xAI all-hands meeting, Musk says a limited version is in beta testing. He also publicly extends an invitation to actor William Shatner, who later posts screenshots from his X Money account.

        March 2026: Musk says in an X post that "early public access" will launch in April.

...and of course it's in beta to a limited number of users right now.

Comment AI generator actors (Score 1) 90

Trying to think of a single movie or tv show which I love so much I would be happy if they did this to make more... Nope. Can't think of any.

One thing for sure: this will result in a lot more incredibly lame plotlines like "somehow, Palpatine returned".
Sigh. Well, at least I'll save a lot of time and money not going to see movies.

Someone did an AI live action recreation of Johnny Quest, and it looks totally cool.

That's sorta' the reverse of the current article - instead of taking a no longer available actor and recreating him, they're making an actor (who never existed) from scratch to play the part of a cartoon character.

Comment Hard pass (Score 1) 90

Just saw the trailer and...

I have no idea what the movie is about, whether it looks good, or whether I want to see it.

It reads "some stories were too hidden to be found" (and wtf does that mean? And the story was too hidden to be found but you're making a movie of it?), and it's based on a real story.

And a bunch of seemingly disconnected action shots.

Hard pass. I'll stream it if the reviews are any good.

Comment Liability laws (Score 1) 47

Now lets bring these requirements into law, permanently, across all industrial and consumer devices.

Any obstacle to repair and maintenance other than the inherent difficulty of the operation is anticonsumerist and in the long run, economically damaging (and many of the inherent difficulties are as well, but we gotta start somewhere).

If we change the "right to repair" laws, we should also change the liability laws. If a home-repaired unit becomes unsafe and injures people, who is responsible?

In the case of farming equipment, suppose a farmer makes a repair to a piece of equipment and then his son is injured or killed by said equipment. Who is liable?

The company would say that the farmer took full responsibility once he modified the equipment, while the farmer could say that his modifications did not affect the safety of the device.

It's also not at all clear whether a physical repair done by the farmer could have contributed to an accident made by software. Lots of things can affect software, such as the alignment of the two welded pieces. The software makes a performance analysis of stopping distance based on information it has, but the repair might have changed those parameters.

People who like to race want to download new parameters into the ECU of their car, but that's illegal. It actually is: the parameters are set to maximize efficiency, and while you can get better performance with different numbers, it would promote climate change, so it was made illegal.

Being able to repair things is good, and it's very clear that open source has driven the software industry forward, but we need to be careful about liability as well. Jailbreaking your phone is one thing, but jailbreaking your EV might have catastriphic consequences. I'm not a fan of ID-tagging headlights (BMW, Mazda), but if an accident occurs because of reduced visibility the company could be held liable.

I'm completely in favor of being able to repair things, and John Deere is the worst sort of predatory behaviour, but just wanted to point out that there's another side to the story and we should be careful.

Comment Fluid versus crystallized (Score 2) 137

I think what is really going on is that is not 'fluid IQ', but regular, normal "IQ".

"Fluid" intelligence is the ability to think, reason, solve problems, and learn things. "Crystallized" intelligence is your amassed knowledge.

These are technical terms used in the literature.

Intelligence is nature's guess as to how complex your environment will be... but there's an out. People with low fluid intelligence have to work harder to understand things, but if they put in the work they can amass a body of knowledge that rivals that of people with high fluid intelligence.

And of course, lots of people with high intelligence stop learning in their mid twenties. At that point they've conquered their environment and are living successful lives (good job, married, kids &c) so there's no real reason to push themselves. Lots and lots of people, even smart people, haven't read a single book in the last year - and this observation was true in the 1970's before the internet.

(And nowadays this is probably more accurate due to the appalling quality of information found on the internet.)

That is, stupid people either do not realize the AI is wrong, or more likely, they are so used to being corrected by more intelligent people that they just assume the AI must be smarter than they are and do not challenge it.

It's a question of training. We're evolved to believe what people say, it's a way of reducing the cognitive load of learning things (by believing what someone else has already figured out). We're not used to questioning the logic of someone else's beliefs.

As an example of this, note that Warren Buffet has built a career on identifying fallacies in business, google "Warren Buffet fallacies" for a list.

None of these fallacies is taught in school, everyone has to find them and figure them out on their own. And then you have to use them in your daily lives.

Almost no one is used to doing that, which leads to the current problems with AI.

Comment Further comment (Score 4, Insightful) 110

To add to the parent post, the paper appears to be the first step in the scientific method: "Notice a trend".

The next steps will be "form a hypothesis", "construct a test to confirm or deny the hypothesis", "perform the test"... and so on.

In this specific case, "perform the test" might be impossible to do for ethical reasons - you can't take people at random and sit them down in front of a LLM and test their level of psychosis before and after, because of that pesky "do no harm" rule.

But we might be able to find people who have had their psychosis levels measured before LLMs became available, and whose LLM accounts will accurately show how much LLM usage they have, and we can then remeasure their levels of psychosis and see if this correlates with LLM account usage.

Or some other test like that.

The paper appears to be an attempt to raise the issue and start a conversation. From the abstract:

[...] but there is a growing concern that these agents could reinforce epistemic instability and blur reality boundaries. In this Personal View, we outline the emerging risks, possible mechanisms of delusion co-creation, and safeguarding strategies for agential AI for people with psychotic disorders. We propose a framework of AI-informed care, involving personalised instruction protocols, reflective check-ins, digital advance statements, and escalation safeguards to support epistemic security in vulnerable users.

From the parent post:

One thing I can tell you, my mother was heavily affected by television.

I'm also heavily influenced by TV, and have spent a lot of time trying to sort out beliefs that come from TV from beliefs that come from experience or research.

I'm constantly presented with a situation or belief and have to pause to reflect and say "I believe that because it was on TV, it's probably not real". Many of my opinions on the police, government agencies, other countries, world events, and social constructs come not from experience, but on how they were portrayed on TV.

We're hard-wired to believe what people tell us, it's a cognitive shortcut in an environment where you can't know anything, but lots and lots of what we think today are only dramatic choices intended to provoke emotional response. (Compare with news reporting today. On both sides.)

For example, I've met people who won't go hiking because of all the bugs, skunks, poison ivy, and bears.

Assuming that LLMs are content neutral, I think in 10 years or so we're going to find people whose worldview is a greatly amplified version of random events that were highlighted when they were kids.

Comment OpenAI needs a new hail mary (Score 4, Interesting) 93

What about Altman making "Open" AI closed-source and for-profit years ago didn't tell you he was a dirty, money-grubbing cunt ?

Bring on the bankruptcy !

LLAMA was [illegally] released into the public three years ago (to the day - March 3, 2023), and it's estimated that ten years of AI improvements happened in the subsequent 6 months. People were doing all sorts of things with LLMs that meta hadn't thought of, or didn't have time to develop. Such as text-to-audio, local LLM use, and automated manuscript generation.

All these attempts at monetizing the LLMs are, at the same time, holding back the progress of AI development. If OpenAI wants to leap ahead of the competition, they should put their language model online and see what the community comes up with.

I get it - training a LLM takes roughly $100 million for the initial dataset, and companies need to recoup this expense.

Still, I'm saddened that I can only use the system for purposes that the company approves of, and in ways that they have already thought of.

There's a lot of potential there, and we're not making good use of that.

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