And I'll even help!

Please, sift through your massive documents yourself to cite a couple of "precise, non-trivial and impactful" predictions. I assume, you've read the documents you're offering as evidence yourself, so it wouldn't be much of a burden for you. Thank you!

They not only improved the model's forecasts; they also discovered why some of the model's predictions had been off

Wow, some had been off? Ok, nice to see an acknowledgement of that.

Now, how about a successful prediction? Something reasonably precise, non-trivial and impactful, please — falsifiable, yet not falsified in due time...

If you choose to play, be sure, each citation includes two links: one to the prediction being made, and another — to it coming true within at least 20% of the predicted value (for the quantifiable ones). Crucially, the two links must be at least 5 years apart...

Have you ever been a hiring official for any medium- or large- organization?

Yes I have.....and for entry jobs....GPA has been a consideration where there is no experience.

Is it the only consideration? No....but when you don't have experience it is one component to weed applicants down.

You can get this kind of basic image recognition on $20 ARM boards from China. I've got a rock3a (older, barely capable compared to whats available now) board cluster that does this kind of image recognition for my cameras. rpi3 level stuff. That it was nvidia just speaks to what is available.

Sure, let's discuss that. You've got a handful of methods historically:

- GPS/GLONASS/Starlink - can be jammed.
- Wire - inaccurate, not suitable for OTH guided missiles
- Pigeon - inaccurate and expensive
- Radar - can be jammed
- IR/laser - line of sight/requires IR signatures
- inertia - inaccurate, expensive.

There's nothing which really compares to "AI" in capability or accuracy. It's the only option which can't be jammed directly short of active EMP and provides the required/desired accuracy.

That's kind of been the bread and butter for cloud providers - "data velocity". They say: keep all your stuff on our cloud, it'll be safe forever, you don't need to worry about it.

A single copy is zero copies and 2 is 1. This is overlooked on all clouds, on the basis that 3 copies on a cloud provider is still 1 copy.

This kind of oversight failure has ended many companies when they've had DR scenarios. I know of 2 that had to close shop because the egress cost of all their data from AWS was larger than insurance would pay out, and the cash difference was significant.

In most cases, it makes more sense to keep 2 local copies (different storage) than 2 cloud copies, for this reason alone.

Even if frontier models only continue to get 'marginally better' in terms of evaluations, as they have been for the past year, it's quite apparent that the newer models tend to be significantly better in aggregate and practice.

We're also starting to see a stratification across frontier models:

- Anthropic seems focused on "one shot" capabilities (latest generations have suffered significantly in other departments)
- GLM seems to be increasing their focus on security and coding robustness
- Google seems to be leaning in on 'fast and cheap' and 'good enough'
- Agnes (while not quite frontier) seems to be going for "broad scope of capabilities"
- LiquidAI is focusing on specialized, small local models for agentic pipeline work
- OpenAI seems stratified on do-everything frontier models with functional stratification based on task complexity
- Qwen - local capability focus.
- Grok - code centric + fast.
- Deepseek - also local-capability focus while trying to optimize the full stack

Then you've got the mess of models like Laguna (last generation capabilities but local-focus) and Agnes (more like google's approach, with a wide and cheap portfolio).

As for Anthropic (and , it is quite apparent that they're architecturally behind in many ways to other models. The release of dflash papers and the subsequent speed increase on the competitor models made that plainly obvious.

College GPAs are just meaningless and it's time we just forget about them.

That GPA is what gets you in the door, over other applicants on those first jobs...

Hell, when I think about it....if "I" were a child today, and my parents raised me like they did back in the day....they'd be under the jail, with child protective services taking me away LONG ago....

No cell phones...and during the summers starting when I was a teenager....my mom started work again....so I'd be home alone all day, running around the neighborhood with my friends, playing all day.

We rode bikes and skateboards miles....played in the woods near our subdivision that hadnt' been developed yet....built forts, built skateboard ramps (the local house constructions "donated materials").....neighborhood pool, etc.

When I was very young, I had to call home about every 2 hours from a friends house....but other than that, I'd leave at sunrise and my folks generally didn't see me again till dusk and dinner, where we all ate together.

I got a job at 16yrs....I've been working ever since. With a little help, early graduation, I bought my own car my senior year in high school....a '78 280Z....fun!!

But yeah, no supervision was how we grew up, my friends and I are all older adults now, many with kids....we got into trouble and mischief, sure, but nothing that stopped the world and we learned how to deal with people and the world.

I can't remember the last time I witnessed a hospital demonstrating general competence

Where do you live where it is so bad there?

Unfortunately in the past 2 years...ive had to make a number of visits to the ER and one major surgrery....and I could NOT be happier with the doctors, nurses and general staff of the hospitals I've been too....

And my insurance covered most of all of it...didn't put me in the poor house like so many seem to claim will happen in the US if you get some much as a hang nail....this is private medicine I'm talking about with me, not VA.

My 16 year old daughter just got advice from her Pediatrician on how to get into Medical School - go to a small college where the Profs know you and you can convince them to inflate your grades, there is too much competition in big schools and no room to influence your grades outside your work So basically, try to cheat a little. Thanks Doc.

Well, being female, gives her an advantage for Med School....AND if she's a minority female, that really helps mover her closer to the top of the list....

It's only one semester, and a semester of the least important material of their university time.

Err...where did you go to school where 1st semester/year wasn't important stuff?

I was in all the weed out classes....chemistry, calculus 1...etc....

Hell I didn't get any "easy" classes like sociology or one English reading classes (sci fi books) till like I was a Junior or maybe senior.....

"In order to salve the mental health of freshman student..."

JFC...are you fscking KIDDING ME?

Is this just the next natural progression from everyone getting a participationi trophy in grade schools?

Why is it today's kids are so mentally deficient in ways that all other generations till the past decade haven't been troubled with??

Look, not everyone is cut out for college ....and those early classes, are weed out classes like others have said...at least they used to be.

Stress is a real part of REAL LIFE and this is a good time to learn these lessons.

Learn them early if they aren't college material....and let them get out before racking up massive debt in a degree that won't pay shit in the end.

I read the other day where incoming freshman these days, I think in the 5%-8% range had to take remedial math?!?! Our 1-12 schools aren't preparing them.....

If we keep lowering the standards....we're not helping anyone, we're hurting all them in the long run.

Let's re-think educations....some kids SHOULD be left behind for higher education, but that doesnt' mean we don't teach them some real skills where they can earn a living and contribute to society.

But for God's sake, let's quit coddling these little fuckers...they're going soft in ways that never even occurred to previous generations....

One of the requirements to become a US Citizen is you have to show some proficiency in American English.

Other countries have an official language, we need to make it official here.

We want people coming into the US to assimilate and the greatest tools for that is common language.

You rarely go to other countries and hear commercials in different languages ......certainly the signage for streets, etc is not in multiple languages...etc.

There is nothing bigoted about expecting someone trying to live in your country to speak the common language ....

The USA doesn't have an official language.

We need to fix that...other countries have official languages.....why not us?