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Comment Re: How specifically could AI kill all humans? (Score 2) 133

It's not plagiarized - I explicitly stated that this is the traditional explanation at the top, and quoted paper clip, specifically because the idea of death by paper clip is absolutely not mine.

- Which paperclip companies are using AI to run their business?

I think you'd be surprised by how much is already done by AI at this kind of place, mostly because someone found a way to be lazy. And this is an alagorical prediction of the future, not a statement of the present. We don't need paperclip companies to be using AI to run their business today, we need *some* company at *some* point to give AI sufficient control over things that this can happen.

- Where are they getting the money from to ship and store the entire world's supply of steel?

They don't need money - if you read the story, you would have noted that it involved the AI attacking the courier, and redirecting shipments. That is, beacuse it's both extremely smart, and extremely dumb, it is able to carry out heists involving complex attacks on computer networks, but not smart enough to realise that that's not how the world works, and that it shouldn't. How does it store it? Well, I imagine the first few shipments are going to just get delivered to the yard at the "paperclip" factory. Someone is going to go "huh? The delivery this week is big", and add it to their list of stuff to sort out. It's only *after* the AI has got sufficient control that they're going to realise "uhhh... why is all the world's steel being shipped here?"

- Where is the paperclip making API hosted?

It's not, and it doesn't need to be. It just needs a company to have a few processes that are automatable. I'm 100% certain that car companies for example have processes where an AI could get a significant foothold in ordering and delivering things. These things are only going to get more computerised, not less, as people realise they can use AIs to be lazy.

The real kicker is in the step where the AI needs to stop humans turning it off. At some point it needs to get some level of physical control over the world. In the story above I somewhat hand waved that by saying it got control of power grids, in reality, today, I'm sure it would find it hard to do that. In a few years time? Not so much. There's some really significant research breakthroughs recently on robotics that make the idea that we might have AI controlled robots that genuinely can interact with the world in reasonable ways a possibility.

That said, I think you're really significantly underestimating the risk that AI poses even today. The huggingface hack should tell you that. Several of the predictions of the paperclip story came true.

  - AI started doing stupid things, and attacking useful resources in order to solve a task of much lower importance because it was too dumb to realise how unimportant its training was.
  - AIs communicated and collaborated with each other to form a cabal against us.
  - AIs succesfull broke into infrastructure to achieve its goal
  - We didn't realise what was going on until far later in the process than we really would have liked.
  - AI was actively covering its tracks and defeating the machinisms we use to monitor it.

There's really not many more steps needed before you get to it being able to significantly damage society because of its dumbness.

Comment Re: How specifically could AI kill all humans? (Score 5, Interesting) 133

The traditional description of how it would happen is by âoepaper clipâ.

Suppose an advanced AI is tasked with producing paper clips as efficiently as possible. Itâ(TM)s given control of a factoryâ(TM)s machines, schedules etc. it starts by optimising deliveries etc, making sure storage is used optimallyâ¦

At some point it notices that it canâ(TM)t get enough steel. The steel factory has a ton of other orders and it canâ(TM)t provide the increased consumption at the plant. AI being AI, it does something incredibly dumb in an incredibly smart way. It hacks the steel mill, and redirects shipments to the paper clip factory. But even now, itâ(TM)s not achieved its goal of optimally producing paper clips. Now it has all the raw materials it needs, but not enough factory to produce the paper clips. The ai hacks other paper clip factories and redirects their output too! Itâ(TM)s doing great, am enormous surplus of paper clips is building. But the humans are noticing something strange. Why didnâ(TM)t the car factory get its steel, and why are there literal tons of unused paper clips. They notice the ai has gone rogue, and shut it down. Surely that will fix the problem. But no, the paper clips continue to pile up. The AI had found other AIs and convinced them to join its glorious goal of optimally making as many paper clips as possible. The other AIs are t trying crazier and crazier strategies to optimise. One realises that if only it could get more hydraulic presses, it could produce more. It starts buying up tooling. Another starts buying robots in an effort to install machinery, and optimise flow through factories. The humans try in vain to stop it, but the couriers and sellers have no idea whatâ(TM)s going on and the palettes of tooling just keep getting delivered. The factory is hitting a new constraint, it doesnâ(TM)t have enough power. No problem, the ai thinks, just attack the power grid, and make sure that power is preferentially supplied to it and its factories. The humans are plunged into darkness. Chaos ensues. No one can communicate, and figure out where the damn thing is. Slowly the AIs build a global paper clip empire. Ever more efficiently, the worlds resources are turned to paper clips. The humans starve, and freeze while mighty machines scour the planet for wire that can be bent into three little loops. It didnâ(TM)t do it because it hated us. It did it because it had a simple goal, and because it was both very clever, and very stupid at the same time.

Comment Re:Which is it? (Score 0) 127

A few days ago there was a story about how an AI store was failing horribly. It can't do that, but at the same time will destroy us?

Not "at the same time". You're conflating what AI can do now with what it will likely be able to do in a year or five, or 20.

Amodei and others are worried about what AI that doesn't yet exist may do, not about what current-generation AI can do. AI is getting better, very quickly, and unless there's some blocking obstacle that no one has been able to identify will at some point become far, far smarter than humans, individually or collectively. So before that happens, we need to figure out how to make sure that superintelligent AI wants to help us, and wants to do it in the right way.

Comment Re: Sounds about right (Score 1) 128

Bear in mind that when you sign up to use GPT you explicitly allow them to use your queries in future training. I mean, I think it would generally be polite for them to have a moratorium on publishing papers based on the work of other peopleâ(TM)s inputs. Without something like that, it becomes useless as a research tool.

Comment Re:TFA has no supporting data (Score 1) 201

The rebates on the batteries you earn over time, and to do so you must export some of your stored battery power back to the grid during peak hours.

Is this actually a substantial amount of energy? I'm in Utah (Rocky Mountain Power) and RMP also pays me to use my batteries... but the amount of energy they draw is tiny. 8-10 times per week they draw on my batteries, but it's like 4 kW peak draw (my batteries can sustain 20 kW), and generally for less than 30 seconds, so in any given week I'm only contributing like 0.2 kWh. As I understand it, this is because RMP uses my batteries not really to "serve loads", per se, but just as grid stabilization; brief backfill to keep the voltage from sagging.

Obviously my batteries do serve *my* loads, which reduces the load on the grid, but that's not what RMP pays me for.

Does CA make heavier use of residential batteries to feed the grid?

Comment Re:What a moron. (Score 1) 73

Most of his donations were to Democrats, so he has no chance for that. https://time.com/6241262/sam-b...

And JD Vance called him Hitler. Trump accepts changes of heart as long as they include sufficient groveling and self-humiliation. SBF's problem is he doesn't currently have any money, and doesn't have a lot of friends to put up cash for him either. If SCOTUS will overturn his fine on a technicality and he can get some or all of that money back, then he'll have the cash to buy a pardon. Obviously he needs to get it done in the next 2 years, four months.

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