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Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

The reality is that if Russia launched nuclear missiles at the U.S., the U.S. would wipe them off the map.

What appear ignorant of is that during the cold war the US/NATO defense of Western Europe depended on immediately using nuclear weapons against a conventional invasion by the Warsaw Pact. Despite the fact that the Soviet Union could wipe the US off the map. That is why when Gorbachev and Reagan agreed that "a nuclear war cannot be won and much never be fought", they also acknowledged that a conventional war involving the Soviet Union and NATO was equally unacceptable. Reagan was not agreeing we wouldn't use nuclear weapons to defend Europe against a conventional attack.

Lets be clear, Russia using nuclear weapons in Europe is not "suicidal". As De Gaulle allegedly pointed out when the US complained about France developing their own nuclear capacity, "Are you going to sacrifice Washington to punish an attack on Paris? If De Gaulle was uncertain of the answer then, Russia is likely willing to take the risk that the answer is "No" if the stakes are high enough. But if US unsuccessfully responded by attempting to "wipe Russia off the map" before it could launch its missiles, that would be all but suicidal.

I was explicitly talking about what would happen if Russia launched nuclear weapons specifically at the United States, not an arbitrary non-nuclear NATO country.

NATO would still be obligated to retaliate in an attack on other NATO countries, whether nuclear or otherwise, and Russia's military would still almost certainly lose very badly and very quickly, given their current levels of force depletion, but I do agree that it would probably not involve a nuclear response. It wouldn't need to.

Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

We don't even think about the possibility of that outcome, because we know that they know that nobody in Russia would survive if they tried.

Again, you are ignorant of the reality and there is no point in this discussion.

The reality is that if Russia launched nuclear missiles at the U.S., the U.S. would wipe them off the map. If you honestly think otherwise, I have a bridge to sell you. And if you're really that detached from reality, you're right. There's no point in this discussion.

Comment Yes and no? (Score 1) 27

On the one hand, the idea of an iPad with two large-ish screens sounds tempting. Lots of people I know use 12.9-inch iPad Pro displays for reading music, but it is challenging if you can only see one page at a time. It's a lot better if you can show two.

On the other hand, 18 inches arguably isn't *quite* big enough. Two iPad Pros would be a little over 20 inches, and those are really on the small side.

And knowing Apple, it would be a $3500 tablet. Meanwhile, I'm doing it with a 24-inch wall-mount Android tablet that cost me something like $450.

Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

Not even slightly. America has nuclear-capable cruise missiles with a range of up to 1550 miles. There is not a single target anywhere in Russia that could not be reached by those missiles when fired from out in the ocean.

On that note, lets end this conversation since you obviously don't know what you are talking about. Because while what you say is accurate, your conclusion contradicts every lesson of the cold war.

My conclusion that there's no reason NATO needs Ukraine is backed up by the fact that NATO hasn't let Ukraine in. If it were a meaningful strategic military advantage, it would have happened long ago. NATO doesn't want Russia to be its enemy, and is wary of taking on countries that are actively at war with Russia. Committing arms in a proxy war is one thing. Outwardly engaging Russia except in defense is quite another.

At the same time, a lot of countries near Russia often want to be in NATO because they regard Russia as their frenemy at best, and a loose cannon just waiting to go off in their direction, and being part of NATO strongly discourages Russia from doing so. Georgia, Ukraine, now Finland. It would not surprise me if Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan or Mongolia pushes in that direction within the next few years. All because they have seen what Russia has done and are afraid that they will be next.

The only way Ukraine would be a strategic advantage would be if it just happened to provide some path with low population where missiles could strike before anyone sees them. But either way, Russia has dead man's switches and stuff, so if the missile silos aren't 100% taken out before anybody notices, it's over. It's a suicide mission even without committing actual troops. NATO wouldn't be crazy enough to do that. And Russia fearing that sort of outcome is just plain bats**t crazy, because there's no rational reason for them to do so.

The U.S. hasn't cowered in fear of Russia nuking us since the Cuban Missile Crisis. We don't even think about the possibility of that outcome, because we know that they know that nobody in Russia would survive if they tried. Russia badly needs to reach the same level of trust. They may not agree with NATO or trust it, but they should at least be able to trust that NATO won't behave in an irrational, ridiculously self-destructive fashion. And if they can't get to that level of trust, the problem isn't NATO or the things that NATO does. The problem is that their government is paranoid delusional, and their people have been led to be similarly paranoid delusional through limited access to non-state-run media and widespread brainwashing by government propagandists. And the only way to fix that is by getting Russia to open back up.

Comment Re:Liquid Glass is Apple's Vista (Score 1) 25

It isn't just the transparent look that makes this Apple's Vista, but everything also loads noticeably slower.

And icons that aren't as recognizable, and black text on a dark grey background, where unless the brightness is all the way up, the average person can't read it, and...

The number of things Apple did wrong in this design is so staggering that nothing short of setting fire to it will fix the problem. Someone designed it to be pretty with apparently absolutely no thought given to making it actually be readable or usable.

If this were the first time Apple had done something like this, it would be bad, but Apple has done things like this previously on multiple occasions. It's time to bring back the human interface design experts that made their technology great prior to about 2003 and pay them to be the people who say "no" to all the graphics designers who think they know human interface design.

Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

The only definition of success that they probably can't achieve is taking out all of Russia's nuclear launch sites before they can launch.

Which is the only definition that matters isn't it?

Depends on whether you think they will launch them knowing that it means annihilation rather than mere regime change. It's a huge gamble.

And having missiles stationed in Ukraine along with air defense missiles would be one step toward overcoming that problem wouldn't it?

Not even slightly. America has nuclear-capable cruise missiles with a range of up to 1550 miles. There is not a single target anywhere in Russia that could not be reached by those missiles when fired from out in the ocean.

Either the cruise missiles are capable of evading Russia's air defense systems and taking out the silos or they aren't. If they are detected first (and realistically, they would be flying for probably multiple hours, so the odds of not being detected are rather poor), nothing else matters, because the nuclear missiles are either going to launch or they aren't. Flying for a hundred extra miles over a neighboring country on its way to such a target would neither make it easier for Russia to detect nor cost it a critical bit of extra range.

The way you take out the nuclear launch sites suddenly would likely involve sabotage from the inside and/or compromising computer systems, not missiles from a neighboring country.

you can bet the spooks at various three-letter agencies knew it many years earlier, if not decades.

No actually. During the cold war, the incompetent US intelligence agencies consistently over-estimated the Soviet Union's military strength along with its stability because that is what their bosses wanted to hear to justify defense spending.

That's a fair point.

Russia's military tech is decades behind at this point,

Which is a ridiculously ignorant claim as Russian arms sales, even to some NATO countries, demonstrate.

I mean, they're not useless to NATO. When you need more planes quickly and Russia is willing to sell them cheaply, it doesn't matter if they would be outclassed in a dogfight with an F-35, because you're not going to be fighting against those anyway.

They're still way, way behind.

Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

Clearly. If NATO wanted to attack Russia, they could have done it ten thousand times by now.

Not successfully.

Define successfully. A few hundred Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from subs off the coast, and the war with Ukraine would have been over years ago. Russia's military tech is decades behind at this point, and although they might get off a lucky shot or two, they are hopelessly outmatched by NATO.

Their war with Ukraine made this obvious to the general public, but you can bet the spooks at various three-letter agencies knew it many years earlier, if not decades.

The only real threat Russia poses comes from the possibility that they would decide to launch nuclear ICBMs to destroy the entire world as a final act of spite. Were it not for that, they would be a total paper tiger from a military perspective.

If your definition of "successful" is "regime change" or "destroyed all military targets", yeah, they could have successfully attacked Russia long ago. The only definition of success that they probably can't achieve is taking out all of Russia's nuclear launch sites before they can launch.

Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

A rational person would say that it has been in their interests for many years. Russia has continually attacked its neighbors on so many occasions that I've lost count. And Russia's tendency to buddy up with the most tyrannical world leaders and support them against international punishment for crimes against humanity has made the world a far worse place on an ongoing basis almost continuously since World War II. The world would almost certainly be better off if Russia's current leadership were buried under a ton of rocket rubble. Yet the U.S. has not attacked.

But Russia has nothing to worry about?

Clearly. If NATO wanted to attack Russia, they could have done it ten thousand times by now.

Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

Russia thinks NATO is attacking it.

To be clear, NATO likely *is* attacking Russia's *political power* because of the way Russia has repeatedly abused that power, but NATO is not attacking Russia's land, people, military, or buildings. And NATO would stop doing that if Russia would stop threatening its neighbors.

Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

was authorized by the U.N. Security Council

Russia voted to authorize it. Then the authorization was used to justify regime change. A process which has plunged Libya into a war zone for the last decade.

I'm not saying the military action was handled well, but the fact that even Russia, with its long history of defending dictators who mass murder civilians, said that Libya's government was doing something bad is quite telling. And there's still hope that Libya might end up with a stable, reasonable government at some point.

The thing is, you're going to have chaos almost any time a totalitarian regime falls. Gaddafi wasn't going to live forever, and it wouldn't matter if he died from natural causes or from Arab Spring. The power vacuum would still have probably been bad. Russia is going to see the same thing when Putin eventually dies.

Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

No. You aren't disputing that NATO attacked other sovereign countries. You are just accepting the propaganda claims for why it was justified. Calling the bombing of Libya "peace keeping" is like claiming Russia is "peace keeping" in Ukraine.

The United Nations overwhelmingly said it was justified, and more to the point, was authorized by the U.N. Security Council, and one of the two resolutions was unanimous; the other had 5 abstentions (the usual suspects). The United Nations overwhelmingly said Russia's invasion of Ukraine was unjustified. These are not the same.

Afghanistan never attacked the United States

Afghanistan provided material support to and knowingly harbored a terrorist organization that hijacked aircraft and flew them into the World Trade Center, killing thousands of Americans.

and the war went on for over 20 years after all the people who did were dead or captured. If you are Russia, I am not sure you would be reassured by those excuses. that NATO wouldn't find a reason to attack it if it decided it was in their interests.

A rational person would say that it has been in their interests for many years. Russia has continually attacked its neighbors on so many occasions that I've lost count. And Russia's tendency to buddy up with the most tyrannical world leaders and support them against international punishment for crimes against humanity has made the world a far worse place on an ongoing basis almost continuously since World War II.

The world would almost certainly be better off if Russia's current leadership were buried under a ton of rocket rubble. Yet the U.S. has not attacked. Do you honestly believe that it is because they haven't brought Ukraine into NATO, and because that extra 200 miles compared with Finland is an insurmountable distance? Do you honestly believe that if NATO decided to go to war with Russia, Finland wouldn't have helped even before they joined NATO? Or Türkiye, or Georgia, or Azerbaijan, or any of the other dozen countries bordering Russia that pretend to be friends with Russia out of fear, but actually hate Russia's government and would love to dance while watching it burn?

Tell me you're not serious. Russia isn't afraid of NATO attacking it. Russia just recognizes that every country that joins NATO is one more country that it can't bully into doing what it wants them to do. Russia recognizes that it won't be able to put puppet governments in NATO countries, because the elections will be monitored more closely. Russia recognizes that it won't have the level of regional power that it currently enjoys because of its aggressive, bullying, almost sociopathically militaristic behavior towards its neighbors.

Again, if Russia is doing nothing wrong, Russia has no reason to fear NATO. The problem is that Russia is pretty much always doing something wrong. And that's the real issue here. The last time the U.S. invaded one of its neighbors was 1846 to 1848. In that same time, Russia in one of its various incarnations has probably done so triple-digit times.

And to the extent that Russia does fear NATO because of a genuine belief that NATO is going to invade, that's just because its what they would do in their place. In other words, it's irrational, and represents Russia's gross failure to understand the rest of the world, coupled with a naïve belief that everyone else would act like them if they could.

Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

Let's see:

  • Serbia: Stopping mass genocide (on my list of reasons above).
  • Kosovo: Stopping mass genocide (on my list of reasons above).
  • Libya: Enforcing UN no-fly zone mandate (peacekeeping, on my list of reasons above).
  • Afghanistan: Defensive/retaliation for a direct attack on the United States (on my list of reasons above).
  • Iraq: Not a NATO mission. The only actual NATO-authorized action in Iraq was providing training for Iraq's security forces *after* the 2003 mission.

Care to try again?

Comment Re:Are the problems of mankind man-made? (Score 1) 161

Wow, Ukraine had a "tiny force"? It was the second-largest military in Europe (and much of the Russian military was stationed in the East building infrastructure).

In comparison with Russia, yes, it's tiny. Russia's military was somewhere around 3 million including reservists, versus 980k for Ukraine. And Russia has almost five times the population, which means almost five times as many people who could potentially be conscripted.

Russia never had more than 150,000 soldiers in the Donbass for the first full year of the conflict

The part you're conveniently omitting is that the number is that low only because so many of them died. Russia has *lost* over a million troops since the war began three years ago. The fact that only 150k were in the battlefield at any given time only makes that number more shocking, because it means they sent wave after wave of people to be slaughtered.

Put another way, Russia has already *lost* more troops than Ukraine ever had.

I maintain my original statement.

Comment Re:sure thing uberbah, everyone believes you. (Score 1) 161

All of which is flat out irrelevant if Russia considers NATO expansion into Ukraine a threat to its security.

Ah, but here's the thing. NATO is a defensive organization. In approximately every NATO military action, either the legitimate ousted leadership of a country asked for NATO's help, NATO was acting defensively, NATO was acting to stop mass genocide, or NATO was providing peacekeeping forces to stabilize a region. NATO is not a military force that goes out and attacks other countries unprovoked, and it never has been.

So the only reason Russia should consider NATO expansion to be a threat is if they intend to attack their neighbors and subjugate them.

So are you saying that Russia is dangerous to all the countries around it and can't be trusted to follow international law and stay the f**k out of neighboring countries' sovereign territory?

Comment Re:Are the problems of mankind man-made? (Score 2) 161

No, Ukraine invaded the independent states of Donetsk and Luhansk, which after eight years of fighting and over 14,000 dead civilians requested assistance from Moscow. If Kosovo can declare its independence and request aid from another country than so can Donetsk and Luhansk.

No, Russia funded paramilitary terror groups and had them take over Donetsk and Luhansk by force. And after eight years of fighting, Moscow invaded to make it easier to provide weapons for their proxy army.

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