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Comment Re:Vibe coded huh? (Score 1) 68

This proposal is a bit like the hypothetical "why didn't we use the space shuttle to rescue the Apollo 13 astronauts" question. Yeah, you just go ahead and do that then.

Well, dude did go ahead and do that. Whether it's a useful approach is certainly debatable, but since there's a working prototype, anyone can test it and find out.

Comment Re:It's complexity related (Score 1) 172

I do not recall the details! But I did watch as the damn AI did repeat wall clock and sample tests to see where the time was going and try 2-4 different approaches and clocked each one in detail. I felt embarrassed because I *could* do all that and certainly had done it in the past - but it would have taken me a *long* time to set up each tests and analyze the results and try over and over and track the results for each.
As you imply - none of this is particularly tricky - it's mostly just labor intensive and time consuming. And those are both things that AI has no trouble with.

Comment Re:Excellent news (Score 1) 89

AI to me is kind of like a self driving car... it would be one thing if the car actually drove itself and didn't require a licensed driver to sit behind the wheel and dedicate their full undivided attention to making sure the car doesn't do something stupid... yet no such thing at present exists.

You can take an Waymo in any of these cities:

  • Phoenix metro, Arizona
  • San Francisco Bay Area, California
  • Los Angeles, California
  • San Diego, California
  • Denver, Colorado
  • Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Dallas, Texas
  • Houston, Texas
  • San Antonio, Texas
  • Austin, Texas
  • Atlanta, Georgia
  • Miami, Florida
  • Orlando, Florida
  • Tampa, Florida
  • Nashville, Tennessee

Comment Re:Telling dogs from wolves (Score 1) 89

AI though, it really took a surprising and discontinuous leap in capability with Chat GPT 3, with application across soo many (most?) recognition and prediction tasks.

Including self-driving. What besides driving consumes so many hours and lives, and potentially remediable? I think it's probably the biggest AI application of the 21st century. Looking back the transition will seem faster.

Comment Re:It's complexity related (Score 1) 172

Related - when I tell an agent to optimize for performance - especially if the request is well targeted - it does an *amazing* job. Doing performance work is so well defined and described that it can follow the patterns and do all the checks and get it really right. To do a good job it's really repetitive and there are often a lot of angles to check and .. it just does it really well.

Comment Re:Finnish Wolves Finish Fled Villages (Score 1) 66

Can you point at the place where you believe it says they had a permit to clear the forest?

They halted work promptly when notified the government was taking exception.

Anyway the whole story is almost devoid of the concept of legality, for whatever reason. Certain people are just sure it shouldn't have been allowed and want to see USA Big Tech heads roll.

Comment "That's not intelligence!" (Score 5, Interesting) 150

"in a few years, there'll be nothing human mathematicians can do that AI can't do better," Borcherds said. " Oh, that's sad. If history serves as a guide, it means we'll have to re-define math as "not intellience (TM)" and rationalize that AI is just brute-forcing it since DNN's are incapable of making novel generalizations (even though they do exactly that, constantly).

Comment Re:Excellent news (Score 4, Interesting) 89

Yeah academic studies and surveys have a long and consistent record of failing to find any befit from IT in general:

- AI-generated answer (with direct quotes and cites)

1. Ng, Pan & Wilson (1998) Ã" Most businesses saw no revenue benefit ÃoeA majority (56%) indicated that their presence on the World Wide Web did not produce any noticeable change in their turnoverà The study also found that approximately 31% reported increased turnover, while 13% could not identify an effect. Citation: Ng, H.-I., Pan, Y. J., & Wilson, T. D. (1998). Business Use of the World Wide Web: A Report on Further Investigations. International Journal of Information Management, 18(5), 291Ã"314, p. 310. Information Research Full paper (PDF)

2. Hitt & Brynjolfsson (1996) Ã" IT investments did not necessarily increase profitability ÃoeHowever, we do not find evidence that these benefits have resulted in supranormal business profitability.Ã The researchers examined IT investments at 370 large firms. They found productivity gains and benefits to consumers, but no evidence of above-normal profits attributable to IT investments. Citation: Hitt, L. M., & Brynjolfsson, E. (1996). Productivity, Business Profitability, and Consumer Surplus: Three Different Measures of Information Technology Value. MIS Quarterly, 20(2), 121Ã"142. Iecon Paper and abstract

3. Subramani & Walden (2001) Ã" Internet initiatives increased stock market valuations ÃoeThe results suggest that e-commerce initiatives do indeed lead to significant positive CARs for firms' shareholders.Ã Studying 251 e-commerce announcements from late 1998, the researchers found positive abnormal stock returns ranging from 4.9% to 23.4% across different subsamples. However, these were stock market gains reflecting expectations of future profitability, not demonstrated increases in operating profits. Citation: Subramani, M., & Walden, E. (2001). The Impact of E-Commerce Announcements on the Market Value of Firms. Information Systems Research, 12(2), 135Ã"154. PubsOnLine Full paper (PDF)

Bottom line The findings illustrate three different aspects of the late-1990s Internet economy:

- 1996: IT investments improved productivity without demonstrably generating above-normal corporate profits.
- 1998: Most surveyed businesses reported no measurable increase in revenue from their websites.
  - 1998 data, published 2001: Investors nevertheless rewarded companies announcing Internet initiatives with substantial increases in stock market valuation.

The important limitation: None of these studies established whether the average company earned a positive or negative net return on adopting the Internet. The 1998 survey comes closest to measuring actual business results specifically attributable to Internet adoption.

- end of AI
Studies in the social sciences invariably prove what is popular. Watch, you'll see, and they consistently lean luddite. They resent new capabilities changing the world more than their 'insights' ever do. New capabilities are what change the world, but why should technologists have all the power to determine the future? (As if innovation, innovation, and history worked that way at all - particularly since inventors (individuals or nations) usually have a slim window of exclusivity.

Comment Re:Excellent news (Score 1, Redundant) 89

Yeah academic studies and surveys have a long and consistent record of failing to find any befit from IT in general: 1. Ng, Pan & Wilson (1998) â" Most businesses saw no revenue benefit âoeA majority (56%) indicated that their presence on the World Wide Web did not produce any noticeable change in their turnoverâ The study also found that approximately 31% reported increased turnover, while 13% could not identify an effect. Citation: Ng, H.-I., Pan, Y. J., & Wilson, T. D. (1998). Business Use of the World Wide Web: A Report on Further Investigations. International Journal of Information Management, 18(5), 291â"314, p. 310. Information Research Full paper (PDF) 2. Hitt & Brynjolfsson (1996) â" IT investments did not necessarily increase profitability âoeHowever, we do not find evidence that these benefits have resulted in supranormal business profitability.â The researchers examined IT investments at 370 large firms. They found productivity gains and benefits to consumers, but no evidence of above-normal profits attributable to IT investments. Citation: Hitt, L. M., & Brynjolfsson, E. (1996). Productivity, Business Profitability, and Consumer Surplus: Three Different Measures of Information Technology Value. MIS Quarterly, 20(2), 121â"142. Iecon Paper and abstract 3. Subramani & Walden (2001) â" Internet initiatives increased stock market valuations âoeThe results suggest that e-commerce initiatives do indeed lead to significant positive CARs for firms' shareholders.â Studying 251 e-commerce announcements from late 1998, the researchers found positive abnormal stock returns ranging from 4.9% to 23.4% across different subsamples. However, these were stock market gains reflecting expectations of future profitability, not demonstrated increases in operating profits. Citation: Subramani, M., & Walden, E. (2001). The Impact of E-Commerce Announcements on the Market Value of Firms. Information Systems Research, 12(2), 135â"154. PubsOnLine Full paper (PDF) Bottom line The findings illustrate three different aspects of the late-1990s Internet economy: - 1996: IT investments improved productivity without demonstrably generating above-normal corporate profits. - 1998: Most surveyed businesses reported no measurable increase in revenue from their websites. - 1998 data, published 2001: Investors nevertheless rewarded companies announcing Internet initiatives with substantial increases in stock market valuation. The important limitation: None of these studies established whether the average company earned a positive or negative net return on adopting the Internet. The 1998 survey comes closest to measuring actual business results specifically attributable to Internet adoption. Studies in the social sciences invariably prove what is popular. Watch, you'll see, and they consistently lean luddite. They resent new capabilities changing the world more than their 'insights' ever do. New capabilities are what change the world, but why should technologists have all the power to determine the future? (As if innovation, innovation, and history worked that way at all - particularly since inventors (individuals or nations) usually have a slim window of exclusivity.

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