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Comment Re:Known this for our Solar system since the 1980i (Score 1) 35

Actually, we're pretty sure it CAN happen by random chance. The argument is about how small that chance is...and what environmental conditions give the highest probability. And in what order things happened. (Currently I, not really knowledgeable in the field, think metabolism probably came before centralized information storage.)

Comment Re:That's the easy part (Score 1) 134

YES!!
And *part* of the reason it's tricky is that we've got no real idea of what current AIs are going to develop into. Projections are all over the map.

FWIW, I tend to consider the AI2027 projections as identifying the most probably sequence, but there are lots of others, and none of them have any chance of being more than approximately correct. (The AI2027 people say it isn't moving quite as fast as they projected, but when I compare what they said against the news I'm not sure I believe them.)

Comment Re:oh for fuck's sake. not this again. (Score 1) 240

Read the post above for an alternative explanation.
It begins:

There is no shortage of physicians. What happened during the pandemic was a lot of practices sold out to these massive holding corporations. Working as an independent or small company physician has been made almost impossible. You combine that with nonsense like the cabal of the American Board of Medical Specialties not even allowing practicing physicians to take the damned board exam (despite the fact that they're going to charge $3000 for it).

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