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Comment Re:We all know the real reason (Score 1) 118

The compute cost for DeepSeek V3 was $5.6M. Training costs for traditional US frontier labs model is about $70 to $200M+, with estimates of up to $1B+ to train the next generation models. It's expensive, but it's not even in the ballpark of "There is no viable economic model to do so." Google revenue in Q2 was $1.32 billion *per day*. $1B is trivially less than a day; $5.6M is just 6 minutes of revenue.

The cost problem is in the compute buildout and the subsidized compute to capture users.

> It remains to be seen if even using their models can be profitable,

I presume we can stipulate there exists some tasks that are cheaper to do using an LLM than doing it "by hand". As a such, using an LLM model can be profitable. To me, it is also obvious that the business of serving an LLM model can be profitable. There's large benefits to being able to get tokens quickly, and you can expect people to pay for that, even if we presume they could run the model locally with no maintenance overhead. There's even cases where using the cloud is cheaper than you can serve locally at all - I saw one guy that measured his added cost of electricity when his computer ran a specific LLM, and it was more expensive to run it locally than to buy tokens from the cheapest inference provider for the same model, presumably because they had better hardware and cheaper electricity.

Comment Your calculator is superintelligent (Score 3, Interesting) 165

I love a term a friend of mine used to use when talking about AI: "Narrowly superhuman" (before "superintelligence" got to be a thing).

AI is narrowly superhuman. It is able to do specific things that used to be defined as a "hallmark of intelligence" much better than a human. The easiest one? Summing numbers. It's both faster and more precise than a human.

AI gets more and more such areas it can do better than a human.

If we define "Superintelligent" to be "A computer system able to do absolutely everything we can somehow call intelligence better than any human", we will *never* have superintelligence. The things we define as intelligence will be in conflict; we'll land at the system being better at one at the cost of another.

I'm in favor with being careful about this development. But "prohibiting the development of superintelligence" isn't an option. It's already here.

Comment Re:No. (Score 1) 29

Dividing the yearly US spend on Internet advertising by the number of people in the US that has Internet access gives $900-$970 spend per person per year, or $75-$81 per month.

Please choose the option you want:

1. I want to pay about $75 per month per member in my family into the ad auctions to not see any ads. Ie, keep the infrastructure, but let you opt to pay your share through money rather than attention.
2. I want to prohibit ads, and accept that everybody will have to pay for the sites they want access to, that there will be much fewer services, that there will be much higher transaction costs, and that the poor will have much less ability to access services. (Microtransactions won't solve this, due to the need for trust evaluation of same.)
3. I want some combination of 1 and 2, where some sides of ads are prohibited so it is possible to buy my way out of them at a lower price,. I accept that this will result in the loss of some services and lower access to others for the poor.
4. I want legislation that makes Internet ad blockers work more consistently. I accept that this just shifts the attention cost to other people, and have me getting the benefit without paying the cost.
5. I want to remove Internet ads and subsidize the sites through taxes.
6. I want to increase the requirements of Trust and Safety checks and format restrictions for ads, potentially accepting higher overhead (in what goes to content vs infrastructure) for less annoying/bad ads. I accept that doing this creates significant advantages of scale for ad networks.
7. Other, please describe, including where costs gets shifted with your proposal.

The above are my best attempt at listing possible options and their correct caveats. In most situations, I find ads annoying (who doesn't). Unfortunately, they are the main money highway of Internet content.

DISCLOSURE: I used to work for Google, where I rang infrastructure for stopping bad ads/advertisers and for removing fake clicks. I've also been interested at the use of sub-cent microtransactions to pay for content since the 1990s, though I've become disillusioned as I've learned more about the attention economics involved. Approving individual microtransactions has a higher attention cost than dealing with the ads, and bulking them per-site (through micro-subscriptions) will limit the number of sites that can have content.

Comment Re:Good (Score 1) 109

OK, which particular aspect of the LLM learning do you think doesn't exist in the human brain? Backprop exists (and the other training methods the brain uses has similar effects), embeddings more or less exists and seems to be very similar to the LLM embeddings (shown by brain activation in various areas linearly matching with embeddings) - see e.g. High-level visual representations in the human brain are aligned with large language models (Adrien Doerig et al, 2025), and speech/text generation by humans has similar error patterns as for LLMs.

They obviously don't learn in the EXACT same way, but there's also clearly a lot of bits that are the same, and I'm fairly sure nobody knows how much is similar yet, particularly not weighted by importance.
 

Comment Re:I Love This For Them (Score 2) 199

To add to this: Norway has a lower population density than USA. So building charging stations should be doable with the amount of americans and land they have.

However.. I have to say that charger density is not equal between different parts of Norway. It _is_ mainly focused around the most populous areas.
Also, east to west is only 500km (~300 miles). But then again, I believe most americans rarely drive across states on their daily commute.

I have an EV with 280km (175 miles) range. About 2/3 of that in winter. It covers my daily driving, and with some planning 90% of my long distance driving. The one day/weekend I need to go much longer I can rent a fossil car.

Part of the success (that I see Tesla are doing in the US) is destination charging. Charging should be the new wifi to offer customers. All hotels and amusement-parks should provide EV chargers. Restaurants and shopping malls too. I charge when I can, not when I need to. One need to get out of the old mindset that you drive it to empty then refill/recharge. Now you charge when you can. And yes it takes longer than refuelling, but most of my charging is overnight or a 20 minute rapid charge.

Comment Re:Uh hmmm (Score 2) 20

It is a real problem.

At the moments it is more like a duopoly.
Expedia Group: Expedia, Hotels.com, Hotwire, Trivago, Orbitz, Venere
Booking Holdings: Booking.com, Kayak, Agoda, Rentalcars.com, Momondo

Those aren't even all their subsidiaries. They also run OEM search engines that various smaller companies use.

A friend ran an apartment hotel and he cursed them all to hell and back. The first time he told me about expedia fees it was in the order of 40%. I see a website now lists it as up to 25%, but I guess there might be some numbers that vary depending on sales tax (ie, the booking engine wants a commission of 25% on the total amount billed, including taxes, so what the hotel ends up might be 60% or less)

Next there were a lot of other conditions, as you could not list the hotel at a cheaper rate anywhere else. So you couldn't undercut the search engine.

Now, in a highly functioning free market, the commision from the hotel to the search engines should drop to very low percentages because competition, economy of scale etc. I mean, the system is developed. The owners do all the work of updating the listings etc. Instead they have remained high and I guess the Spanish government has now had enough of their pricing practices. Which I agree, it's about time.

While having almost all of the worlds hotels available through one site is a true benefit to me as a consumer, it doesn't feel quite right that they get to keep so much of the cost of a stay.

Okay great, they have their bonus/loyalty programs, and I see that they have to cover the cost of that, but I would rather they scrap that program and instead lowered their commission by 10%.

Comment Re:A legacy of violence (Score 1) 221

Another European here.

Neither Biden nor Hillary would be a better candidate than Trump. Now, if you had offered us Bernie Sanders.. then perhaps.

But in general I am curious as to why, in a nation of 300+ million, you managed to limit the choice to the current bunch of old men

US politics at the moment seem to be "it's more important that the other side lose, than who wins". It's amazing that you can be split into more or less two parties, and everything is about two issues: guns and abortions. With these two topics, I would expect there to be 4 parties (2 bits equals 4 possible values).

Comment Re:do not want (Score 2) 204

Because people are stupid and regularly vote against their own interests.

Would car manufacturers install seat belts if not forced to by legislation?

Would people ask to install (and pay for) seat belts if they had a choice?

I've had an EV for 3 years now. It's awesome. But it still has regular service, and let me tell you that those aren't cheap. Might be because of less competition. And people don't know what they actually do on a service checkup.

I saved $80 or so by changing the $10 air filter myself. But since the EV uses the brakes so seldom, I had to replace the brake discs as they were covered in rust. Now I know to force-brake more often.

Comment Re: Is it that time of the year again? (Score 1) 186

Some systems use offline timezone database to change to DST based on what date it is.

Linux has tzdata, Windows has something. If a system is EOL and there are no new packages and the repo is gone, some systems will use the old dates.

Not to mention systems that aren't beeing updated automatically.

I have some clocks that change based on date. No way to update them. Would have to adjust the clock 4 times per year to keep up with the old dst and new dst.

Sure, might not be THAT many, but there are some.

Comment What about an inner voice? (Score 1) 243

Can you have monologues/conversation with yourself inside your head?

Do you have to read out loud/move your lips while reading something?

I was surprised to learn that there are people out there that does not have an inner voice.

if you ever feel dumb, just know that when my friend was 14 she went to a psychiatrist bc she ”had a voice in her head". it was her brain. like literallyjust her thoughts. she thought that she was the only person who had the ability to think. for 14 years

Comment Could an airline develop their own plane? (Score 1) 49

This might sound insane, but how long of a stretch is it that an large airline could develop their own airplane?

Would United or American have enough money on the books to start a airplane manufacturer subsidiary? Imagine the savings..

Or what about Emirates? Why wouldn't an middle east state with a lot of oil money invest in a airplane manufacturer?

And yes, I understand that the barriers to entry is high, but with so much money on the line there must be someone willing to gamble.

Have you seen the new M320/777 from Musk Aerospace?

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