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Comment Real stuff behind the article (Score 1) 44

https://quantumzeitgeist.com/chinas-quantum-computer-breaks-speed-record-jiuzhang-3-solves-complex-problem-in-microseconds/ has comments from an expert

The actual paper is in Physical Review Letters, which is pretty high in ranking for journals, but I can't find the article online yet.

Comment Clearly a fraud (Score 3, Insightful) 28

"with a four-fab installation estimated to cost under $100 million" is clearly silly - a single EUV photolithography machine is $150 million (newer models are $250 million), and you need lots of plasma injection, washing, ... machine that cost millions each.

Even if they purposely mis-use the word "fab" to mean a single stage in the whole process, it still is silly. There is no way $100 million buys enough gear to do all the steps needed to make a chip - no matter how "mature" or old. By the time you buy A SINGLE piece of each machine needed, you are into billions. If you any decent capacity, many billions.

Hell, I will bet that $100 million won't even pay for the plumbing needed for the ultra-pure water, not to mention all the nasty chemicals needed in different stages. (Fabs are the single industry that uses the most different chemicals that are really nasty.)

Comment The paper is about AIÂ*helping* to solve prob (Score 4, Insightful) 157

The paper is long, but it is clear what the paper is about: using AI to *help* with solving a problem (P?=NP in this case). They are using AI like other people use simulation, or chip designers use floor planning tools. ChatGPT is really being used as an design aid to explore the design space. This is very different from ask it to come up with a proof either way.

Comment RTFP: size of (de)compressor are huge (Score 2) 57

Table 1 on Compression rates shows TWO different rates. Everyone is getting excited over "raw" compression rate that is pretty good; while ignoring the "adjusted" compression rate that is pretty bad.

The adjusted rate takes into account the size of the models and Chinchilla 70B goes from 8.3% "raw compress rate" to 14,008.3% "adjusted compression rate".

It's well known that "classical" compressors can be improved (by a lot) just by adding a pre-defined dictionary/model, but that would hugely bloat the programs so people don't. These LLM model do exactly that, so they are better. Nothing new.

Comment Re:Who could have forseen this... (Score 1) 18

All these supplies for semi fab stuff, they are a natural limited market monopoly - the market is (very) specialize as in only a few customers, so the first entrant has the "first mover advantage" big time. There is just no financial incentive for someone else to be third source (there is always a requirement for second source).

The upshot is that the monopoly is formed by market forces instead of technical hurdles - most of the supplies are just high purity chemicals, so many people in many countries can make this stuff. The hurdle is actually financial incentive - it just does not make sense to invest in the R&D and production line; so everyone buys from the first mover because it's cheaper.

As soon as the cheap option is foreclosed, for whatever reason, new entrants becomes financially attractive so new entrants flourish. Bottom line, artificial restriction just hurt the first movers. Oh wait, those are Japanese, so Americans don't care. (Yes, there are American one as well, but they get exemptions and are hurt much less).

Comment Re:Man up (Score 1) 120

That's a very Human-centric view. Sure, we could make ourselves better, but the probability is no higher than a random money improving it's tool using skill.

There are in fact very few parts of humanity that is good and worth keeping. Take the last half millennium of Western history - take away the wars (especially the religious wars - literal ones) war industry, slavery, exploitation, destroying the environment, ... and what do you have left? You might say how about technology, industrial revolution! Let me remind you why the Steam Engine was invented in England - they burned all the trees in the factories, then they turned to coal and burned all the easily accessible surface coal, so they went deeper and deeper. The deep coal mines are always flooded, so they had to invent the Steam Engine to pump the water out to get the coal to burn.

Arts! Music! Someone is sure to shout. Take a survey amongst the tigers (or any other species) and see what they think. Like I said, human-centric view.

Comment Always been done, this takes it to a new level (Score 2) 53

Things like this has always been done:

- Candidates give speech/promise tailored for the target audience. In the old days, audiences were separate, so no problems. At some time, reporters started to followed candidates around and could report on the differences, for awhile this would cause some problems for the Candidate, but it now seems to be just par for the course

- Micro-targeted Ads on social media are exactly this. Each ad is tailored for the recipient, see FB and Cambridge Analytica. This is particularly nasty since none of these ads will be seen by non-targeted (especially reporters) so these ads can go full nutty.

- The Rand thing is just a video version of the Micro-targeted Ad.

Comment Re:This should be interesting (Score 1) 19

US is paying/forcing all the companies to build fabs in the states. Europe is doing the same in Europe. China is on a tear doing the usual China scale - that is, planning to build (roughly) more than the rest of the world combined.

How much capacity will come online in a few year? Tell me who will buy all those chips.

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