Mostly agree.
I think if they'd been paying attention instead of dictating to themselves what consumers wanted in pursuit of that big return... they would have noticed that hero shooters were bleeding audience the whole time, and extraction shooters were largely populated by those who had decided that relentless PvP was the kind of gameplay they wanted... It's hard to say how much of the market that group is, but it's certainly an exclusionary subset.
All their market analysis seems to rely on really reductive assumptions about consumer choices and preferences... and there are some places that they basically can't follow to, essentially for business reasons. It's very hard for, for example, Sony to produce a quick turnaround, low budget friendslop game for a variety of reasons. Helldivers is the closest they've gotten. They're just not set up to be lean like a solo developer who is just playing around in unity or unreal in the hours they're not working a day job can be, and it's real hard for their devs to have the same emotional commitment to a project like that a solo dev who owns the whole thing can.