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Comment Nothing 'new' about hexagons (Score 1) 30

'Zip Codes' are not actually 'areas', they are basically a contrivance, a polygon that encloses a collection of 'Letter Carrier Routes' ( https://www.marketmaps.com/car... ). Those Routes are optimized for all the standard logistics concerns, volume, number of end points, street network access, etc. Individual buildings can and often do have their own ZIP codes, especially in areas with high-volume businesses or institutions. Any reference scheme based on equal sized polygons is a mismatch to the variability in feature density, so there is a type of fractal hexagon mapping, Discrete Global Grids which can basically address any resolution and density of data ( https://www.sciencedirect.com/... ).

Comment Re:I'm surprised (Score 1) 30

The Earth's direct gravitational effect isn't the only relativistic effect, the aspect that it is also rotating injects some interesting weirdness.

https://www.gpsworld.com/insid...

"There is more to relativity than the special theory and general theory. There is the Sagnac effect associated with our rotating reference frames attached to Earth, in which we’d like to determine a position. The principle of constancy of the speed of light cannot be applied in a rotating reference frame, where the paths of the radio rays are not straight lines, but spirals. (Receivers at rest on Earth are moving quite rapidly: 465 meters per second at the equator.) There is also the Shapiro delay associated with the slowing of electromagnetic waves as they near Earth, which amounts to a fraction of a nanosecond. "

Comment Since Evans & Sutherland (Score 1) 65

The vertical markets for AR/VR which actually have an ROI on the premium cost have been the same ones since the late 1960s ( first full motion simulators from Evans & Sutherland, for example ) with one exception in the consumer space, gaming. And they saturate fairly quickly, especially since the display devices are actually a small part of the investment required for an actually useful application in the real world. They never 'cross the Chasm' so to speak despite the hopes of hypsters. I've been doing 3D solid modeling and simulation since the 1980's in the manufacturing vertical and the current VR/AR hypists have no idea how difficult it is to produce and harmonize the assets within a fairly narrow boundary ( one could also probably ask a Hollywood movie production team or game developer business ). It is hard in manufacturing where everyone is trying like hell to cooperate, most likely impossible with competing players all pushing their own proprietary interests to create walled gardens ( one of the AR/VR headset vendors actually required on to have and use a FaceBook account ).

Comment Re:Natural Sources? (Score 1) 66

"Analysis of physicochemical processes in volcanic column showed the possibility of formation of the following types of black carbon particles: single highly dispersed particles or their small fractal aggregates, particles of fibrous or encapsulate types associated with pyroclasts, graphite-like pyrocarbon particles.Moreover, the formation of particles of the second and third types is energetically more accessible than that of the first type. Data on the detection of carbonceous particles in the stratosphere and volcanic ash confirm the possibility of formation of all types of predicted particles and their identity with particles produced by known technological processes and detected after powerful volcanic eruptions in Kamchatka (Russia). The main limiting factors determining both the possibility and the lower boundary of the conditions for the formation of particles of different types have been identified: temperature and concentration of carbon-bearing gases in the volcanic column."

Comment Natural Sources? (Score 1) 66

The authors ( actual only one was a geochemist ) diligently avoid any discussion of alternative sources of their indicators, or the simple fallacy that correlation doesn't mean causation. "During the peak climactic phase of the 2022 Hunga volcano eruption, the upper part of the plume reached 57 km3 injecting aerosols into the mesosphere. The impact of these aerosols and salts at such high atmospheric levels is not well known, but postulated effects include ozone destruction, radiative forcing and climate warming, variations in mesospheric clouds3, as well as impacts on regional and global climate" from "Atmosphere injection of sea salts during large explosive submarine volcanic eruptions" at https://www.nature.com/article...

Comment INRE: 'Rare' and 'average' (Score 1) 522

Driving behavior in the US has no meaningful 'typical' because of the huge variety of conditions across the country - so beware the 'Ecological Fallacy' ( https://www.servicescape.com/b... ) when you see it. However, one can get a pretty good idea of what the commuter trip effort is happening in a region just by looking at the boundaries of the US Census Metropolitan Statistical Areas ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... ) and the associated CSBAs, because the populations actual commuter and other trips are the core of the definition.

Comment Climate Theater Ext-Gen-Sto-Dis-Use (Score 1) 522

EV's are an ideological prop for climate theater, and literally putting the cart before the horse. From a systems engineering view, fossil fuels are not equivalent to electricity through the entire logistics train from extraction (a coal seam or windy ridge ), generation ( converting that source usable form of power ( electricity or gasoline ), storing that to level supply and demand cycles at al scales, distributing and dividing it to supply end points ( transmission lines, pipelines, etc. ), and only then the actual end use ( commuting by car, moving a load of cargo, etc. ). Every useable form of energy is actually performing all these functions in parallel along that chain, not just when it combusts or rotates at the point of use. Any improvements would need to be addressed at each link upstream, and some provide vastly more bang for the buck than others - but explaining complicated stuff to the public is complicated, but people think they understand what a car is, so distract attention from the stuff that really matters, that which requires math and hard decisions. But especially stupid is increasing a heavy, highly variable demand that can't be uniformly provisioned at the end of that function change - an analogy would be plugging every home appliance into one socket. The personal EV is just a single narrow use case geographically concentrated, and represented low-hanging fruit, and is at the edge of the Chasm Crossing. Check out how the electric school bus program is going. Spend some time on the NREL web site.

Comment "A Marxist Would Say" (Score 1) 150

The International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) is the direct descendant of the "International Workingmen's Association" ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... ), where it should be noted "Among the many European radicals were English Owenites, followers of Pierre-Joseph Proudhon and Louis Auguste Blanqui, Irish and Polish nationalists, Italian republicans and German socialists. Included among the last-mentioned of this eclectic band was a somewhat obscure 46-year-old émigré journalist Karl Marx, who would soon come to play a decisive role in the organization." Basically their agenda is propagating the benefits of authoritarian socialist regimes like the USSR, North Korea, and the PRC ... and the non-existent 'workers' rights under their lash.

Comment Re:Freight rail electrification (Score 1) 169

The US rail network is much different than Europe, and much of the world. Here it is primarily used for freight, and that means all the major track routes are height-sized for double stack containers, which prohibit overhead electric lines like Europe. The other, of course is to have a 'live rail' on the track itself, but obviously the right of way would need to be secured against people wandering about and getting electrocuted, not to mention on anything outside the core of an urban area, vulnerable to physical damage from downed trees, stuff like rocks falling of trains, and occasional flooding. On long stretches, there are limits to the amount of power that can be transmitted through the lines, if multiple locomotives are on the same stretch - not an issue for low mass passenger trains, but not a multi-mile long ore train crossing a mountain pass.

Comment The Holy Grail (Score 4, Interesting) 36

This idea re-surfaces every decade, it was literally the marketing claim of COBOL ( COmmon Business Oriented Language ). Along with all the graphic programming languages like Visual Basic. There is a basic fact of information system entropy that you can't get something complex from something 'simple'. It might get you 95% of the way their, but will never competently handle all the edge cases which are 95% of the effort. Also, topology ( interactions ) increases exponentially with complexity. Human's sensory and cognitive interface for software is pretty much one or two dimensional, current distributed federated systems are n-dimensional, we don't even have a very nuanced human spoken language or graphical visualization techniques for time - see ' Allen's interval algebra' https://ics.uci.edu/~alspaugh/... ( the closest we get is maybe orchestral scores and dance choreography ).

Comment Math Cognition (Score 1) 90

Been tutoring all age groups for a couple decades. First fail is, considering the huge variety of individuals, there is no monolithic curriculum, and as a student progresses, it also changes. Second, as humans walking around in the world, we already innately do all sort of very complex math without noticing, just nobody has every put a label on it for us. Third is discover the compelling application that can provide metaphors for the math involved, like cooking, athletics, music, whatever. Fourth is realizing there are immutable processes that just have to be memorized ( like multiplication tables ) - one can crutch around these by expending time and energy, but the crutches inhibit fluent learning of the next phase down the line ( Illustrative Math is basically almost all crutches ). Math isn't really a group activity, so teaching at a 'class' is fairly useless. My method is to look for the order of patterns, just like when putting a jigsaw puzzle, find the corners, find the sides, sort the colors by solid then portions, etc.

Along with literacy, and numeracy, there is 'graphicacy' - which is basically decoding and understanding pictorial information, and people suck at that worst of all unless they drew it themselves.

Comment Re:That number is going downand Big Brains (Score 1) 153

Here in the US we have the big brains at National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL https://www.nrel.gov/ ) People and policy makers put all the focus on the automotive electric vehicles, but the upstream infrastructure to support it is not even remotely capable, not will it be.

See "complex models forecasting future demand and supply" with a ' range of scenarios' at https://www.nrel.gov/transport... , TEMPO: Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options Model, - that policy is based on the NREL report, "Decarbonizing Medium- and Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis", where this statement is buried "We assume no cost associated with refueling ICE/HEV/FCEV (availability of refueling everywhere, long vehicle range, and refueling time comparable across technologies).".

WTF? The current administration basically ignored the other report "Highly Resolved Projections of Passenger Electric Vehicle Charging Loads for the Contiguous United States". Just the smallest use category, LD, "full electrification of the light-duty vehicle stock would account for 13%–29% of future aggregate U.S. load". ... "For example, the energy used by the same EV to drive a mile can change by up to 50% at temperature extrema (NREL 2016; Geotab 2020), heavily impacting vehicle range, charging needs and resulting loads, cost of driving, and consumer experience.". So that is 29% more generation just for the Light Duty classes, so triple that and add the Light-Medium (Class 3),Medium (Class 4–6), and Heavy (Class 7–8) vehicles. So approx 100% additional capacity just for "generation" for just for conversion to all EVs.

And it's not just generation - since the renewables and the vehicles themselves are subject to variability over daily, weekly, and seasonal cycles, corresponding energy storage is needed, and of course the transmission network from grid to street level will need four times the present capacity. Good luck with that.

Comment Generation - Storage - Tranmission - Use (Score 1) 179

INRE:'feasible'. No, it is not. Folks and policy makers put all the focus on the vehicle, but the upstream infrastructure to support it is not even remotely capable, not will it be. See https://www.nrel.gov/transport... , TEMPO: Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options Model, - that policy is based on the NREL report, "Decarbonizing Medium- and Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis", where this statement is buried "We assume no cost associated with refueling ICE/HEV/FCEV (availability of refueling everywhere, long vehicle range, and refueling time comparable across technologies).".

WTF? The grid is already teetering. The Biden administration basically ignored the other report "Highly Resolved Projections of Passenger Electric Vehicle Charging Loads for the Contiguous United States". Just the smallest use category, LD, "full electrification of the light-duty vehicle stock would account for 13%–29% of future aggregate U.S. load". ... "For example, the energy used by the same EV to drive a mile can change by up to 50% at temperature extrema (NREL 2016; Geotab 2020), heavily impacting vehicle range, charging needs and resulting loads, cost of driving, and consumer experience.". So that is 35% more generation just for the Light Duty classes, so triple and add the Light-Medium (Class 3),Medium (Class 4–6), and Heavy (Class 7–8) vehicles. And it's not just generation - since the renewables and the vehicles are subject to variability over daily, weekly, and seasonal cycles, corresponding energy storage is needed, and of course the transmission network from grid to street level will need four times the present capacity. Good luck with that.

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