Follow Slashdot blog updates by subscribing to our blog RSS feed

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×

Comment Re:What could possibly go wrong? (Score 1) 12

Sort of but not really. Opportunistic crime with low risk is still very present.

My wife is Japanese and grew up in the suburbs of Osaka. One day, when we were living in Germany, she forgot part of the shopping (laundry detergent) in the parking lot of the supermarket. She realized as soon as we were back home, so we drove back "just in case" but ready to purchase it again otherwise. The round trip took one hour. She was shocked that it was still there, someone had moved slightly to the side so it wouldn't be damaged by a car. According to her, in Japan it would have been gone in minutes.

Comment Re: Conspiracy Theorist's Wet Dream (Score 1) 948

OTOH, some people use ceramic tiles, and they're just as heavy. (And probably [my guess] last as long as slate.)

Covering you roof in tile is way cheaper than slate, and the tiles will likely survive 30-odd years *if* you live in an area without much rain in the winter and even longer in an area where it doesn't freeze. Ceramic tiles tend to become porous with age, and quickly degrade if they get frozen while wet in depth. Tile is still slightly cheaper than slate if you only need to replace all the tiles on your roof once in your lifetime. My roof is still covered with slate from the early 1920s, the slate is still pretty much perfect... the issue is actually the corrosion of the nails/hooks holding them in place. (/offtopic)

Comment Re:Maybe we should have built Nuclear (Score 1) 168

Talking of simplistic idiots...

Since turning off its last nuclear reactors in April 2023, Germany has become a net electricity importer. Since then, Germany has imported more than 1327000 MWh of electricity from nuclear reactors in France every single month. For example, in January 2024, Germany exported 86939 MWh to France while importing 1512436 MWh of nuclear power from France.

You can see the "imports from France" stats below, coming from the Statistisches Bundesamt:

  • February 2023: 134679 MWh
  • March 2023:: 335023 MWh
  • April 2023: 489358 MWh
  • May 2023: 1485644 MWh
  • June 2023: 1335892 MWh
  • July 2023: 1398582 MWh
  • August 2023: 1612960 MWh
  • September 2023: 1684971 MWh
  • October 2023: 1341090 MWh
  • November 2023: 1327408 MWh
  • December 2023: 1511512 MWh
  • January 2024: 1512436 MWh

You can see the "exports to France" stats below, also coming from the Statistisches Bundesamt:

  • February 2023: 956694 MWh
  • March 2023:: 898290 MWh
  • April 2023: 484086 MWh
  • May 2023: 67092 MWh
  • June 2023: 138758 MWh
  • July 2023: 186913 MWh
  • August 2023: 112009 MWh
  • September 2023: 55474 MWh
  • October 2023: 92221 MWh
  • November 2023: 81018 MWh
  • December 2023: 95564 MWh
  • January 2024: 86939 MWh

For January 2024, nuclear electricity from France represented 28.6% of Germany's electricity imports (5287907 MWh total imports). The whole year of exports to France is lower than the sum of the two top months of imports from France.

Those imports were probably economical in nature: it was cheaper to buy nuclear electricity from France than to produce it in Germany... hopefully that meant idling lignite/coal/gas on top of lowering the price for the end customer.

In 2022, France was a net importer of electricity for the first time since 1980 (57 TWh imports vs 40.5 TWh exports) because of compounding factors: several nuclear reactors were offline for scheduled maintenance, an extended historical drought dropped both the hydropower production to its lowest level in close to 50 years (14 TWh lower than in 2021) and coolant availability for nuclear reactors. This combination represented a 77 TWh drop in production compared to 2021.

While the Germany import numbers seem huge for 2023, they only represented ~2% of Germany's power generation base for that year.

While the French import numbers seem huge for 2022, they only represented ~3% of France's power generation base for that year.

Comment Re:Japan too (Score 1) 224

de Gaulle had an absolute hatred of the British and did everything he could do to block it.

His assessments that "a number of aspects of Britain's economy, from working practices to agriculture have made Britain incompatible with Europe" and that Britain harbored a "deep-seated hostility to any pan-European project" were pretty much spot on (in hindsight). Obviously he was also opposing Britain joining because Britain would have blocked the CAP and the CAP was seen as vital to France's future. And finally, he was more interested in deepening the bonds of the Inner Six than in expanding the EU at all costs.

Comment Re:Throwing the baby out with the bathwater (Score 1) 169

How are 51% attacks horribly incorrect? The theoretical cost of a 1 hour 51% attack on BTC is currently about $1.207.000. During that hour of control, the attacker can block transactions, reverse transactions and double spend his BTC. This has happened 3 times to ETH Classic in August 2020 alone. This has happened to BitCoin Gold (twice), this has happened to Verge and others. This attack is currently considered as not profitable enough for BTC, but could still be pulled off by a state actor (like, say... China or the US) that wasn't looking to directly profit off the attack. A single BTC pool crossed the threshold for a 51% attack in July 2014 and voluntarily reduced its size to 39.9%, asking other pools to commit to the same ideal in order to protect trust in the network. There is still no actual long-term real solution to the 51% problem, beyond the commitment to limit the size of pools that is based on good faith alone.

How are the transaction fees I posted horribly incorrect? The source for historical average BTC transaction fees is publically here and in other places. You'll notice they match the numbers I put above. The transaction fee doesn't scale with the value transferred as it is based on the space the transaction will take in the block and the block is effectively limited to 1MB of transactions (a transaction takes input addresses * 180 bytes + output addresses * 34 bytes + 10 bytes +- 1 byte)... so you will effectively pay the same fee to transfer $1 or $1000000 between two addresses. The miner will pick the transactions that will be validated in his block, to maximize the fees collected for that 1MB. If you just pay the calculated fee, you'll eventually be picked by a miner when there are no higher fees transaction left waiting. The historical average fee is higher than the calculated fee, because large users are willing to pay higher fees to be processed ASAP. Huge spikes in transaction fees also happen when there's an issue with the hashrate of the network like the drop in late April this year or when there's a sudden increase of complexity. The transaction fees in late April shot up to $60 when 54% of mining capacity went offline.

How's the BTC concentration in a few wallets horribly incorrect? The sources for the distribution of BTC per wallet are publicly available here, here and in many other places. The data comes from the network. You'll notice that those numbers match what I put above plus a new whale that popped up overnight. This data is unfortunately only a partial view, as it's easy to have multiple wallets... but it still shows that there is an incredible concentration of value in 2157 wallets that may represent less than 1000 whales and the wallets of exchanges. For example, 20 of the top 100 wallets are tagged as exchange wallets.

How's the concept of whales manipulating BTC through pump and dump horribly incorrect? There are numerous articles over the methods used by whales for pump and dump, and how to spot them. A slightly older article on the subject that is a bit outdated now as the whales have increased in count and assets held. There have been numerous articles on the subject in the last few years... by both sides of the bitcoin debate.

Comment Re:Throwing the baby out with the bathwater (Score 1) 169

That's not the point and ultimately won't matter when Bitcoin becomes the world's default currency. No one can take away your bitcoin.

A 51% attack can effectively block you from spending the content of your wallet, or double spend its own. There will be far more incentives to do so, should the pipe dream of it becoming the world's default currency was to come true. It's just good faith based at this point. The largest pool shrunk itself from 51% to 39.99% to inspire confidence in BTC.

No one can threaten your family if you don't give them all your money.

I don't know if I should laugh or cry at the stupidity/innocence of that statement. Oh noes, this man used a world readable ledger to transfer his assets to a code protected wallet... luckily bad guys don't have methods to extract such information from him by using his family! He and his family will be safe now!

You're looking it from a westerners point of view, and your main issue is that people who have more money than you can make large transactions that affect markets... well that's always going to be the case, but at least someone can't steal all your money because your black, Baha'i, a woman, gay, born out of wedlock, etc...

You're busy complaining that in the richest part of the world, you're not the richest of the richest, and I'm saying that if you're someone in the poorest part of the world, at least no one will be able to take away your ability to have financial freedom.

No. I'm saying that like in any other system of monetary value involving humans, the assets ended up pooling in the wallets of a few whales and they effectively control the value of it while being accountable to nobody but themselves. 12 years in, BTC is pretty much a toy of the rich, extracting value from the poor for the rich.

I also don't see how this will help poor people achieve financial freedom when they don't have discretionary spending money. In fact, I see it like I see many initiatives to "bank" the "unbanked/underbanked", "finance" the "underfinanced" (1000+% APR payday lenders in the UK, 35% APR cards in UK, ...): a crass attempt to extract money from the poor, for the benefit of the wealthy. BTC fees are stupidly expensive to transfer small amounts of money and stupidly cheap to transfer large amounts of money. Once again demonstrating the brutally regressive nature of the flat fees systems.

I'm going to take a concrete example in Ghana... the average salary in the lower income group is $83 a month (in rural areas, it can drop to $15), the average salary in the middle income group is $200 a month. The average BTC transaction fee in late April was around $60, it is now $2.6, last week it was $4.5. Ghana is not even in the top 23 poorest countries in the world. 90% of the population in Burundi relies on subsistence farming and the overwhelming majority lives on $1.25 or less per day (only 5% of the population has access to electricity, there is limited access to clean water and sanitation), the majority of the population in the Democratic Republic of Congo lives on less than $2 per day. I think you're the person looking at it from "a rich westerners point of view" by thinking that "financial freedom" even registers on the list of problems that need to be fixed for the population of the poor countries. Poor countries would first need reliable supplies of food, clean water, sanitation and health care to stop the spread of diseases... they would then have more time to devote to the pursuit of economic opportunities.

Comment Re:Darwinism At Work (Score 1) 417

From my friends in Germany or France and Denmark, places I reside often: no one is fat. Simply absolutely no one.

Perhaps you are bad in reading: emphasized that for you.

I'm sitting in a beer garden atm. Only one person is objectively fat. Two or three have a big belly.

That does not look plausible.That would mean a huge deal of Germans would be hiding in their rooms all day long and no one ever sees them. I just came back from my first vaccination. Used the local train. No one was objectively fat in that train. A few would have not been my taste, but that was all of it.

First of all, congrats on the first vaccination! I'm getting the second shot on Saturday. Also thank you for taking the time to reply!

Yes, I wondered if that was what you meant... literally seconds after posting my answer :)

When I lived in Rheinland-Pfalz (2006 to 2016), I saw quite a few people almost at the "mobility scooter" level of morbid obesity. Some of my German friends were so large that I couldn't touch my hands when hugging them. This is a level of obesity I had only seen in the US, UK and Luxembourg before. There is definitely a bit of regionality in it, as RPL is pretty close to the bottom of rankings for healthy living in Germany.

I have since moved to France, in the North-East, and I've seen quite a few fat people around but indeed not many at obesity or above. On top of my head, I've met two in the last 5 years... one freshly retired and one in my age band.

The thing is that the weight of the entire occidental population has been creeping up for the last three centuries and it has sharply accelerated in the last three decades. Simply based on what's surrounding us, what we now consider normal used to be overweight and what we now consider skinny used to be normal. A bit like the story on how to boil a frog... if it's a progressive change over decades, we tend to not notice it. The persons with the big belly in your beer garden would probably have been considered fat/obese 40 years ago and the "objectively fat guy" would have been called a land whale (or local equivalent).

For an example of the change in decades, a study on German conscripts from 1956 to 2010 shows that 28.4% of the 19 years old conscripts in 2010 were overweight (19.9%) or obese (8.5%). For comparison, the 1984 cohort only had 13.7% of overweight (11.6%) or obese (2.1%) conscripts. It roughly matches what I've observed over time in the places where I've lived.

The "fat" kids I went to school with would definitely be considered normal sized by the general population nowadays and the skinnier ones would prompt a visit from social services on suspicion of malnourishment at home. It may sound silly but I had never seen moobs before watching Fight Club, I've seen them in the streets since. Same think with cankles or back-boobs... I had never seen them prior to the early 2000s. Serving sizes have crept up, people eat fast food more often than back in the 1980s. At the same time, a large segment of the population is becoming more and more sedentary. More calories in, less calories out...

From where do you get such ridiculous numbers?

Freely available on the rki.de website, on the OECD website and on many other places. Germany is roughly in the middle of the "Europe" group for obesity (quotes added as both the UK and Turkey are in the same statistics group), not the best but also not the worst.

If you use sane metrics, as kg for weight and cm for height: the "normal weight" is size in cm - 100 -> as kg. So a 160cm person has a normal weight of 60kg. Perfect weight is 10%less - and for women it is another 10% less. No idea what BMI actually is.

You've described something relatively close to BMI, except even more flawed than BMI. First, it doesn't scale up or down very far... it gives a close estimation for average height people but fails on kids, or really short/tall people. Second, women bodies requires about 10% more body fat than men to function properly (not less as in your "perfect weight calculation"). BMI is your weight in kilograms divided by the square of your height in meters. A BMI below 18.4 is underweight, below 14.9 is critically underweight, 18.5 to 24.9 is normal, 25 to 29.9 is overweight, 30 to 34.9 is obesity 1, 35 to 39.9 is obesity 2, above 40 is morbidly obese. For your average sedentary person, a BMI outside the normal range tends to be a good indicator of health risks.

For example, your 160cm person at 60kg is in the normal range but getting close to overweight. That same person at 54kg (your -10% for perfect weight) is roughly in the middle of the normal range. That same person at 64kg has crossed the overweight line. That same person at 77kg has crossed the obesity line. At 90kg, that person reached class 2 obesity and would hit morbid obesity at 103kg.

No one is using it here. It is considered a "useless metric" :P

No one except your doctor, your Krankenkasse, the Bundeswehr, the Statistisches Bundesamt, Eurostat, the OECD, the WHO and so on. TK (as a German Krankenkasse example) uses a slightly modified scale for BMI, skewing right for age and lumping anything above "obese" in one group.

While I agree that BMI is useless for outliers in the data set and shouldn't be used as a single measure for an individual... it is still a good initial risk measure for 95% of the male population (and 99% of the female population) and a good statistical measure at the population level. A body fat measurement (not with impendence devices, those are junk) will take care of the finer details for individuals. Dexa scans aren't exactly cheap, so there's a cheap proxy measure used first (like BMI and a couple of questions or a waist measurement).

I'm going to take myself for one side of the "outliers" explanation. At my current muscle mass, I'd be in the middle of the overweight range if I dropped to 10% body fat. 10% is the amount of body fat fitness models cut to for photo shoots... the ones where you can see pretty much all muscles and veins under the skin. Competitive bodybuilders temporarily drop to 5% and below for competitions... for just a couple of days usually. 5 years ago, the 10% body fat would have put me squarely in front of the obesity line... I had to reduce weight lifting and can no longer run after surgery, so I've lost some no longer used muscle mass. I could obviously drop more muscle mass by fully giving up on weight lifting and eventually end back in the "normal" BMI range, but being able to pick and carry really heavy stuff without injuring myself is too damn useful.

The other side of "outliers" would be the low lean body mass people... colloquially known as "skinny fat". If you don't have a lot of muscle mass (through lack of exercise), you can be in the "normal" BMI range and still have an unhealthy body fat amount.

Comment Re:Throwing the baby out with the bathwater (Score 1) 169

A lot of his points are valid, but the reality is, something like Bitcoin actually has real potential to replace currency in a way that will be much harder to manipulate and control.

No, it is just replacing who manipulates and controls it... making it very profitable for the people at the top.

Whales can, and do, manipulate the price of bitcoin through large transactions. The price variations between January 20 and now are a textbook example of whales playing pump and dump. The whales bought ~750K BTC between Jan 20 and February 21, then sold ~400K BTC between February 21 and June 21. The price of BTC didn't follow on the first large sale, dropped but recovered quickly on the second sale, fluctuated for three months on the third sale and dropped following the fourth large sale. The whales have then bought back ~80K BTC between June 21 and now at roughly half the peak price they sold at.

The BTC market is relatively young, but has already exceeded the pareto distribution. 2.09% of the addresses hold around 95% of all BTC, 97.91% of all the addresses hold around 5% of all BTC (holding up to 1 BTC each). The top 0.01% of all addresses (the 2156 whale addresses, 1000+ BTC per address) hold 42.21% of all BTC, while the bottom 51.19% of all addresses hold 0.02% of all BTC (addresses holding up to 0.001 BTC).

Comment Re:Darwinism At Work (Score 1) 417

From my friends in Germany or France and Denmark, places I reside often: no one is fat. Simply absolutely no one.

If you define fat as "obese" (BMI above 30): the obesity rates (2020 Data) are 21.6% for France, 19.7% for Denmark (up from 10% in 2001!) and 22.3% for Germany. Those are lower than the United States (36.5%, the highest for OECD countries) or the United Kingdom (27.8%) but hardly count as "Simply absolutely no one".

If you define fat as "overweight" (BMI above 25): about 40% of the population in France, 52% in Denmark and 67% of males (with 53% of females) in Germany. Lower than the United States at 68% of adults being overweight. But once again hardly "absolutely no one".

Comment Re:Case in point (Score 1) 363

American Journal of Medicines [newsweek.com]

From the article:

The article presents data from the time showing that in a test tube lab, the drugs interfered with the normal reproduction of the coronavirus. Therefore, the authors advocate for more testing into the effect of HCQ and other agents on COVID-19. ... Subsequent studies came out that showed the drug did not work on patients who were already sick. Alpert said the drug may be useful as a preventative measure but those studies have not been widely done.

The article exactly confirms what I said: in vitro HCQ interferes with the reproduction of the virus in infected cells (through pH changes), but it didn't actually work in vivo (because the virus uses another mechanism to reproduce in the lungs). As I added above, the concentration required to make it work in vitro was anyways 250% of the toxic level for humans.

The studies as a preventative measure have been done. I have linked to those above, and have proved it didn't work in either possible cases: after contact and before contact. I'm adding more below.

From the study Mortality outcomes with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine in COVID-19 from an international collaborative meta-analysis of randomized trials published in April 2021:

Regarding HCQ, in the 26 included trials, 606 of 4316 (14.0%) patients treated with HCQ died and 960 of 5696 patients (16.9%) in the control groups died (within 19 trials with a 1:1 randomization ratio, 7.7% of patients in the HCQ arm died [181 of 2346] and 7.1% of patients in the control arm died [168 of 2352]). In the meta-analysis, the combined odds ratio (OR) was 1.11 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02–1.20, p=0.02), with low heterogeneity (I2=0%) (Fig. 2A). In 12 trials including a total of 1282 patients (representing 12.8% of the total sample size for HCQ), there were zero deaths in both arms.

From the study Effect of Early Treatment With Hydroxychloroquine or Lopinavir and Ritonavir on Risk of Hospitalization Among Patients With COVID-19 published in April 2021:

In this trial that included 685 patients, rates of COVID-19–associated hospitalization in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine or lopinavir-ritonavir were not significantly different compared with those who received placebo. ... Results Of 685 participants, 632 (92.3%) self-identified as mixed-race, 377 (55.0%) were women, and the median (range) age was 53 (18-94) years. A total of 214 participants were randomized to hydroxychloroquine; 244, lopinavir-ritonavir; and 227, placebo. At first interim analysis, the data safety monitoring board recommended stopping enrollment of both hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir-ritonavir groups because of futility. The proportion of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 was 3.7% (8 participants) in the hydroxychloroquine group, 5.7% (14 participants) in the lopinavir-ritonavir group, and 4.8% (11 participants) in the placebo group. We found no significant differences between interventions for COVID-19–associated hospitalization (hydroxychloroquine: hazard ratio [HR], 0.76 [95% CI, 0.30-1.88]; lopinavir-ritonavir: HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.53-2.56] as well as for the secondary outcome of viral clearance through day 14 (hydroxychloroquine: odds ratio [OR], 0.91 [95% CI, 0.82-1.02]; lopinavir-ritonavir: OR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.94-1.16]). At the end of the trial, there were 3 fatalities recorded, 1 in the placebo group and 2 in the lopinavir-ritonavir intervention group. Conclusions and Relevance In this randomized clinical trial, neither hydroxychloroquine nor lopinavir-ritonavir showed any significant benefit for decreasing COVID-19–associated hospitalization or other secondary clinical outcomes.

From the study https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2021801 published in February 2021:

RESULTS The analysis included 2314 healthy contacts of 672 index case patients with Covid-19 who were identified between March 17 and April 28, 2020. A total of 1116 contacts were randomly assigned to receive hydroxychloroquine and 1198 to receive usual care. Results were similar in the hydroxychloroquine and usual-care groups with respect to the incidence of PCR-confirmed, symptomatic Covid-19 (5.7% and 6.2%, respectively; risk ratio, 0.86 [95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.42]). In addition, hydroxychloroquine was not associated with a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission than usual care (18.7% and 17.8%, respectively). The incidence of adverse events was higher in the hydroxychloroquine group than in the usual-care group (56.1% vs. 5.9%), but no treatment-related serious adverse events were reported.

Comment Re:Case in point (Score 4, Informative) 363

Lied about drugs known for decades — HCQ and Azitromycin — being ineffective, just to avoid being seen supporting Trump.

Study after study have proved that HCQ was ineffective in vivo for viral infections, this was known before COVID. In vitro, HCQ prevents replication through pH changes at an extracellular 5 M concentration... the toxic concentration in plasma for humans is 2 M. The replication mechanism in the lungs is also different, and isn't impacted by pH changes. Clinical trials still went ahead all over the world and demonstrated what was already known. The first clinical trial results were already out in late March 2020 and published in early April 2020. HCQ with Azitromycin was worse than ineffective: it increased mortality.

HCQ doesn't improve outcomes for already infected persons, HCQ with Azitromycin increases mortality: Effect of hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin on the mortality of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

HCQ doesn't improve outcomes for people recently exposed to infected persons: A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19

HCQ doesn't improve outcomes if taken before exposure: Effect of pre-exposure use of hydroxychloroquine on COVID-19 mortality: a population-based cohort study in patients with rheumatoid arthritis or systemic lupus erythematosus using the OpenSAFELY platform

In other words, it was tested and simply didn't work.

Comment Re:Well, that is pretty much it (Score 1) 41

One thing is that they will have to reliably identify all users. Another is full record-keeping of any and all exchanges, to be archived for 10 years. Another is yearly audits. And some more.

The identification will be required upfront, and specific proof of identity and/or proof of address will be required once the customer hits a specific transaction threshold. The archival period of the transactions will vary based on the specific implementation of PSD2 (or divergence from it after BREXIT). At the moment, it is 5 years after the end of the contractual relationship between the exchange and the customer but can be extended to 10 years by the local regulator. The game then becomes one of definition of "active customer". Leftover funds from an "inactive customer" are supposed to be put in escrow with the regulator if the customer failed to manifest itself following repeated notifications from the exchange.

The exchange will also need to demonstrate segregation of duties, appropriate protection of PII Data and financial data, segregation of funds, fund recovery policies, business continuity and disaster recovery policies (of course with matching processes, with annual successful testing), documented governance, proper due diligence for their outsourced activities (hosting, for example)...

Slashdot Top Deals

Their idea of an offer you can't refuse is an offer... and you'd better not refuse.

Working...