Comment 90% accurate 10% rate of false positives (Score 1) 365
How can this counter-intuitive fact be communicated effectively to people unschooled in statistics?"
We could start by never claiming any test is X% accurate. Any detection scheme for anything cannot have it's accuracy defined by only one number. You need at least two numbers...the rate of false negatives (or efficiency, which is what is usually quoted), AND the rate of false positives to get a picture of what any test will be capable of...Even the example in the linked article was wrong. a 90% efficient test does not necessarily have a 10% rate of false positives. It could have a 1% rate of FP, or a 50% rate of false positives. Saying a test is 90% accurate has no meaning by itself.