Not going to recap week 3, its too much busy work really. I went 10-4 anyhow. Overall, I 26-20 (.565).

Here are my picks for week 4:

Sunday, Oct. 2
Buffalo at New Orleans, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Bills.

Denver at Jacksonville, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Broncos. The Broncos are one of those teams that loses games they should win and wins games they should lose- end result is they get 10 wins a year somehow.

Detroit at Tampa Bay, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Bucs. Tampa Bay is looking real good right now, wait until the second half for them to sag.

Houston at Cincinnati, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Bengals. The Texans have issues and the right now the Bengals do not.

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Colts. Tennessee's defense is not that great so Peyton Manning should finally get it going.

Philadelphia at Kansas City, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Chiefs. I know McNabb thinks that he can play through the pain but he did not look good against Oakland and was often off target.

San Diego at New England, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Chargers. Don't let the record fool you, the Patriots have yet to look good and were damn lucky to when against the Steelers last week and it was an expensive losing Harrison, Light, and Faulk. The Chargers seem to have finally got it going. I don't care if the Patriots don't lose at home, they will this week.

Seattle at Washington, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Redskins. Seahawks can never play well for too long.

St. Louis at N.Y. Giants, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Rams. Eli Manning looks like he has finally started to understand things but that won't help them this week.

N.Y. Jets at Baltimore, 4:05 p.m.
I like the Ravens. A battle of two clunkers. I'm going with the team with the better defense.

Dallas at Oakland, 4:15 p.m.
I like the Cowboys. Oakland is not as bad as their 0-3 record but I think the Cowboys find a way to win.

Minnesota at Atlanta, 4:15 p.m.
I like the Falcons. The Falcons looked really good against Buffalo, who has a much better defense than Minnesota.

San Francisco at Arizona, 8:30 p.m.
I like the Cardinals. I don't really know why. Flip a coin.

Monday, Oct. 3
Green Bay at Carolina, 9:00 p.m.
I like the Panthers. Carolina needs to get back to .500.

Sunday, Sep. 25
Atlanta at Buffalo, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Falcons. Tough game to pick. I don't know if Vick is going to play and that scares me but I don't like the way Losman played last week. The early word on Losman is that he is not very good under presure.

Carolina at Miami, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Panthers. The Panthers looked better in their win than the Dolphins did in theirs.

Cincinnati at Chicago, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Bengals. With the way the Bengals are playing it makes sense to ride them until their streak ends. I don't think the Bengals defense has really been tested yet and it probably will not be in this game.

Cleveland at Indianapolis, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Colts. The Colts' offense is not clicking yet but they are pratically unbeatable at home.

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Jaguars. For the Jets sake I hope they start well because their fans can be rather toxic. Curtis Martin might finally be showing his age and Blaylock is a career backup for a reason.

New Orleans at Minnesota, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Saints. The Vikings are just looking bad right now and just like you are supposed to ride out winning streaks I think you have to ride out this losing streak.

Oakland at Philadelphia, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Eagles. This could be a very tough game for the Eagles. I am not sold on the Eagles. I do not like Philadelphia's lack of a running game and their defense really has not been tested yet. The Oakland passing game is starting to come together but I don't know about their run game.

As for the the Moss-Owens debate, Moss is the more athletic of the two but Owens is stronger, runs better routes, and always gives his all in games.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Buccaneers. Green Bay is not very good right now.

Tennessee at St. Louis, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Rams. I really don't know why, I just don't trust the Titans yet.

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 p.m.
I like the Seahawks. The Seahawks seem to play better at home and Arizona does not seem ready to break through yet, maybe next year.

Dallas at San Francisco, 4:05 p.m.
I like the Cowboys. The Cowboys will bounce back from a bad Monday game.

New England at Pittsburgh, 4:15 p.m.
I like the Steelers. These two teams met twice last year with each team winning one. The Patriots were more beat up when the Steelers won and the Steelers were more beat up when the Patriots won. The way the Steelers won last year was a lot more convincing than the way the Patriots won (even if the Patriots win was a playoff game).

N.Y. Giants at San Diego, 8:30 p.m.
I like the Chargers. This could be a real ugly game for Eli Manning. Those San Diego fans should give him hell. With all that said, the Charger fans should really thank Manning. What I mean, is that it was a good trade for the Chargers because they did not really need a quarterback after all!

Monday, Sep. 26
Kansas City at Denver, 9:00 p.m.
I like the Chiefs. This was a really hard game for me to pick because I think these two teams are about even and the Broncos probably have an edge since they are playing in Denver but I'm still going with the Chiefs.

Week 2 Recap:
My picks this past week went 7-9. Overall, I am 16-16.

Baltimore 10 at Tennessee 25, 1:00 p.m.
Wow, the Titans did a complete turn-around from week 1. I am starting to wonder if Jamal Lewis is healthy.

Buffalo 3 at Tampa Bay 19, 1:00 p.m.
Wow, Tampa Bay's defense is looking really good and they seem to have a horse in Williams. The Bills just could not get it done on offense.

Detroit 6 at Chicago 38, 1:00 p.m.
Good win for the Bears. One of these two teams could very easily be the NFC North winners this year!

Jacksonville 3 at Indianapolis 10, 1:00 p.m.
Really did not expect this game to be that close or low scoring. Still not sold on the Colts' defense although I like how they were able to get after Leftwich and rough him up.

Minnesota 8 at Cincinnati 37, 1:00 p.m.
The Bengals are for real. The Vikings need some help.

New England 17 at Carolina 27, 1:00 p.m.
Well the Panthers earned contender status for a little while longer. Neither team played all that well.

N.Y. Giants 27 at New Orleans 10(really at New York on Monday), 1:00 p.m.
What can I say, I got caught up in the Saints hype and picked them. Eli did not look great but good enough.

Pittsburgh 27 at Houston 7, 1:00 p.m.
What a great game for the Steelers. Just don't know how good the Steelers are yet.

San Francisco 3 at Philadelphia 42, 1:00 p.m.
What a surprise, the 49ers could not make it two in a row. McNabb and T.O. schooled the 49ers.

Atlanta 21 at Seattle 18, 4:05 p.m.
The Falcons and Vick had a chance late after playing a bad first half but Vick came up lame with a hammy. I really think the Falcons would have won had Vick not pulled his hammy. Hope the Seahawks can really build on this win.

St. Louis 17 at Arizona 12, 4:05 p.m.
The trend continues, the Rams hurt me. The Cardinals were in it until the very end.

Cleveland at Green Bay, 4:15 p.m.
Things are not looking good for the Packers. I don't think the Browns are very good but it seems the Packers are even worse right now. I don't think Favre is concentrating on football right, that is not a knock on the guy but it is not good for Green Bay.

Miami 7 at N.Y. Jets 17, 4:15 p.m.
The Jets are still having problems with fumbles but they won this week. When is this Ronnie Brown kid with Miami going to show us something?

San Diego 20 at Denver 17, 4:15 p.m.
Better days are ahead for San Diego, I think.

Kansas City 23 at Oakland 17, 8:30 p.m.
The best thing about this game may of been the pleasant surprise of not having the regular Sunday night announcers. Guess those Sunday night big shots cannot do games on consecutive nights. I was more impressed with Oakland's defense than with Kansas City's offense.

Monday, Sep. 19
Washington 14 at Dallas 13, 9:00 p.m
Redskins come up with the surprising win. Celebrated way too much afterwards, why? One of these teams will make the playoffs.

Week 1 Recap:
My Picks(9-7)
Thursday, Sep. 8
Oakland at New England, 9:00 p.m.
New England 30 Oakland 20
Well, I took Oakland in this one. I knew it was a gutsy pick and the game ended up being a lot closer than what most people thought- I was still on the wrong end though.

I watched until Collins threw that interception. From what I saw, New England did not look good. New England had too many penalties, their run defense did not look great, and Corey Dillon struggled (and perhaps even pouting). I thought Rodney Harrison was some great tackler? He could not tackle Moss. I was disappointed to see that Sports Illustrated call this game a rout, it was not.

Sunday, Sep. 11
Chicago at Washington, 1:00 p.m.
Washington 9 Chicago 7
No real comment about this game, but I picked the Redskins! That score is correct.

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 p.m.
Cincinnati 27 Clevend 13
What's new? The Bengals looked good early in the season! Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson had good solid games.

Denver at Miami, 1:00 p.m.
Miami 34 Denver 10
What a surprise! Well, I did say that Miami was not as bad as they looked last season but I did not think they were good enough to beat the Broncos.

Houston at Buffalo, 1:00 p.m.
Buffalo 22 Houston 7
Houston did not look good. David Carr did not look good. I do not know what is going on in Houton.

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 p.m.
New Orleans 23 Carolina 20
Carolina had their chances but squandered them. The way the Saints played, they deserved to win. I don't think the Saints can keep it up with Aaron Brooks at quarterback but who knows.

N.Y. Jets at Kansas City, 1:00 p.m.
Kansas City 27 New York 7
What a sloppy game for the Jets. I really don't understand why the Jets went the direction they did with their offense. I think a West Coast type offense would have made a lot more sense. Why? Because a good West Coast offense demands a lot of short accurate passes which goes with Pennington's reputation. Instead the Jets go with some vertical stretch the field offense. Okay, we saw that offense with the Titans and that got McNair rather beat up; did I mention that Pennington is not exactly the most durable guy?

Seattle at Jacksonville, 1:00 p.m.
Jacksonville 26 Seattle 14
Seattle just failed to show up on the field. What a shame.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota, 1:00 p.m.
Tampa Bay 24 Minnesota 13
Randy who? Oh wait, maybe the Vikings could of used him. I don't think that Mike Tice deserves to be a head coach and it is starting to look like he won't be much longer.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh, 1:00 p.m.
Pittsburth 34 Tennessee 7
This is the only game I watched all the way through and I think the Steelers were the most impressive team for week 1. To be fair, the Titans had a large hand in making the Steelers looking good. Considering the Titans record from last year, it is tough to say if the Steelers were making plays or if the Titans were just screwing up. It is a good thing when Rothlisberger only attempts 11 passes.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants, 4:15 p.m.
New York 42 Arizona 19
I don't know what to write here. Think the Giants can keep Plaxico interested the whole year?

Dallas at San Diego, 4:15 p.m.
Dallas 28 San Diego 24
What a game! Essentially went down to the last play of the game. Might have been a different game had Gates played for the Chargers but he didn't. I just caught the end of the game and I got the feeling that the Cowboys really did not deserve to win but they made the plays at the end.

Green Bay at Detroit, 4:15 p.m.
Detroit 17 Green Bay 3
Brett Farve will have better days; his performance will not become a norm. I understand that Green did not look good running the ball, but they still have good backups.

St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:15 p.m.
San Francisco 28 St. Louis 25
Another surprise! Don't get used to it San Francisco fans?

Indianapolis at Baltimore, 8:30 p.m.
Indianapolis 24 Baltimore 7
The Baltimore defense looked good in the first half but it was obvious that they were trying too hard and just expending energy. I am not ready to jump onto that Colts' defense wagon just yet, it was only the Ravens they stopped. The game reminded me a lot of the game these two played last year. The Ravens can't hold the Colts down.

Jamal Lewis was uneffective and Boller left early. Ogden and Suggs had too many silly penalties.

Monday, Sep. 12
Philadelphia at Atlanta, 9:00 p.m.
Atlanta 14 Philadelphia 10
Did not watch the whole thing but saw most of the scoring. I don't care if Vick is not the greatest passer, he won and that is what matters in the end. Yes Philly missed Trotter but Atlanta still had to take advantage of it; and boy did they. The Eagles could use a real running back.

Week 2 Forecast:
Baltimore at Tennessee, 1:00 p.m.
I think I have to go with the Ravens here. The Ravens looked a lot better in their lost to the Colts than the Titans did in their lost to the Steelers. Should be interesting if only to gauge how good the Steelers really are.

Buffalo at Tampa Bay, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Bills. On offense, these two teams are pretty even. The Bills probably have the better defense.

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 p.m.
I like Detroit. While I was not impressed with Detroit's win last week, I do not think the Bears can beat them.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 p.m.
I like Indianpolis. How can someone really pick against the Colts right now? They have something to prove.

Minnesota at Cincinnati, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Bengals for this one. Minnesota is a team searching for an identity. Rudi and Carson will take the Bengals to another win.

New England at Carolina, 1:00 p.m.
I am going to go with the Panthers here. I don't like Patriots and think they are destined to fall this year. That opinion will probably cost me here but so be it. We get to see if the Panthers are pretenders or contenders.

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (really at New York on Monday), 1:00 p.m.
I like the Saints for this one. The Saints showed a lot more in week 1 than the Giants did.

Pittsburgh at Houston, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Steelers. Houston did not look good in week 1 and I don't expect them to look much better against the Steelers. After week 3, Fast Willie Parker could easily have 400-500 yards rushing! Look for the Steelers to bring Bettis and Staley along slowly and this is a good thing because it has been a while since Pittsburgh has had a truly healthy starting halfback in the playoffs.

San Francisco at Philadelphia, 1:00 p.m.
I like the Eagles. The Eagles are not the Rams. I don't care if the 49ers won last week and want to make some sort of statement against T.O..

Atlanta at Seattle, 4:05 p.m.
I like the Falcons. Seattle is not bad but Atlanta is better. Atlanta will run all over Seattle just like they did to Philly last week.

St. Louis at Arizona, 4:05 p.m.
I like the Cardinals. The Rams are an enigma, they hurt me when I pick them and they hurt me when I pick against them.

Cleveland at Green Bay, 4:15 p.m.
I like the Packers. Brett Farve will be Brett Farve. The Browns are not as good as the Lions.

Miami at N.Y. Jets, 4:15 p.m.
I like the Jets! The Jets are not as bad as they looked last week, I hope. Miami may of won last week but they still have more to prove.

San Diego at Denver, 4:15 p.m.
I like the Chargers. The Chargers should be getting Gates back and that should be enough and if it is not, the Broncos still have Jake Plummer at quarterback.

Kansas City at Oakland, 8:30 p.m.
I like the Chiefs. The Raiders are looking for some sort of offensive identity.

Monday, Sep. 19
Washington at Dallas, 9:00 p.m
I like the Cowboys. The Redskins have quarterback issues again. Dallas has enough offense and defense to be relevant again.

Strength of schedule:
Strength of schedule is perhaps one of the most important things in the NFL. Over the past four years, only twice has a team with a schedule in the top-12 in difficulty made the playoffs! Too bad strength of schedule cannot be calculated until after the season. Maybe now it is not absurd to suggest that it is possible for the NFL to bury good teams? They just cannot know what teams they are burying so they try to bury most of the good teams.

I am one of those goofy guys who belives that those divisional games are likely result in splits rather than one team sweeping another. Goofy things happen when you play a team twice a year. Good teams run the table in their own division, the Steelers and Patriots were both 5-1 in their own divisions last year. Anyhow, I have removed divisional games from the following mock strength of schedules charts:

Estimated Strength of Schedule for Home Games
1.) Raiders 0.3625 2.) Browns 0.3625 3.) Buccaneers 0.375 4.) Saints 0.375 5.) Redskins 0.4125 6.) Titans 0.4125 7.) 49ers 0.45 8.) Cowboys 0.4625 9.) Bears 0.4625 10.) Eagles 0.475 11.) Jaguars 0.475 12.) Giants 0.4875 13.) Jets 0.4875 14.) Steelers 0.4875 15.) Texans 0.5 16.) Vikings 0.5 17.) Dolphins 0.5 18.) Chargers 0.5 19.) Cardinals 0.5 20.) Lions 0.5125 21.) Packers 0.5125 22.) Rams 0.5125 23.) Seahawks 0.525 24.) Bills 0.525 25.) Patriots 0.525 26.) Colts 0.5625 27.) Bengals 0.575 28.) Ravens 0.5875 29.) Panthers 0.6 30.) Chiefs 0.6375 31.) Broncos 0.65 32.) Falcons 0.6875

Estimated Strength of Schedule for Away Games
1.) Panthers 0.375 2.) Chiefs 0.4 3.) Bengals 0.4 4.) Falcons 0.4125 5.) Dolphins 0.425 6.) Broncos 0.425 7.) Cowboys 0.4375 8.) Ravens 0.4375 9.) Giants 0.45 10.) Redskins 0.45 11.) Cardinals 0.4625 12.) Texans 0.4625 13.) Titans 0.4625 14.) Bears 0.475 15.) Lions 0.475 16.) Bills 0.475 17.) 49ers 0.475 18.) Rams 0.4875 19.) Vikings 0.5125 20.) Eagles 0.525 21.) Browns 0.525 22.) Colts 0.525 23.) Jaguars 0.5375 24.) Seahawks 0.5375 25.) Buccaneers 0.55 26.) Jets 0.55 27.) Raiders 0.6 28.) Packers 0.6 29.) Steelers 0.6125 30.) Saints 0.625 31.) Patriots 0.625 32.) Chargers 0.6875

Estimated Strength of Schedule Overall
1.) Redskins 0.43125 2.) Titans 0.4375 3.) Browns 0.44375 4.) Cowboys 0.45 5.) Buccaneers 0.4625 6.) Dolphins 0.4625 7.) 49ers 0.4625 8.) Bears 0.46875 9.) Giants 0.46875 10.) Cardinals 0.48125 11.) Raiders 0.48125 12.) Texans 0.48125 13.) Panthers 0.4875 14.) Bengals 0.4875 15.) Lions 0.49375 16.) Eagles 0.5 17.) Bills 0.5 18.) Saints 0.5 19.) Rams 0.5 20.) Vikings 0.50625 21.) Jaguars 0.50625 22.) Ravens 0.5125 23.) Jets 0.51875 24.) Chiefs 0.51875 25.) Seahawks 0.53125 26.) Broncos 0.5375 27.) Colts 0.54375 28.) Steelers 0.55 29.) Falcons 0.55 30.) Packers 0.55625 31.) Patriots 0.575 32.) Chargers 0.59375

These are just rough estimations going off of last season's regular season record and are sure to change. The teams around each other on this estimation are probably playing each other so there will be some natural raising and sinking. I think this is something worth more examinations around mid-season.

It is interesting to see that the Broncos and Chiefs have two of the toughest home schedules, those are said to be rather tough places to play at. How did the Eagles end up with such an easy schedule? I think the Redskins and/or theCowboys will make the playoffs and that it will be very difficult for the Packers, Patriots, and Chargers to all make the playoffs.

I did peak at the estimations with divisional games included and there were some surprises. The Dolphins have the toughest overall schedule. The min and max were .4453125 and .546875, the min was further from .5 than the max was. The Bengals and Ravens have a tougher overall schedule than the Steelers. The Eagles have the third easiest overall schedule.

Thursday, Sep. 8
Oakland at New England, 9:00 p.m.
New England has looked really good in their openers lately but I will go against logic and take Oakland. If the Raiders can jump out to a quick lead then they should be set. If the Raiders lose it is because the NFL wants to punish Al Davis, he has already that up you see.

Sunday, Sep. 11
Chicago at Washington, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take Washington here. I do not knot how good the Redskins are but they are probably better than the Bears. The Redskins have made some adjustments for Portis and the Bears once again need a quarterback.

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Bengals. If Bengals put everything together on offense consistently look out. The problem with the Bengals will be defense and in the long term front office mismanagement. The Browns are once again re-building, my opinion on that is that Crennel was a good pick-up but Savage was a questionable pick-up.

Denver at Miami, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Broncos. I do not think that the Dolphins will be as bad as they were last year but the Broncos are just better than them.

Houston at Buffalo, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Bills. The Texans are going about things the right way but I am not convinced they are there yet. I really do not like or trust the Mularky/Donahoe coupling in Buffalo but that just means the will destruct a lot sooner than they should.

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Panthers. Everybody thinks the Panthers could be a force this year, me included. The Saints could be good but they have issues right now.

N.Y. Jets at Kansas City, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Chiefs. Arrowhead Stadium can be a scary place to play and the Jets have yet to prove they can win at the scary places. I do not know how good the Chiefs will be this season but it should not matter in this game.

Seattle at Jacksonville, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Seahawks. The Jaguars are a team on the rise but I have not seen enough in Leftwich to trust him. I do not know anything about the Seahawks' defense but their offense could be very good.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Vikings here. The Vikings will find a way to put more points on the board, that simple.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Steelers. The Steelers seem forced to start some kid named Willie Parker because of injuries but Parker is also lightning in a bottle. The Bettis and Staley injuries are really not serious and this team should be healthy coming out of their week 4 bye. A big part of the Steelers game though is time of possession and I do not think that Parker is enough of a between the tackles presence. McNair made a mistake by coming back, he is setting himself up for a rather painful post-football life and besides the Titans are not going anywhere. The Titans were wise to pick up Travis Henry, good back.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants, 4:15 p.m.
I'll take the Cardinals. Denny Green needs to either start working his magic in the desert or he will be out of work again. The Giants are probably a year or two away from being good.

Dallas at San Diego, 4:15 p.m.
I'll take the Cowboys. I am not convinced that the Chargers are for real although I must say I can't think of any obvious hole. The Cowboys have a running back now and a bigger defense than last year.

Green Bay at Detroit, 4:15 p.m.
I'll take the Lions. The Pack are still trying to put things together. The Lions could have a really scary offense if they find a trigger man. I have not seen enough of Harrington to say it is him but Garcia is washed up.

St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:15 p.m.
I'll take the Rams. The 49ers were probably the worst team in the NFL last year by a large margin and I do not think they have improved that significantly. I do not think Mike Nolan was deserving of a head coaching job either- there is a reason the Ravens are moving away from the 3-4 defense that he had installed.

Indianapolis at Baltimore, 8:30 p.m.
I'll take the Colts here. When it is all over the Colts will have more points on the board than the Ravens. The Ravens offense will make strides this year under Jim Fassel but it will not matter, certainly not in week 1.

Monday, Sep. 12
Philadelphia at Atlanta, 9:00 p.m.
I'll take the Falcons here. The Falcons are building a complete team and it will become more evident this year. Yes, Vick needs to learn how to stay in the pocket but come the fourth quarter when he is a lot fresher than the defense, it suddenly becomes exponentially more difficult to stop the dude. The Falcons seem to be a good running team even without Vick and the Eagles have had their problems with the run in the past, although the Eagles seem to think that is fixed. Should be interesting.