NFLFan's Journal: NFL Week 1

Strength of schedule:
Strength of schedule is perhaps one of the most important things in the NFL. Over the past four years, only twice has a team with a schedule in the top-12 in difficulty made the playoffs! Too bad strength of schedule cannot be calculated until after the season. Maybe now it is not absurd to suggest that it is possible for the NFL to bury good teams? They just cannot know what teams they are burying so they try to bury most of the good teams.

I am one of those goofy guys who belives that those divisional games are likely result in splits rather than one team sweeping another. Goofy things happen when you play a team twice a year. Good teams run the table in their own division, the Steelers and Patriots were both 5-1 in their own divisions last year. Anyhow, I have removed divisional games from the following mock strength of schedules charts:

Estimated Strength of Schedule for Home Games
1.) Raiders 0.3625 2.) Browns 0.3625 3.) Buccaneers 0.375 4.) Saints 0.375 5.) Redskins 0.4125 6.) Titans 0.4125 7.) 49ers 0.45 8.) Cowboys 0.4625 9.) Bears 0.4625 10.) Eagles 0.475 11.) Jaguars 0.475 12.) Giants 0.4875 13.) Jets 0.4875 14.) Steelers 0.4875 15.) Texans 0.5 16.) Vikings 0.5 17.) Dolphins 0.5 18.) Chargers 0.5 19.) Cardinals 0.5 20.) Lions 0.5125 21.) Packers 0.5125 22.) Rams 0.5125 23.) Seahawks 0.525 24.) Bills 0.525 25.) Patriots 0.525 26.) Colts 0.5625 27.) Bengals 0.575 28.) Ravens 0.5875 29.) Panthers 0.6 30.) Chiefs 0.6375 31.) Broncos 0.65 32.) Falcons 0.6875

Estimated Strength of Schedule for Away Games
1.) Panthers 0.375 2.) Chiefs 0.4 3.) Bengals 0.4 4.) Falcons 0.4125 5.) Dolphins 0.425 6.) Broncos 0.425 7.) Cowboys 0.4375 8.) Ravens 0.4375 9.) Giants 0.45 10.) Redskins 0.45 11.) Cardinals 0.4625 12.) Texans 0.4625 13.) Titans 0.4625 14.) Bears 0.475 15.) Lions 0.475 16.) Bills 0.475 17.) 49ers 0.475 18.) Rams 0.4875 19.) Vikings 0.5125 20.) Eagles 0.525 21.) Browns 0.525 22.) Colts 0.525 23.) Jaguars 0.5375 24.) Seahawks 0.5375 25.) Buccaneers 0.55 26.) Jets 0.55 27.) Raiders 0.6 28.) Packers 0.6 29.) Steelers 0.6125 30.) Saints 0.625 31.) Patriots 0.625 32.) Chargers 0.6875

Estimated Strength of Schedule Overall
1.) Redskins 0.43125 2.) Titans 0.4375 3.) Browns 0.44375 4.) Cowboys 0.45 5.) Buccaneers 0.4625 6.) Dolphins 0.4625 7.) 49ers 0.4625 8.) Bears 0.46875 9.) Giants 0.46875 10.) Cardinals 0.48125 11.) Raiders 0.48125 12.) Texans 0.48125 13.) Panthers 0.4875 14.) Bengals 0.4875 15.) Lions 0.49375 16.) Eagles 0.5 17.) Bills 0.5 18.) Saints 0.5 19.) Rams 0.5 20.) Vikings 0.50625 21.) Jaguars 0.50625 22.) Ravens 0.5125 23.) Jets 0.51875 24.) Chiefs 0.51875 25.) Seahawks 0.53125 26.) Broncos 0.5375 27.) Colts 0.54375 28.) Steelers 0.55 29.) Falcons 0.55 30.) Packers 0.55625 31.) Patriots 0.575 32.) Chargers 0.59375

These are just rough estimations going off of last season's regular season record and are sure to change. The teams around each other on this estimation are probably playing each other so there will be some natural raising and sinking. I think this is something worth more examinations around mid-season.

It is interesting to see that the Broncos and Chiefs have two of the toughest home schedules, those are said to be rather tough places to play at. How did the Eagles end up with such an easy schedule? I think the Redskins and/or theCowboys will make the playoffs and that it will be very difficult for the Packers, Patriots, and Chargers to all make the playoffs.

I did peak at the estimations with divisional games included and there were some surprises. The Dolphins have the toughest overall schedule. The min and max were .4453125 and .546875, the min was further from .5 than the max was. The Bengals and Ravens have a tougher overall schedule than the Steelers. The Eagles have the third easiest overall schedule.

Thursday, Sep. 8
Oakland at New England, 9:00 p.m.
New England has looked really good in their openers lately but I will go against logic and take Oakland. If the Raiders can jump out to a quick lead then they should be set. If the Raiders lose it is because the NFL wants to punish Al Davis, he has already that up you see.

Sunday, Sep. 11
Chicago at Washington, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take Washington here. I do not knot how good the Redskins are but they are probably better than the Bears. The Redskins have made some adjustments for Portis and the Bears once again need a quarterback.

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Bengals. If Bengals put everything together on offense consistently look out. The problem with the Bengals will be defense and in the long term front office mismanagement. The Browns are once again re-building, my opinion on that is that Crennel was a good pick-up but Savage was a questionable pick-up.

Denver at Miami, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Broncos. I do not think that the Dolphins will be as bad as they were last year but the Broncos are just better than them.

Houston at Buffalo, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Bills. The Texans are going about things the right way but I am not convinced they are there yet. I really do not like or trust the Mularky/Donahoe coupling in Buffalo but that just means the will destruct a lot sooner than they should.

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Panthers. Everybody thinks the Panthers could be a force this year, me included. The Saints could be good but they have issues right now.

N.Y. Jets at Kansas City, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Chiefs. Arrowhead Stadium can be a scary place to play and the Jets have yet to prove they can win at the scary places. I do not know how good the Chiefs will be this season but it should not matter in this game.

Seattle at Jacksonville, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Seahawks. The Jaguars are a team on the rise but I have not seen enough in Leftwich to trust him. I do not know anything about the Seahawks' defense but their offense could be very good.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Vikings here. The Vikings will find a way to put more points on the board, that simple.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh, 1:00 p.m.
I'll take the Steelers. The Steelers seem forced to start some kid named Willie Parker because of injuries but Parker is also lightning in a bottle. The Bettis and Staley injuries are really not serious and this team should be healthy coming out of their week 4 bye. A big part of the Steelers game though is time of possession and I do not think that Parker is enough of a between the tackles presence. McNair made a mistake by coming back, he is setting himself up for a rather painful post-football life and besides the Titans are not going anywhere. The Titans were wise to pick up Travis Henry, good back.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants, 4:15 p.m.
I'll take the Cardinals. Denny Green needs to either start working his magic in the desert or he will be out of work again. The Giants are probably a year or two away from being good.

Dallas at San Diego, 4:15 p.m.
I'll take the Cowboys. I am not convinced that the Chargers are for real although I must say I can't think of any obvious hole. The Cowboys have a running back now and a bigger defense than last year.

Green Bay at Detroit, 4:15 p.m.
I'll take the Lions. The Pack are still trying to put things together. The Lions could have a really scary offense if they find a trigger man. I have not seen enough of Harrington to say it is him but Garcia is washed up.

St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:15 p.m.
I'll take the Rams. The 49ers were probably the worst team in the NFL last year by a large margin and I do not think they have improved that significantly. I do not think Mike Nolan was deserving of a head coaching job either- there is a reason the Ravens are moving away from the 3-4 defense that he had installed.

Indianapolis at Baltimore, 8:30 p.m.
I'll take the Colts here. When it is all over the Colts will have more points on the board than the Ravens. The Ravens offense will make strides this year under Jim Fassel but it will not matter, certainly not in week 1.

Monday, Sep. 12
Philadelphia at Atlanta, 9:00 p.m.
I'll take the Falcons here. The Falcons are building a complete team and it will become more evident this year. Yes, Vick needs to learn how to stay in the pocket but come the fourth quarter when he is a lot fresher than the defense, it suddenly becomes exponentially more difficult to stop the dude. The Falcons seem to be a good running team even without Vick and the Eagles have had their problems with the run in the past, although the Eagles seem to think that is fixed. Should be interesting.