I appreciate the wisdom of your reasoning. It is an effective way to deal with incomplete information. But the crucial part of what you consider unknown about climatology is not unknown. It is known, knowable, proven fact.
American Institute of Physics
"As a dam built across a river causes a local deepening of the stream, so our atmosphere, thrown as a barrier across the terrestrial rays, produces a local heightening of the temperature at the Earth's surface." Thus in 1862 John Tyndall described the key to climate change. He had discovered in his laboratory that certain gases, including water vapor and carbon dioxide ( CO2), are opaque to heat rays. He understood that such gases high in the air help keep our planet warm by interfering with escaping radiation.(9)
This kind of intuitive physical reasoning had already appeared in the earliest speculations on how atmospheric composition could affect climate. It was in the 1820s that a French scientist, Joseph Fourier, first realized that the Earth's atmosphere retains heat radiation. He had asked himself a deceptively simple question, of a sort that physics theory was just then beginning to learn how to attack: what determines the average temperature of a planet like the Earth? When light from the Sun strikes the Earth's surface and warms it up, why doesn't the planet keep heating up until it is as hot as the Sun itself? Fourier's answer was that the heated surface emits invisible infrared radiation, which carries the heat energy away into space. But when he calculated the effect with his new theoretical tools, he got a temperature well below freezing, much colder than the actual Earth.(9a*)
The difference, Fourier recognized, was due to the Earth's atmosphere. Somehow it kept part of the heat radiation in. He tried to explain this by comparing the Earth with its covering of air to a box with a glass cover. That was a well-known experiment — the box's interior warms up when sunlight enters while the heat cannot escape.(10) This was an over simple explanation, for it is quite different physics that keeps heat inside an actual glass box, or similarly in a greenhouse. (The main effect of the glass is to keep the air, heated by contact with sun-warmed surfaces, from wafting away, although the glass does also keep heat radiation from escaping.) Nevertheless, trapping of heat by the atmosphere eventually came to be called "the greenhouse effect."(11*)
Not until the mid-20th century would scientists fully grasp, and calculate with some precision, just how the effect works. A rough explanation goes like this. Visible sunlight penetrates easily through the air and warms the Earth’s surface. When the surface emits invisible infrared heat radiation, this radiation too easily penetrates the main gases of the air. But as Tyndall found, even a trace of CO2 or water vapor, no more than it took to fill a bottle in his laboratory, is almost opaque to heat radiation.
This can now be proved in any respectable chem lab.
Roger Wilco:
There are also clues that there is a cause and effect relationship between the two, but as I understand that's less clear.
Marc Morano, Jim Inhoffe and the Viscount #3 of Brenchley, so-called "Christopher Monckton" and their corporate overlords would very much like for us to believe that, but it simply isn't so. As in any field of science broad enough to be its own field, some things remain to be determined. Some of the coupling constants in the Global Circulation Models are known with higher confidence than others. But the first order effect of carbon dioxide on temperature is absolutely not one of the things that remains to be determined. It is known, and has been a known fact since the 19th century. Later, quantum mechanics told us why this is so; certain wavelengths correspond to heat, and carbon dioxide refuses to emit wavelength at a significant portion of the wavelengths corresponding to heat, ergo, carbon dioxide traps heat.
Within the special topic "tropical storms" for example the open question is not "will there be more?" The open question on that sub-topic is, "will there be more in number, more events or only more in intensity?" The available data suggest there will be more in intensity, but the same or slightly fewer in number. But the Law of Conservation of Energy, combined with what we know beyond a shadow of a doubt about carbon dioxide do not leave open any question that there will be "more."
CO2 = more thermal energy, simple as that. There will be more thermal energy on Earth because of higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, absolutely without any ambiguity. Only some second- and higher-order effects are open questions, and the answers to those questions don't truly matter to policy because whatever the answer to those open questions, the outcomes are all bad. Very, very bad, like whether mass starvation or the resulting mass violence will kill you, or if you live in the northern half of Western Europe, maybe you'll "get lucky" and freeze to death instead due to interruptions of the North Atlantic current from the melting of Greenland, and from what I've read that's not likely for tens of thousands of years, regardless of what we do to the atmosphere.
The only option that is not mass suicide is solar and wind energy all around ASAP. Sorry, no, I am not exaggerating. The science is settled.