Comment How can it be more then noise? (Score 2) 23
I can't see how the trend continues.
Any given small slice of the economy can certainly become disjointed from the macro trend for a time, right now LLMs and ML are burning tons of compute resources and industry is having to scale to support it; but once they do its hard to see the trend doing anything other than leveling off again.
Compute isn't a final product its a process tool, you can't eat it, you can't live under it, its not entertaining. Even to the extent something like video game uses compute, its the art work, and the algorithms to animate and play out the game that is the real product the compute used to execute it is just a means to an end. The amount to compute used can't really grow in excess of GDP except by cannibalizing other areas of the economy (reduced labor, replacing mechanical processes with electronic ones etc).
Compute is getting constantly more dense; you can do more in less space.
GDP growth is slowing, and projected to remain lower than in times past.
Just like thru the 80s and 90s we saw explosive growth, as office automation, CNC manufacturing, electronic communications, etc transformed the market, and then hit the wall around 2001 when everyone figured out we'd mostly found the limits of what technology enabled, sure it got faster, more polished, the cat videos became higher res, but until a new wave of miniaturization came long the
Well its boom time again and it will last for some stretch of time until the obvious applications for server-side LLMs and other ML are mostly exploited. What all that looks like and how precisely long it will last I am not going to guess. However there are limits, and the probably will be found in the coming decade. The IT market will stall again until some growth in efficiencies enables GTP5 competitive tech outside expensive climate controlled spaces on specialized hardware.