Submission + - climate modeller wins $10,000 wager against Solar physicists. 3
Layzej writes: Back in 2005, solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev made a $10,000 bet that global temperatures, driven primarily by changes in the Sun's activity, would fall over the next decade. The bet would compare the then record hot years between 1998 to 2003 with that between between 2012 and 2017. With temperatures falling from their peak during the 1998 super El-Nino, and solar output continuing to fall, this seemed like a sure bet. The results are now in and all datasets show that climate modeler James Annan is the clear winner.
At the time of the wager, Annan had supposed that the reputation of the scientists involved would be enough to ensure payment once the bet was settled. Unfortunately, as was the case with Alfred Russel Wallace's famous 1870 bet against flat-Earthers, the losing parties have refused to pay up.
At the time of the wager, Annan had supposed that the reputation of the scientists involved would be enough to ensure payment once the bet was settled. Unfortunately, as was the case with Alfred Russel Wallace's famous 1870 bet against flat-Earthers, the losing parties have refused to pay up.
Why he won't pay... (Score:2)
There is a Russian-language article here: https://www.chel.kp.ru/daily/2... [chel.kp.ru] which quotes Bashkirtsev as saying that he originally wanted to hold till 2025, but then scaled it back to 2018 out of concern he might not live long enough (he is 76 now); now, he goes on, while he lost the actual bet, warming shows all signs of slowing down and it therefore would make more sense to wait till 2025 to settle, by which time he would have "no moral ground not to honor the bet".
from a comment at: https://www.blogger. [blogger.com]
in Wikipedia list of notable scientific wagers (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)