Nolan Bushnell Disappointed With PS3

An anonymous reader writes "Atari founder Nolan Bushnell points out that PS and PS2 got lucky with their release, 'It wasn't anything brilliant that they did. With the PS and PS2 it was timing. They had the right pricing at the right time [and were] almost the accidental winner.' But he sees things differently this time around. 'It would not surprise me if a year from now they'll be struggling to sell 1 million units.'" I find that kind of hard to believe, but he raises some more salient points in the other parts of the article.

1 Million In A Year?

[JordanL]

They have almost half of that sold in pre-orders/campers already...

Is this guy like the Dvorak of video games or something?

Re:Reliable Opinion?

[ClosedSource]

"And the 2600 was definitely an instance of nothing but good timing"

As a former 2600 game programmer I disagree. It was the brilliant low-cost, deeply flexible design of the 2600 that kept it dominant when there were plenty of competitors around.

Re:Meta-Criticism

[PaulMorel]

I would think that the PS's success is due to the kind of games they had and relationships Sony made with developers/publishers.

Right, and the reason they were able to craft these relationships was that they had the biggest installed user base. Bushnell wisely points out that even if Sony's current production estimates are accurate, and they instantly sell every one that they ship (highly unlikely), then they won't be the market leader until mid 2007. That's assuming that Microsoft doesn't sell a single other 360.

Assuming that 360 sales continue to at the pace they are at now (an underestimate, to be sure), then we're looking at January 2008ish as the earliest that Sony can feasibly be the market leader.

So, for developers to cling to Sony like they did with the PS1 and PS2, they will need to take a pretty big leap of faith that MS is going to stumble and Sony is going to surge. Bushnell sees how unlikely this outcome is, hence his prediction.

I think that if you change his number to 2 million, then it will be an accurate estimate.

Re:Meta-Criticism

[AKAImBatman]

He runs Atari Games, still one of the biggest arcade manufacturers in the industry as well as a company who makes system games

I don't think so... [wikipedia.org]

He also is the developer and owner of a new line of upscale Dave and Busters type adult arcades.

I still don't think so... [wikipedia.org]

He knows the market who is going to be buying the PS3. They are the people who buy his games.

Nobody buys his games anymore. [wikipedia.org] They just play them.

The real answer is that through the years Mr. Bushnell has founded over a dozen companies related to video games. In most cases, he was quite successful. Just because he no longer develops for the mainstream console market doesn't mean that his opinion is worthless.

Misleading article title...

[pdboddy]

From reading the article, Bushnell is forecasting that Sony will not do well with the PS3. He's not dissing the machine itself, he's dissing Sony's marketing scheme and price point. No mention of him being "disappointed" by the PS3 at all.