NFLFan's Journal: NFL 2006: Super Bowl

I like the Colts. I had to get that out right away. I don't know if the Super Bowl can match, let alone exceed, the games from the conference championships.
The Bears just playing an awesome style of defense, tearing the Saints apart (and the television audience being tortured by Joe Buck and Troy Aikman). I got sort of sleepy hearing about that whole dome team winning in the cold is a hoax, the Bears were just more ready to play and so on. I think at least one of those fumbles was related to the weather.

And then there was the Patriots, they jumped out to a quick 18 point lead that re-assured everybody, and frustrated many, that things were the same. Only that was the first half! The second half had the greatest coach ever along with the greatest big game quarterback ever giving away that 18 point lead!!! Yes that is a record. Don't look now but the Patriots have not beaten the Colts in 2 solid years and Brady v. Manning in the playoffs has comedown to home field advantage. So maybe, the Patriots cannot beat the Colts anymore!!!

So why do I like the Colts? Well, everybody knows what Indianapolis did to Baltimore. While Chicago has a very good defense, and they are very good, but they are more simple and less scary than the defense the Ravens were fielding at the end of the year. The Bears is not the kind of team that gives the Colts problems. Peyton Manning understands the 4-3 defense better than any other quarterback alive. The only thing that is bothering me is that these teams have had 2 weeks off to think about things and only practice. I want to think that the layoff will hurt the more physical Bears more but I keep having flashbacks to the Steelers beating up the Colts early after the Colts had that 2 week off last year.

So come Sunday, sit back and enjoy the game.

yeah yeah yeah...

[Em Emalb]

The Colts will probably win, but as I said in my entry about the Bears, if they can do those three things, I think they have a very very good chance of pulling out the upset.

I am definitely rooting for my Bears, obviously, but I honestly wouldn't mind just a good game, you know?

All this hype for a blowout would make me sick....

What I'm hoping the final score is:

Bears 24, Colts 21

What the final score will probably be:

Bears 17, Colts 35

Re:

[RailGunner]

These same experts predicted an Ohio State blowout of Florida, too. OK, so did I, but as an admittedly biased Buckeye fan I'm allowed to.


I'm going to pick Bears 20, Colts 17.

WSJ today predicted a Bears victory

[RevMike]

Look at page W4.

In the last 22 superbowls, the team with the better defense as measured by points allowed has won 18 times. The 105 point differential is extremely large, BTW.

Since the 16 game schedule in 1978, only three superbowl winners have allowed more than 300 points, the 83 Raiders (338), the 98 Broncos (309), and the 80 Raiders (306). The Colts allowed 360 points.

The Pythagorean Win ratio has predicted the outcome 18 times in the last 22 years. The Bears rate 12.36 P-wins compared to 9.59 P

Re:

[FortKnox]

Keep in mind that Indy matches more like St Louis did when they won in terms of how the team is built...

Honestly, if the Indy defense can make Tom Brady have a pretty poor game (mostly dink-and-dunk with a pick), then they will tear Rex Grossman apart. I wouldn't want to face Peyton Manning when he's had 2 weeks to prepare. The only chance the Bears have is to come out with a big (14-21 point) lead. Then they can force indy into a slow game.... but Peyton has won slow games the last few games, too....

Re:

[Em Emalb]

(Berman voice) ...and THAT'S why they play the game...(/Berman voice)

Re:

[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

Theory v Reality

[Shadow Wrought]

In theory, the Bears have hardly any chance against the Colts, even keeping in mind the statistics that RevMike quotes, Peyton has picked apart more fearsome defenses this year and Grossman continues to be a rollercoaster of a QB. It wasn't until the 2nd half against the Saints that he actually played well.

So, rationally, I think the Colts win. And yet... theres this little hunch I have that the Bears are going to win a close one. So I am torn in my prediction.