Here are my Apple predictions.
- The iPhone will do quite well. There WILL be lines at 6pm on 6/29. (I'm going to the mall that day to see for myself and will post links to pics/vids in the comments below.*)
- Once the iPhone is out, we'll see some more hardware updates, probably starting in August or September. So far this year all we've seen are slightly faster MacBooks, a move to Santa Rosa in the MacBook Pro, and the addition of an eight-way Mac Pro. Except for the 8-way, the Mac Pro line hasn't changed since its introduction almost a year ago. The Mac Mini is also very overdue for an update--it is overpriced and underpowered, and since I've got a G4 Mini that I want to upgrade--but won't at the current price--I hope Apple doesn't let this line languish.
- There will NOT be a touchscreen iPod until after Christmas AT THE EARLIEST.** Yes, it's a nice technology. Yes, Apple can and will release one eventually--hell, they could have released one ALREADY if they wanted to, right? I mean, what's easier to make: and iPod or an iPod/phone/Internet thingie? DUH. They KNOW they can. They KNOW people want them. But they DON'T want them to cut into iPhone sales. I bet they won't even release 100/120 GB iPods until then, or change the Shuffle or Nano lines. January at the ABSOLUTE EARLIEST; maybe in time for Valentine's day (like they did with the introduction of the colored Shuffle this year), otherwise wait for Spring or Summer.
- Similarly, the iPhone WON'T get minor revs (higher capacity, lower price) until after Christmas. Major revs, like the ability to use faster-than-EDGE cellular data networks, won't arrive for 9-15 months. Some improvements could be handled just in software updates--the ability to use native IM, or send MMS***, or record video with the built-in camera****--but given the recent debacle over the $1.99 802.11N update, I'm not sure which of these Apple could/would roll out for free. If they don't come free in a software update, look for them in iPhone 2.0, Spring/Summer 2008. Faster networking WILL be in the next major rev of the iPhone.
- As I've said, I have no plans to get an iPhone any time soon. I predict they'll be $249 by mid-2009, at which time I'll buy. Unless my current cell phone dies--then I *might* buy one. But probably not even then. Long story short: as cool as the iPhone is, it doesn't do anything I *need*, or even really *want,* outside of the usual hey-that's-a-neat-feature. (Google maps! Cool! Too bad I don't ever go anywhere but back and forth between my house and my two jobs.) I like my current phone, and it's smaller than the iPhone is or ever will be, and *that's* really important to me. (I don't carry a PDA, because I hate carrying big, heavy crap, and my iPod only gets used in my car.) The only thing I'd like would be a better (~1MP) camera--mine only does 320x240. The introduction of true GPS might also push me to buy one--that's one device I *do* want (I've got one, but with a tiny B/W screen) and would be willing to carry.
* I plan to NOT edit this document so the time/date stamp won't change. Any updates will be in the comments below.
** excuse the caps. Too lazy to add bold/ital tags.
*** For those that don't know, the iPhone can do SMS, and it can send pics with email, but it can't send pics with SMS (pics+SMS=MMS)
**** too bad it can't do video. With the YouTube partnership, I'd think that the ability to shoot video and upload it to YouTube directly from the iPhone would be a great feature.