pudge's Journal: Polls

Just in case you may wonder why I hate and distrust polls, read this classic from October 1998. It's my favorite example -- I may have mentioned it before -- of poor polling.

It's two years before the Presidential election and the first question is "who would you vote for, Bush or Gore?" The next two questions are "which Democrat/Republican do you prefer?" So they have already not only picked who they think are the frontrunners, two years before the election, but they say that up front, therefore predisposing respondents to pick those candidates in the later questions.

And this isn't some rinky-dink polling outfit, it's Gallup. (OK, maybe it is a rinky-dink polling outfit.)

Social Science Barbie says: Polling is HARD!

averaged polls are amazingly predictive

[brewthatistrue]

Most polls are worthless taken alone, but when averaged they seem to be fairly accurate.

see
september 2006: what averaged polls say about the 2006 senate race [blogspot.com]
october 2006: what past elections suggest about our upcoming election [blogspot.com]
november 2006: averaged polls are amazingly predictive [blogspot.com]

Re:

[pudge]

It depends on the polls and the subject and the methodology.