Comment Re:We need humility, not arrogance (Score 1) 110
Within 30 years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman inteligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. Is such progress avoidable?"
Let's see..1993 + 30 = 2023. A few months after ChatGPT 3.5 was released! A funny coincidence (or not?), and nobody would claim that ChatGPT is superhuman, but Vinge was on point.
I enjoyed his books very much, but no he was not on point. He claimed we'd have the means to create superhuman intelligence before now, and you have just admitted that nobody would claim that has been achieved, 3 years after he claimed it could happen, and despite billions being spent to attempt it. So no, that was just another religious opinion unsupported by science, and you showed here that you have enough information to know that yet still somehow didn't get it.
You frequently accuse those you disagree with of magical thinking. IMHO, the real magical thinking is the belief that human-type intelligence is unique and can never be replicated, simulated, or surpassed.
That is also magical thinking, but no more so than the idea that by throwing circuits with complexity similar to that which we have discovered in the human brain so far, we will inevitably create consciousness. That is not just wishful thinking, it's clueless. We keep finding more complexity in the brain, so it's still a moving target which is enough to defeat such an argument on its own, and transistors are not neurons which is also enough to prove it's a folly.