Comment one step forward (Score 1) 67
I don't think that Desktop Linux is going to take over as a result of these things, but I am seeing SOME small movement for people that went looking as soon as the ads started showing up in Windows. A lot of these went to Mac, but a not-insignificant number jumped to Linux on their existing hardware. Not earth-moving numbers, but it's one step closer to a threshold where Windows loses it's 'defacto' status.
Plenty of time for Microsoft to adjust for sure, but I think the ads are enough to turn more serious buyers away or have them consider alternatives. We've already seen a ~5% of market gain for MAC and 2% for linux (which is about a 50% increase on Mac and a 100% increase on Linux) in the last 10 years. If you remove the 'value' end of the market these numbers are more substantial.
Windows is still king and will be for quite some time, but there is some threshold number where the operating system is irrelevant. When we hit that point, and some major players like Adobe make Linux a first-class target, and if game devs make Linux first-class then the dominos will fall.
I suspect the new xbox licensing model is an attempt by Microsoft to keep gaming tied to Windows.