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Comment Re:The movie practically writes itself (Score 2) 21

It does write itself.

Soldier in trench on the frontlines in Eastern Poland. Incoming artillery rounds thud closer and closer. The an alarm for an incoming drown swarm headed for his sector. He quickly begins to configure countermeasures, and ....

A "Hey soldier, would you like to meet women over 40 in your area?" ad pops up. Unable to find the close pop-up X in time he perishes.

BTW so nice that there is continuity in the graft of DOD procurement. Different names, but the scam still remains the same.

Comment Re:Turn up the air conditioning, leave the door op (Score 1) 96

I think we should go one step better and work to lower the human population. Not "Moonraker" style, but rather the tried and true family planning and financial incentives. This of course requires social change, primarily in moving away from the pyramid-scheme of economic growth based on popping out new consumers. And frequently (positive) societal change is harder than engineering or chemistry. Certainly less sexy than sleek techno-solving problems.

With 2025 technology and a 1990 world population this planet would be quite nice, very livable, and sustainable.

Comment Re:Prior art (Score 1) 40

Admittedly I am not deeply knowledgeable on this. While they are not issuing debt like corporate bond style debt, they are still borrowing this money. I's not coming from current revenue or capital they have amassed, rather it is in the form of agreements with other companies. Reminds me of 'swap' derivatives used by financial institutions, hedge funds, etc.

So for example, NVIDA lends Oracle $100 billion in GPUs, then Oracle lends OpenAI $100 billion in data center space, then OpenAI lends NVIDA $100 billion in compute. Pretty well balanced unless/until the value of any one of these falls.
-If the market turns to smaller, cheaper chips then the $100 billion of NVIDA drops and upsets the balance.
-If other models turn out to be more popular, cheaper than Chat GPT the value of compute drops and upsets the balance.
-If capacity if data centers starts outstripping demand, the value of Oracle declines and you get the picture.

any of the above scenarios can be rebutted, no question. The issue is that these of these have to stay more or less in balance or things can start to unwind. We've seen it again and again in the financial world (e.g mortgages/CMO's) , and really this current AI investing is just financial deal making clothed in "Tech"

Comment Prior art (Score 3, Informative) 40

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

"The telecommunications industry had experienced significant growth and investment during the 1990s, fueled by the expansion of the internet and the introduction of wireless technology. Companies such as WorldCom, Global Crossing, and Lucent Technologies had achieved enormous market valuations based on expectations of continued growth and profitability.[1] By the late 1990s, the industry had become overvalued and highly leveraged. Many companies had taken on substantial debt to finance their expansion, and investors had poured billions of dollars into the sector based on unrealistic expectations of growth and profitability.[2][3]

"... in the five years after the Telecommunications Act of 1996 went into effect, telecommunications companies invested more than $500 billion, mostly financed with debt, into laying fiber optic cable, adding new switches, and building wireless networks."

Comment Totally a lie. (Score 5, Insightful) 53

Forget about debating the merits of college, fancy or otherwise. But without having a "Graduated from College" on your CV / LinkedIn profile you will not progress through the job application process in 2025. Your CV will be dead on arrival. Including , I feel quite certain, at this guy's own company(!). His comment is not based on any current, existing, reality.

Really should have a filter to block out any /. article that has "CEO" in the title..

Comment This is what you get for $2 billion (Score 1) 33

"Thinking Machines Lab, founded by Mira Murati, has successfully closed a $2 billion seed round at a $10 billion valuation."

And all you get is some secret sauce API...? How many firms will need this....what fraction will pay for it? Sure they might be working on other products to sell, but hard to believe that this firm is going to recoup $2 billion in revenue...let alone net revenue in the before proton decay.

More likely this is a(nother) SV pyramid scheme to keep money slushing around within a small group of "in the know" founders and VC's.

Pedigree of the CEO
-Product Manager at Tesla for Model X 2013-2015. Arguably the worst Tesla model
-Leap Motion (now Ultraleap). VP of Product and Engineering 2016-2018 VP at age 28, good on you. Leap Motion total failure
-Open AI VP then to CTO 2019-2022 hockey stick career trajectory...again good on you. Failed putsch on Altman and she was sent packing

“Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them”

Comment Re:What... (Score 2) 221

And the list of comments will likely break down into only binary options. Either full on free market healthcare is the only way to go, or full on Swedish/socialist government healthcare is the way to go. If we can move past the "isms" there are plenty of ways to develop a system which is better than the existing options.

I will also add that being in this space, there are very few honest brokers. Health insurers (Anthem, BCBS, UHC) are easily identifiable as terrible. But these hospital chains, including the nice sounding ones like Sloan Cancer, etc are right up there on the list of bad actors. Now throw in pharmaceutica (Rx) l manufacturers, RX wholesalers (Amerisource, McKesson, etc) , PBM's (Optum, etc) IT-IS-A-DISASTER.

Maybe your GP or local specialist can still be considered a good guy/woman But that's about it. It is nuts that we put up with it in 2025

Comment Re:And so is every US state government (Score 2) 27

I saw this stat not too long ago....Americans spend ~$100 billion on scratch-off lottery tickets in 2024....Just on scratch off tickets. By comparison something like $9 billion on movie tickets, maybe $19 billion on football ticks and merch, $58 billion on video games.

All that money spent on pointless, scratch offs. Now add legal sports betting, national lottery stuff, illegal betting, etc . I am very happy the gambling gene skipped me.

Comment AI's greatest value thus far (Score 1) 32

...is that of giving feckless executives excuses to cut headcount to boost stock price a bit and therefore their own income. To be clear, firms shouldn't just stack themselves with warm bodies for no reason, but there is -0- indication that AI is contributing anything today except for meeting summaries and some coding "auto-completes". Are these excess so prescient they know how AI is going to unfold? It's bollocks.

Or maybe wait until the AI is implemented and working as advertised and then start laying people off.

The $800 billion and +1.5 C increase in global temperature is totally worth it, so the C-suite can sleep at night knowing it was not their avarice, but "AI"

Comment Re:Dragon Naturally Speaking (Score 1) 77

"The jury cleared Goldman Sachs of all charges."

This is why I think people (including myself) perceive the system as somewhat rigged. An international corporation, with 100,000's of employees, in business for decades, with experts in their fields (whom they advertise) get hoodwinked by Jane Doe. Not only that, there apparently isn't much in the way of due diligence. Whether it's HP & Autonomy, or a bunch if VC's & Theranos, or now JP Morgan Chase & this woman...the hammer falls hard on the little guy/gal

But, when the mega-corps perpetrate their own fraud, as described in the linked story, or the mortgage crisis, or any number of a 1000 other cases, the penalties are small, monetary fines. No executives or others held accountable. The best I can come up with in recent memory is VW emissions cheating (2015) and then I have to go back to Enron (2001).

Comment Re:Part of the problem (Score 2) 213

I would add that the academic community writ large is suffering from self-imposed wounds around the 'publish or perish' model of the past. The 'Sciences' both physical and social need to get their house in order. Not because they are inherently wrong, or not useful, etc, but because the world has changed and they have not.

IMHO they need to revisit peer-review...not throw it out, but double down. Make the peer review process more legitimate, involve more people as a regular part of their academic jobs. Instead of cranking out a few meh papers, how about one decent paper and then quality time spent reviewing 2-4 other papers...more eyes more comments***. Legit experiments for grad students should be replicating other experimental work...even if the same experiment is done 5 times by different groups. That should count and be meaningful for the academic hierarchy.

And I love new weird theories of the universe. Put the proponents need to be clear about the relative speculative nature of wacky proposals. Not to steal Habines gimmick, but without experimental, repeatable proof, everything starts at a 2 on the BS meter. Don't take it personally

***Harder than it seems. PR's for dev work is also typically pretty lack luster...there is not much praise or career enhancement for being detailed oriented on a colleagues work. But it should be.

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