Comment Re:Color me skeptical, (Score 1) 147
Three years of launches, and they have yet to complete an orbit.
It's too bad you lead with this bullshit. Purposely putting their giant rocket within a fart of reaching a stable orbit is a demonstration of exquisite control, not failure. There's absolutely no reason they won't be "reaching orbit" whenever they like next year.
Rendezvous is tricky, but they already do it all the time, and with much higher stakes. Orbital fuel transfer has been done (including by SpaceX IIRC), doing it again with Starship wouldn't really be too surprising. I would be surprised if they have a finished version of a fuel depot a year from now, but not so much if they stick a stripped down Starship up there to practice on.
I'd be really surprised if they fulfill their HLS contract next year, but I'll also be surprised if they don't beat Blue Origin, Lockheed and Boeing, and with a much more capable lander at a lower cost. Artemis looks like it's been watered down into another flag planting mission, but maybe SpaceX will be able to sell lunar transport to somebody who actually wants to do something interesting. Blue Origin and Co definitely won't be.
Mars, whatever.