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Comment Re:State employees (Score 1) 258

Hypothetically just some wild numbers: You work 2 years, demand and receive a 20% raise. They cut the highest-paid in the next round of layoffs. You are unemployed for 1 year holding out for that salary level again. Employers won't hire you because you only last 2 years at a job, and haven't worked for 1 year. Your savings run out and you settle for a job working at 80% of your original salary.

Different regions have different values for the numbers above. Maybe on the west coast this can work in your favor. East coast is a little more conservative. Depends on the industry as well if longevity matters to the job role.

Comment Re:Your serious? (Score 1) 289

You won't laugh when Emergency responders can't take your call because they are all using competing and incompatible New Tech. If the industry can provide interoperability and stability for 10 or more years that would be fine. But they won't, so you need regulations to enforce commonality.

Comment Re:Seems overly optimistic (Score 1) 259

I didn't say my skills are all that great. But I know there is BS when big claims are made without solutions to the 'gotchas' and 'devil in the details' type issues. And there are more than just one or two issues to knock out of the way. So yes, I will be very excited to see what Elon comes up with; it _will_ be exciting if he supports his claims.

Comment Re: Seems overly optimistic (Score 1) 259

That's a damn good idea. I haven't heard anyone suggest that before. But technically not a driverless car - just a remote pilot service. Nonetheless, something that seems much more viable. Still doesn't resolve the liability tradeoffs the original poster suggested. i.e. who do you sue when the driving conditions require risky decisions for practical reasons, but yet an accident occurs.

Comment Re:Seems overly optimistic (Score 3, Informative) 259

Exactly this. For this reason, I've found it easy to be dismissive of Google's claims. They have hardly discussed situations like this, not to mention bad weather, construction, etc. Google tends to promise big potential, then drop projects, because, hey, 'failure is good.'
The problem with Elon's claims is that he has credibility. He has a history of doing exactly what he claims and persevering at it. So he is either putting his credibility at risk, or he has some ace up his sleeve to mitigate _all_ of the odd cases in the short term.
I will say, in the long run the driverless car will change the nature of roadways in one way or another to eliminate the situations described. You can't really predict how these things unfold, but the basic underlying premise will change. But that is measured in decades, not 2 years.

Comment Re:Autonomous ground vehicles (Score 1) 174

I assume what you mean is that the measurements required to compare a human driver vs. an autonomous vehicle's level of safety is not a simple one-dimensional characteristic.

You could reduce it to simply mean time between failure. Failure defined as loss of property or life. Secondarily, failure can also include "taking a bad turn and getting stuck in a ditch waiting for a tow truck."

It would also be important to separately measure availability "percentage of requested trips that arrive within a nominal time." Traffic conditions obviously should not be a detractor. But a failure to operate as well as a human in adverse conditions would be a negative.

But I would agree that is neglecting a lot of practical situations that are basically swept under the carpet in these predictions of "driverless cars in x years."
Even if statistically they are a success, I would not be pleased that the car simply refuses to operate in icy conditions. Or perhaps a class of failures only affects a small population, or locale, so they don't become significant to the whole overall figures. But to those people or that area of operation, driverless cars will not be a reality.

Comment Re:High quantity manufacturing not more cost than (Score 1) 211

If you are using a low-volume, low setup-cost process like CNC or 3D-printing, then you have to consider the higher cost per unit (marginal cost) due to the time spent on the machine. You are paying rent on that expensive machine, and the time your parts take to build are directly correlated to that. Divide your engineering costs and other fixed costs over that small number, and you have a really expensive product.

Buying 30 parallel setups (or even renting them) becomes prohibitive very quickly (how many machines can you buy, or rent time on, who will operate them?)

A high-volume process has high tooling charges (molds, die cutters, etc.) for faster processing times (less time renting the machine per part.) But it will never be more expensive in the long-run unless there is something very peculiar about the geometry of the part being made. If that is the case, you have a problem and should reconsider what you are designing and/or doing overall.

Considering the expected volumes, this should have been considered from day 1. If the break-even on this was beyond a few hundred units, then something is very wrong and it was doomed from the start.

Comment Re:Who Exactly Gets To View a Company's Code? (Score 1) 126

I'd like to make sure there is professionalism and safety is a priority in BOTH places. Code review is just one aspect.
Industry is probably further ahead than you imagine, look up SIL.

Open-source just isn't going to happen in auto or industry. The only people who will spend time looking at it will be the competition (who would love to see your product fail), or students who have spare time but no frame of reference. Neither is a comprehensive means of reviewing code in the proper context.

An independent (and closed-source) code review should be a part of some industries. But it has to be conducted according to those specific industry norms and testing specifications. That takes years of experience and typically a committee of professionals from that industry to define.

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