I don't think that means what you think it means.
First problem, the gambler's fallacy refers to a mistaken belief that a random process that has locally shifted away from its mean somehow "owes" the universe a return to its mean. After a long losing streak, the gambler erroneously believes he has a better chance of a win.
Second, for the gambler's fallacy to apply, you need an independent
random process. Specifically, if the randomness in question has a history to it, the gambler's fallacy doesn't apply as a fallacy - The deck of cards with all the non-face cards played out really does
"owe" you a 20 or a blackjack (Hmm, do aces count as face cards? Whatever - You get the point).
In this case, you want something more like confirmation bias
or a sunk cost
fallacy - Though neither of those quite properly applies to what I described, because I haven't ignored evidence contrary to my opinion (quite the opposite, I've weighed it heavily
), and I haven't needed to keep pumping more money into my BTC position to keep it afloat (again, contrary to that, I've steadily syphoned money out
and what remains just keeps going up in value).
It's a zero sum game, their gain will be matched by the losses of ordinary punters like you.
You have the first clause right, though you use it as though you don't realize that makes it 2.5% per year better
than USD, which systematically loses
value over time.
As for the second half of that - If BTC entirely collapsed tomorrow, I've already done better than break even on my original investment. Except, haters like you don't seem to get that my "investment" consists of having fun
(and $50 in electricity, but hell, I've paid more for a single concert ticket). I got to play a part in the success of the first viable non-commodity non-government currency. I got to learn OpenCL as a result of tweaking miners to squeeze every possible hash out of my GPU. I got to watch my "just for laughs" investment turn into the price of a new car (if I hadn't slowly spent most of what I had over time) - And no, I don't
regret spending it at $4/BTC, at $30/BTC, at $200/BTC, because I got involved for the idea
, not because I someday hoped to get rich fleecing morons out of their dollars in exchange for worthless ($0.10 each, when I started) bits in a shared transaction record.