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Comment Re:what happens (Score 1) 95

For example the city I'm in, if you make your house two stories (the maximum, by the way) the required setbacks triple in size so your house won't be any bigger.

Yeah, your definition of "mega-mansion" definitely is a starter house. My parents' home was two stories plus a basement. I can think of plenty of three-story houses that aren't even remotely mansions (e.g. row houses in San Francisco).

Penalizing people for using space efficiently by building up just leads to more suburban sprawl and lower housing density. It's the opposite of what any sane urban planner would recommend.

Comment Re:what happens (Score 0) 95

When someone builds a mega-mansion on your street, it makes the street less appealing as a whole and it makes your house look less attractive by comparison.

I would argue that having newer houses in your neighborhood is a sign that your neighbors probably aren't crackheads, so it should make your house look more attractive by comparison. The only time that might not be true is when the nicer house is also for sale at the same time yours is.

Also, those "mega-mansions" (which, based on having known a bunch of people who use phrases like that, are probably what we used to call a starter home back where I grew up) mean higher property taxes, which means better schools, which also increase the value of your property.

Comment Re:EV sales in *USA* plummet (Score 1) 289

Where I grew up, a town of about 10,000 people, the total extent of "public transit" was a van service that served the elderly and disabled.

That's called public transit assuming anyone can use it, which is the way it works most places. If you mean scheduled bus service, then yes that is more limited in both suburbs and rural areas where it exists at all.

Wow. I looked it up, and today I learned that it actually is available to non-seniors. I'm kind of surprised. Of course, the median wait time is measured in significant fractions of an hour, so even the elderly prefer to get rides from other people when they can. Either way, there's no advantage to a van that drives around and picks up one or two people at a time and takes them to their destination compared with a private car (and actually a huge disadvantage from a fuel economy perspective). It's just a glorified Über service, but with the most fuel-inefficient vehicles on the road.

I'm talking about small town USA.

One of the firm criteria of our choosing our house was that it be within walking distance of work and a grocery store. We didn't even look at houses that didn't meet that criteria. Did that mean we couldn't have five acre spread in the woods? Yes. Did it mean we couldn't live on a lake? Yes, we couldn't afford lake front property that met that criteria. What I am talking about is what is real, not your imaginary small town.

My actual small town that I lived in until I was 22 currently has almost no houses within a twenty minute walk of any of the grocery stores. Maybe a few of the houses closest to the front of one of the wealthiest neighborhoods are close enough to Walmart. E.W. James (oops, that apparently just became a Save-A-Lot) is on a highway with almost no houses for probably a mile. Ruler Foods is within a mile of maybe a half dozen houses.

The Big Star store that went under in the 1980s (IIRC) was within walking distance of maybe a dozen mostly low-income houses, plus some university married student apartments, and *barely* within walking distance of some of the other university housing, but that has been gone for decades. The old E.W.'s was within walking distance of maybe low-double-digit houses before it moved across town in the late 1990s to where Ruler is now, and then again to its current location. IGA was also kind of near some houses, but again, that closed in the 80s or 90s when all the businesses moved to the west side of town to be near Walmart after it moved.

But even if you distributed them as evenly as you could, with only three real grocery stores, you'd still only have maybe 10% to 15% of residents within a reasonable walking distance of a grocery store. At 850 people per square mile, you just can't sustain a lot of grocery stores. And that's before you factor in all the people out in the country. For that matter, my current city has trouble keeping more than about three grocery stores in business at anything approaching *bikeable* distances even with 7k people per square mile. The economies of scale just lend themselves to a smaller number of larger grocery stores, rather than a larger number of smaller stores.

trying to eliminate cars can't work in rural areas,

I agree and lowering the speed limit doesn't eliminate cars. It reduces their emissions immediately instead of waiting 20 or 30 or 40 years when the only cars on the road are electric.

Except that this isn't true. Yes, above a certain speed, you rapidly lose energy from wind resistance. But at lower speeds, you're not getting the maximum advantage of higher gears. That's why most cars are more efficient at 55 to 60 MPH than at 40 MPH. So lowering the maximum speed will NOT necessarily reduce emissions.

Here's a graph of a few vehicles' efficiency versus speed. Going significantly over 60 MPH usually results in a significant reduction in efficiency. Below that, though, you're just as likely to make emissions worse by slowing people down as you are to make it better. It depends entirely on what speeds just happen to be at the sweet spot in the torque curve of a particular engine with a particular gear ratio. You really can't fix the environment with that approach. All you'll do is make people late all the time.

Comment Re:The supply chain problems are real (Score 1, Interesting) 116

And that's before the uncertainty around rare Earth minerals which are absolutely critical to the battery in that EV.

Nit: To the best of my knowledge, there are no rare earth minerals in EV batteries. They are, however, used in a lot of EV *motors*. Lithium, cobalt, manganese, iron, etc. are anything but rare.

Folks have not really fully grasped just how much of a fuck up electing Donald Trump was and is. I think the scale of the fuck up is a little bit too large for most people to comprehend. Trump has done as much damage in 10 months as a Republican president usually does in 8 years. We also did not get the usual 8 years of Democrats fixing the previous Republicans disastrous policies.

The full extent of the damage will take years to fully appreciate. That's half the reason people like him get elected. By the time the full extent of the damage is know, you're two presidential cycles later or even three.

Given all the uncertainty and the loss of the 7500 tax credit yeah there is no way in hell anyone can sell EVS profitable unless they're using slave labor to build them like China does.

It's really not *that* bad. They just have to sell them for more money. The tax credit doesn't magically make them unprofitable unless they haven't paid off the R&D costs. Otherwise, it just reduces their sales volume or forces them to take a lower profit per unit to keep the volume up.

Meanwhile Tesla is about to give Elon Musk 1 trillion with a t dollars. It's not just more money than the company has ever made it's more money than the company ever can make. It took them 20 years and constant government subsidies to make 43 billion in profit. To pay Elon Musk will take 200 years.

It's stock. It's funny money.

For any other company the stock price would be cratering right now as people sell out as fast as they can but so many people bought in when Tesla was already overvalued that nobody wants to be the one that pulled the trigger and start the downward spiral. Everyone is hoping to get out and give it over to a greater fool. So it's a Mexican standoff.

Not at all true. The numbers are kind of nuts, but they are also tied to growth targets, so if Tesla doesn't grow, he doesn't get anything. It doesn't really devalue the shares, and this style of compensation scheme is pretty typical, though again, I won't argue that the numbers seem questionably high.

The whole electric car market is poised to collapse. China might keep it going thanks to the aforementioned slave labor but without that there's nothing to sustain it anymore.

It already did, at least in the U.S. As soon as the tax credit expired, buying cratered. The company most likely to weather this is Tesla. Tesla already lost their tax credits, and their sales didn't crater before, so they probably won't crater this time, either.

But the rest of the industry? Dealers at the major car companies want to *avoid* selling EVs, because they don't get all that lucrative service business — oil changes and brake jobs and oxygen sensor replacements and so on. They have no incentive to sell EVs, and without tax credits to push people to choose EVs, sales dry up.

In other words, Ford ditching their electric trucks is *entirely* plausible. (I could maybe even see Tesla ditching the Cybertruck, because its sales suck for... let's just say design and implementation reasons.)

Comment Re:EV sales in *USA* plummet (Score 1) 289

School buses only work if you don't have after school activities

What are you talking about? I took a bus after school activities in the 1960's.

A *school* bus? Or a city bus? Because nowhere I've ever lived had school buses that took people home except at the end of the regular school day.

Public transit is provably not cost effective at rural densities.

That isn't actually true. There is all sorts of public transit serving rural areas. Whether its "cost effective" or not.

Where I grew up, a town of about 10,000 people, the total extent of "public transit" was a van service that served the elderly and disabled. Zero buses, zero *taxis*. You drove or you didn't get there. So I'm not sure what your definition of "rural" is, but it sure as h*** doesn't match up with the decades that I lived in a rural area.

There are places that you have to go, e.g. work, school. If the amount of time it takes is too long, it completely breaks your ability to function

No, you just have to make different choices. Which you are already making. You can't live in San Francisco and go to work every day in New York City and school in Los Angeles. Is a 45 minute commute acceptable? For some people yes, for some people no. I wouldn't live somewhere I had to drive to work.

WTF are you talking about? You're talking about huge cities here. I'm talking about small town USA. So unless your idea of "different choices" means not living in a rural area (and good luck finding food on your table if everyone did that), you really don't know what you're talking about.

you're still kind of missing the point, which is that not everybody lives in cities.

I think you are missing the point. Most people do live in cities because it is far more convenient. Its not realistic to demand the same convenience if you live a long way from other people.

Sure. But my point was that trying to eliminate cars can't work in rural areas, and doesn't work well even in suburbs. That first part is not solvable by moving everyone to cities, because we still require food, and you can't grow that in a dense urban areas, because there's not enough arable land. And people live in suburbs precisely because they don't like living in cities, so eliminating cars in suburbs isn't going to fly, either.

Comment Re:EV sales in *USA* plummet (Score 1) 289

I'm thinking about my rural hometown in west Tennessee, and imagining middle school kids biking to school for up to an hour each way

And I from personal observation see that many/most middle school kids have been taking the bus to school for at least the last 70 years. In fact, that is almost the only way kids in rural areas get to school. No imagination required.

School buses only work if you don't have after school activities. Band, sports, theater, etc. are all fundamentally incompatible with a carless society unless you have high enough density to warrant a proper city bus system. Same with AP classes before school.

Some people will do all those things just as they do today. But in fact a lot of people will reduce the range of places they shop, recreate and work because its too far to drive. Almost no one considers "too far" in terms of distance. Its "too far" in terms of how long it takes.

Potato, potahto. There are places that you have to go, e.g. work, school. If the amount of time it takes is too long, it completely breaks your ability to function. Whether the reason for it taking too long is because of distance or because somebody thought it would be fun to make cars go horribly slowly to convince you to bike for an hour is mostly an implementation detail.

There are plenty of people who regularly both walk and ride further than a couple blocks.

I bike two to three hours every Saturday and Sunday. But there's no way I'd be willing to accept an hour of biking each way as a minimum requirement to get to work or school. Life's too short, and I'd be too exhausted when I got there to do anything.

Most people don't actually travel "long distances" very often unless they have to. They arrange their lives to avoid it They move close to work and live where there are places to shop. That's why cities have more people than empty spaces.

True, but you're still kind of missing the point, which is that not everybody lives in cities. Public transit is provably not cost effective at rural densities.

Comment Re:EV sales in *USA* plummet (Score 1) 289

Try doing that in the US.

You can do that in a lot of places in Oregon because it created urban growth boundaries in the 1970's.

There's no magic cure. It would require razing down almost all of the entire country.

Sure there is. Just lower the speed limit to 45 on freeways, 20 in town and 10 on residential streets. People will shorten trips and use transit, walk and bike more. You don't need to "raze" anything. All the empty space in cities used for autos will be valuable and filled in.

Actually, what will happen is that people will move away from places that do this, or they will continue to drive, but more slowly, or they will ignore the speed limits and pay the tickets.

The only way to shorten trips is to increase density, and that can't just magically happen.

Walking and biking are fine if you are only a couple of blocks away from where you are going. They don't work for long distances. So they don't solve the problem, either.

You either have urban density or you don't. If you do, then cars don't work very well. If you don't, then alternatives don't work very well. There's a grey area in between where neither one works very well.

I'm thinking about my rural hometown in west Tennessee, and imagining middle school kids biking to school for up to an hour each way while carrying books, musical instruments, gym clothes, etc., and I'm laughing at how well your "magic cure" would work. It's the sort of thinking I'd expect from someone who has never lived somewhere with fewer than half a million people.

Comment Re:EV sales in *USA* plummet (Score 1) 289

+1. As soon as you get out of the core of Paris and its inner suburbs (Hauts-de-Seine), a lot of metro Paris is suburbia with zero-lot-line single-family houses.

Mind you, it's not "a hundred houses all alike" suburbia, because it was built up before folks started doing that sort of mass development, but it's still suburbs.

Comment Re:Comes with buying cloud based devices .... (Score 1) 10

Just got email yesterday from Belkin, to tell me Wemo devices including their hugely popular Wemo mini plug and Wemo wall switch, outdoor switch and 3-way switch were on a list to be shut down in January, 2026. They're yanking the cloud server support required to make them work, and saying the only thing they'll still do after that is work on a LOCAL network via HomeKit.

Bets about whether they stop working with HomeKit in February of 2026?

Comment Re:Case dependent [Re:So, the plan is ...] (Score 1) 76

Correct. But you missed the point. Weight is not the issue. Volume is not the issue. Cost is the issue. Fuel cells are expensive. Storage tanks are cheap. The longer your storage period, the more of the set-up is the cheap part rather than the expensive part.

In practice, storing energy for a longer period of time is basically never done, with the only real exception I can think of being space travel. And it's not how long the storage period is that matters. It's how quickly you need to get the energy when you're done. Sure, if you store a year worth of energy in a day and dribble it out over a year, a tiny fuel cell and a huge tank is great for cost. But literally space travel is the only practical application of that. For every real-world application other than space travel, you need to be able to dump the entire contents of the fuel cell in at most maybe five to ten times the period of time over which it was built up, if not less. That means either big fuel cells or a lot of fuel cells.

The trade off between batteries and fuel cells is case dependent, and more notably, it is technology dependent. I think I may agree with you that for for storage times of ~12 hours (from solar peak at noon to drop off of electrical usage around midnight) and for today's off-the-shelf technology fuel cells are not the answer, but "not the answer for this case" is not the same as "not the answer always."

See above. And to that, I would add that converting electricity to hydrogen with electrolysis of water and back is likely to result in a loss of somewhere around 60% to 70% of the energy that you put in. So even if you somehow manage to find some rare edge case (e.g. trying to do solar in Alaska or something similarly nuts) where you really do want to store power long-term and spread it out over a long period of time, the loss of energy is still going to be around 5x as high from fuel cells as lithium ion batteries even factoring in the self-discharge rate over several months.

And that's before you factor in the additional losses from having to pressurize the hydrogen, which adds further the losses. In fact, you'd actually be better off building air tanks and pressurizing them and using the air pressure to turn turbines than doing electrolysis, pressurizing hydrogen, and dumping it into a fuel cell. That will give you a loss of only 25% to 50% of the energy that goes in. Sure, it will take up more space, but you won't have hydrogen making the metal brittle after a few years, requiring you to replace the whole system over and over again, so it makes *way* more sense.

When I say that IMO, there is literally no case where hydrogen fuel cells make sense other than space travel, I mean that. It is utterly terrible efficiency-wise, so much so that almost anything is better, including things that are way simpler and cheaper than hydrogen, like a giant air tank and an air turbine.

Comment Re:So, the plan is ... (Score 1) 76

Hydrogen is not the answer. Hydrogen is the question. No is the answer. Always. For literally any purpose you could possibly come up with other than fusion.

I'm with you regarding hydrogen as energy capture. It should be noted however that hydrogen may be relevant to displacing fossil fuels in chemical applications, such as in making steel.

I would still expect it to be less efficient than electric arc furnaces, but maybe not, so I'll grant you that this might be a very narrow use case, solely because burning the fuel source is actually important for that. :-)

Comment Re:So, the plan is ... (Score 1) 76

Modern combined-cycle gas turbines are much more efficient than that. Most new installations now get around 60% efficiency if not better, and the current record is 64.18%, set by a Siemens turbine at Keadby Unit 2 Power Station in the UK. The end result won't be 68%, but it also won't be 34%.

60% efficiency times 68% is 40.8% efficiency. Yeah, that's slightly better than 34%, but in much the same way that a s**t sandwich is slightly better than s**t. :-)

And this will still be capable of running on natural gas, which probably means it won't be optimal efficiency-wise for either fuel.

Given the losses associated with electrolysis, the net is likely to be around 50%, which still makes it a bad idea.

The losses from electrolysis alone make it a bad idea, even if the next step were 100% efficient. It just gets worse from there.

Comment Re:So, the plan is ... (Score 1) 76

If you start with electricity then change to H2, after electrolysis + transportation/distribution, you end up with ~68% of your original starting energy at the site for usage.

Hmm, which is more, 94% or 68%?

You forgot that this is about gas turbines. They're going to BURN the hydrogen. Divide that 68% number by two, and that's still probably wildly optimistic. More realistic numbers are probably more like 20%.

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