Sorry, I thought the error was clear - you converted cubic metres to cubic kilometres incorrectly. I'll spell it out:

It should be 195.699 cubic kilometres of water, because there are 1000x1000x1000 cubic metres to a cubic kilometre, not 1000.

Thus, over 20 years this would be 3,913.97 cubic kilometers of water, and as the surface of the world's oceans is ~361,740,000 square kilometers, you would see a rise of 0.0000108198 km, or 10.81 mm.

We know exactly how much effect CO2 has on incoming and outgoing radiation, because we can measure it in the lab, and via satellite. We know beyond doubt that it allows broad-spectrum energy in, but blocks much of the Earth's black-body radiation from escaping again.

We have measured precisely how much CO2 is in the atmosphere, and we can calculate accurately how much effect it should have. That's how we know that CO2 is such a significant problem; see this page for empirical measurements, a discussion of the maths, and a graph of the Earth's radiative forcings (all with fully cited sources of course, which I recommend you follow up).

The effect of CO2 is unquestioned. What is still being debated is only how much does this affect us? At what rate will surface temperatures change as a result? This is complicated by the myriad feedback cycles involved in the climate system. Current scientific opinion varies between "this could be a real problem" to "if we don't do something ASAP we're in for a very unhappy time".

No, it really isn't. ICS lets a user connect to a PC and access the internet through that PC. The PC becomes an access point.

WiFi Sense lets your friends connect directly to your router, by securely sharing its details with them. Your PC doesn't even have to be on.

This is how it's possible for your friends to share those router details with their friends. Win10 doesn't know it's your router and not theirs, it will let anyone with the password enable WiFi Sense sharing.

Because if your friends can connect to your network, and they have WiFi Sense enabled, then access to your network is shared with all of their Facebook friends.

So you have no control over who now get access to your network. Is that clear enough yet?

And making sure nobody who has access to your wifi ever enables it either. Best of luck!

Every time you give a friend your password, you have to make certain they don't have their Wifi Sense option enabled, or the same situation arises. It's also possible for them to opt into Wifi Sense for your network details any time afterwards too, so you better remain on good terms with them.

There's a reason that Microsoft added the ludicrous option of opting out via your SSID - it's because there's simply no other way to be certain this doesn't happen to you.

The problem is, if I let any of my friends near my beer, they could easily end up inviting all their Facebook friends to whizz in my ale. And the only way to scare them off is to write "_OPTOUT" in large letters on my favourite beer mug.

Here's the thing: You can leave your box unchecked - but if ANY of your friends have access to your wifi, and *their* box is checked, then all their Facebook friends will also get access to your wifi.

And the only way you can prevent this is to append "_optout" to your SSID.

Thanks, it's a refreshing change to have an actual rational discussion :-)

Luckily the sea ice calc was easy to debug, and does get you into the ballpark. Most of the climate papers are much harder to work through (kinda why you need to have all that study and experience under your belt); while many of the principles can be grasped by laymen like ourselves, it quickly becomes clear from reading the papers that there can be a lot of subtleties and counter-intuitive effects that we just don't realise, and I'm happy to admit I get lost in the depths of many of them.

For auditing papers, the peer reviewers read the described methodology in data collection, and work through the calculations to check them, while looking for factors the paper may not have dealt with adequately. But the raw data has to be taken on faith, and errors can still slip through.

Luckily, papers examining different lines of evidence can often come up with similar figures, so cross-correlation is possible, where multiple different sets of observations and methods can confirm each other, and this is the basis for much of our confidence in the climate research to date.

I'd like to think I'm quite open to correction too, particularly on specifics (easy to get those wrong), but I have fairly high standards of proof required these days. There's so many different lines of confirming evidence for the observed warming that to change my views on that I'd need to see a peer-reviewed paper from a reputable climatologist, ideally that has also been publicly checked and confirmed by other reputable climatologists. Disputing global warming has reached the threshold of an extraordinary claim, given the sheer weight of studies, climate scientists, and scientific institutions that have confirmed it, so extraordinary evidence is now required to question it.

Sorry, you'll have to explain to me where in that link you're seeing hard figures for satellite corrections. You're not assuming "Global Temperature Anomaly" is a correction factor, are you? (it's the difference in temperature results from a mean value). All I see is that graph of those results, and some figures for trends. I followed some of the source links, but the methods they use are complex, and some of them only have abstracts available.

It's NOAA's graph, not mine, and they use joules because it's a measure of total energy change. This is helpful for discovering how much solar energy is being trapped by greenhouse gases and subsequently absorbed by oceans. Temperature is a less useful figure because it's dependant on the volume of water and thermal mass, but will show the same ongoing trend.

It's true that El Nino and La Nina cycles directly affect ocean heat, but these are relatively short cycles and can easily be smoothed out by averaging data over decades; similarly for solar cycles. There are also geologic cycles as you say, but those have a much slower effect, and can be accounted for by measuring the change in their causes (e.g. orbital changes). While we can't discount the effect of an undiscovered long-term climate cycle on what we're seeing now, nobody has yet found a natural cause that would result in such a relatively rapid change - but the effects we're observing match quite closely with the calculated effects of the rise in atmospheric CO2, so that's a sufficient and far more likely cause than postulating an unknown factor.

Similarly for sea level rises. Of course it has changed much more drastically in the past, and sometimes very rapidly too, but nonetheless the level of rise we're seeing helps confirm our hypotheses, and is still of concern to our many coastal communities.

Yeah, you're off by a factor of 1 million - 195,698,545,959 cubic meters of water is actually 195.7 cubic kilometres of water (there are 1000x1000x1000 cubic metres in a cubic kilometre). Though because the ice is freshwater, 200 Gt of ice would be closer to 200 km^3 when melted, or about 0.55mm when spread out evenly. There are of course other sources of meltwater than just Greenland + Antarctic, and thermal expansion is about 25% of the total rise too.

The last link was to the IPCC AR5 paper; they don't do the calculations there, they summarise the conclusions of the papers that do, and cite those papers. (The link I gave you was actually a draft and was missing diagrams, so here's the relevant section of the final report).

If you look at section 13.3.6, that discusses the contributing factors to the total sea level rise, and cites a number of papers for their sources, including Shepherd et al 2012 (better link than earlier) and Church et al 2011a.

Hope that helps.

Well, you took the time to write all that out, so I'll do you the courtesy of a response, but I will point out that none of it is worth saying without citations (which was the entire point of this thread).

You call it "common knowledge", but when it contradicts the published, peer-reviewed results from any number of studies, which are compiled, published and endorsed by organisations like NOAA, CRU, CSIRO, and the IPCC in numerous countries, then your "common knowledge" doesn't seem to be all that common at all. I provided linked citations of reputable sources for my claims, so you'll need data at least as reputable (please, no blogs or news articles). I've heard claims just like yours countless times, and nobody has yet provided any reliable data to back them up.

"[surface temperature stations] are mostly not very accurate" - a vague claim, but in aggregate they can still give a very accurate picture of the temperature trend.

"[satellites] have their readings INCREASED every year...The current "correction" is about .4 C" - citation certainly needed for this one, for both claims.

"the depths of the ocean are not warming... It rarely goes below 100 meters much less 200 meters." - the data shows that ocean heat content has been rising steadily down to 2,000m. Below that, NASA finds no significant change. But there's a huge amount of energy going into that top 2km of the world's oceans.

"there is no way to know how much [sea level rise] is the result of a climate change and how much is climate cycle." - well, we know that sea level rise accelerated significantly in the last 150 years. We know that it's consistent with predictions based on thermal expansion and measured ice loss. If it's part of a long-term cycle, there needs to be a cause, and there's no credible evidence of any cyclic cause at that timescale.

"There are regions that are losing ice and regions that are gaining ice... How much ice are you saying has melted... just give me your rough estimate." - Shepherd et al 2012 finds a net ice mass loss of over 200 gigatonnes/year for the last couple of decades, using multiple lines of evidence.

"ice extent is very easy to estimate. And ice extent doesn't show a decline." I cite ice mass because it's what matters, for rising heat content and for sea levels. Ice extent is a fairly inaccurate indicator of overall ice melt. That said, ice extent has been declining in the Arctic and Greenland while increasing in the Antarctic (despite overall ice mass decreasing there by around 70 Gt/y).

"if the ice packs were melting over all to any significant degree you'd see a great deal more sea level rise than we have seen thus far... We can look at the volume of water in the oceans and compare the change to your ice loss figures." - Yes, and it matches well with what we've observed, including accounting for thermal expansion (which, if you're tacitly admitting exists, requires significant ocean warming).

Citations - yes please. At this stage, if you have any further claims to make, I want to see only links to reputable published data and peer-reviewed studies, not talk of "common knowledge" or speculation from laymen or reporters.

That's quite a rant there - assumptions, ad hominems, sweeping declarations, invective, ironic projection, the lot. In fact, pretty much everything except data.

Science & Education, really? Remember what I said earlier about crap publications that would publish anything? Yeah. It's not exactly Nature, is it? Where is its peer-review policy anyway?

Shame the article is paywalled so we can't examine it, but these guys did. And if it's the article I think it is, applying Monckton's own peculiar standards for handwaving-away any papers that aren't explicit enough for him, only makes the numbers for rejection of AGW look even tinier, at a mere 9 out of 11,944 papers reviewed. And nowhere is there anything to back your claim that the consensus figures "included papers that argued against climate change".

And of course, Cook's paper isn't the only one that arrived at ~97% consensus - from Oreskes to Powell, they all give similar results. Plus, of course, the long list of scientific institutions that have confirmed the findings of AGW, and none dissenting.

Ah, specifics. Cite the papers that predicted these, please. Or are you getting misled by bad reporting again?

Every year, the surface temperatures rise, ocean temperatures keep going up, sea levels rise some more, global ice mass keeps decreasing - the ongoing trend is obvious everywhere to anyone who opens their eyes, and comes from climate scientists around the globe who couldn't care less about all that Republicans vs Democrats nonsense. The argument about what to do about global warming is certainly political - but the data aren't, and wild, unsourced claims of massive political bias in the field only make the accusers look like the foolish ones.

The *only * piece of the puzzle needed for intermittent renewables to be practical is storage - and there are many many options beyond stacked 18650 cells.

Pumped hydro (if the geography suits), reflow batteries with scaled-up electrolyte tanks, buried flywheels on magnetic bearings, lumps of concrete on inclined rails - the list goes on. There's something suitable for virtually every site, and it's all doable today, no breakthroughs needed. The only real concern is efficiency and economics - and those have had to compete against the skewed costs of fossil fuels.

Can renewables + storage compete against entrenched fossil fuels, if you even up the subsidies and account for the (massive) external costs? A number of studies have said "yes", and "we'll actually *save billions*", and "why the hell aren't we doing this already?"

All those links, and not one published paper among them. Seems like you completely missed my point.

Your Forbes link illustrates precisely what I'm talking about. It is not a peer-reviewed analysis, it is not subject to any stringent scientific standards, it is merely one layman's opinion, and judging from the language it's a highly biased opinion at that. *Exactly* the sort of reporting that only muddies the waters. What makes you believe he didn't "form his theory before the data came in" - or that the scientists in question did?

And nobody is claiming the peer-review is perfect - but it is *far* better than no peer review at all! It can't guarantee perfection of course, but the review process weeds out the vast majority of mistakes, obvious and subtle, and expert review does this better than any layman could. Inevitably there are crap publications that merely pretend to review, just like there are equally useless blogs and editorials, but reputable publications are still looked to as reliable sources by all in the field. There is a reason why, in every scientific discipline, peer-reviewed papers continue to be our highest standard of information quality.

You make vague accusations of bias, yet no offer explanation why so many researchers around the world in this one specific field would be risking their all-important reputation by apparently submitting (and passing) sloppy, biased work - only your claim that all their politics are different to your own. Plus of course, you fail to say why your preferred, non-scientific source is any better, particularly as it hasn't even had the benefit of an expert review.

It seems unlikely that all the coral will go completely extinct, yes. Some small percentage will doubtless adapt and survive. But sudden drastic changes to the environment will certainly result in massive diebacks, of the coral and the ecosystems that depend on them.

It'd also suck for the local tourism & fishing trades, and the many livelihoods that depend on them, not to mention losing at least one of the natural wonders of the world, but hey, at least the coral won't be completely extinct.