Comment Re:Are renewable energy generators up to task ? (Score 1) 488
You double counted efficiency. 10W/ft2 is approx. the output of a 12% solar panel so your figure is off by a factor of at least 8. But calculating things from hr/day is error prone, annualized, monthly, or daily radiation data is much better.
Also 12% is a dated figure, the best price point for panels today is around 16-18%, after system losses this yields AC output of ~14.5%. But modules comprise such a small portion of system costs these days (typically about 20%), that we should really all be going for 21-24% modules on rooftops because -25% installer times are likely going allow lower total system costs. Those modules (eg sunpower, panasonic) give about ~18% AC.
Let's try that again. Germany = 1000 - 1400 kWh/m2-yr (go with 1200)
Peak AC output on a system of 17% modules is conservatively .145*1200 = 174 kWh/m2
3600kWh/174 = 21m2 (225ft2), which is around 15 panels or ~3-3.5 kW system (on the small side) and consistent with practice.
Solar thermal is also very popular in Germany. Solar thermal is 2-4x more efficient for "heating" than PV, and passive solar is 3-6x more efficient than PV, so most of the heating premium (plus hot water) can be decreased and outright eliminated. Using solar thermal to void the heating premium and provide the standard 60-75% of hot water energy makes it very reasonable to leverage south oriented large roofs (7-12kW systems) to provide much extra solar for the 2-5x residences that cannot squeeze 11-15 panels on their roof. Also wind will contribute as least as much than solar to the overall energy budget.
Also 12% is a dated figure, the best price point for panels today is around 16-18%, after system losses this yields AC output of ~14.5%. But modules comprise such a small portion of system costs these days (typically about 20%), that we should really all be going for 21-24% modules on rooftops because -25% installer times are likely going allow lower total system costs. Those modules (eg sunpower, panasonic) give about ~18% AC.
Let's try that again. Germany = 1000 - 1400 kWh/m2-yr (go with 1200)
Peak AC output on a system of 17% modules is conservatively
3600kWh/174 = 21m2 (225ft2), which is around 15 panels or ~3-3.5 kW system (on the small side) and consistent with practice.
Solar thermal is also very popular in Germany. Solar thermal is 2-4x more efficient for "heating" than PV, and passive solar is 3-6x more efficient than PV, so most of the heating premium (plus hot water) can be decreased and outright eliminated. Using solar thermal to void the heating premium and provide the standard 60-75% of hot water energy makes it very reasonable to leverage south oriented large roofs (7-12kW systems) to provide much extra solar for the 2-5x residences that cannot squeeze 11-15 panels on their roof. Also wind will contribute as least as much than solar to the overall energy budget.