Comment Re:It's also better than nothing (Score 1) 312
Nuclear first strike threats happen as a result of a superpower standoff in the absence of peaceful cooperation. Those criteria eliminate Pakistan and India (not really superpowers capable of competing after the nuke, i.e. they have no reason to nuke us) and China (too much interdependence at present, they'd be nuking themselves in the foot, so to speak). Not that the situation couldn't change in the future, but the diplomatic situation is such that the motivation just isn't there.
Iran should also be considered as a rational actor, whatever the current rhetoric is (and if we accept that the regime itself is rational, even if Ahmadenijad is not, then between MAD, third-party AD after a nuke strike, and the lack of any reasonable expectation of benefit from nuking the US, there's no credible threat). Iran has very evident rational reasons for its current attempt to get nuclear weapons.
With North Korea you might have something, since Kim Jong Il actually does control the government. But again, even granting he's unstable, he's not incoherently insane. His worldview has an internal logic -- it just doesn't agree with the rest of us. If I had to make a guess, I'd say that developing the nuclear arsenal serves a couple of purposes there: 1) technology sale for a country starved of exportable goods; 2) a bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations with the nuclear powers; and 3) the ability to deter the US from being involved in conventional warfare on the peninsula. Given the ongoing Cheonan incident, I wouldn't be surprised if that third one was the most significant.
In short, none of those examples pose a credible threat to the US at present. There's a potential threat in the future assuming technological development and a huge change in the diplomatic and economic situations, but those are some pretty big assumptions -- you would not need larger ones to imagine a credible nuclear threat from a non-state actor.