In regard to your comment that nobody is buying sedans any more... it's true. To an extent.

But that's largely because American automakers STOPPED MAKING THEM. And it wasn't do to lack of demand, but because American automakers continued to push buyers towards ever larger SUVs and trucks.... on which they make a lot more money.

Why sell someone a passenger car for $30,000 when you can convince the same person that they "need" a $100,000 truck?

On which they make $30,000 in PROFIT.

Not so simple as China's "push" to EVs. Auto sales (especially luxury sales) in China were dominated by foreign brands with highly sophisticated ICEs. The advent of the EV gave Chinese companies a way to leapfrog their competition, plus there's now a lot of preference in China for Chinese brands. Add it all up and foreign auto sales are plummeting.

The only way out is for many companies like Volvo and VM to partner and build in China. Much like how Honda and Toyota have plants in the US and as such they can advertise American-made (or at least assembled) cars.

I suspect that in the US the playbook will be for many dealerships to ignore EVs for as long as they can.

But once they're no longer able to do so, they're going to hit up the automaker for the money needed to convert. And the automaker won't really have a choice in the matter if they want to stay in business.

That said, Ford and GM both have over $100B in debt and their sales numbers are dwindling overseas, which means that they're either going to declare bankruptcy or run to the government for another handout.

They were subsidized in part by sales in China, but the Chinese market is turning away from them too.

The brand is effectively dead.

If you watch the video, it appears that a lot of the EV "repair" problems come down to Tesla and Rivian's fit and and finish issue. Misaligned panels, rattles, and so on. Tesla's drivetrain tech is pretty good, but after 10 years they're still learning how to build cars.

Wonder if someone has done a debt analysis on the amount of CO2 created building a nuclear power plant. All of that steel and concrete doesn't just drop out of the sky, not to mention running a construction site and equipment for a decade or more.

Then there's uranium mining, enrichment, storage, reprocessing...

There are quite a few studies that show EVs as better for the environment. We may not have nailed down every factor, but the flip side is that almost any other external factor you might want to add to the equation is probably offset by the same factor applied to building and continually fueling ICE vehicles. All of the exploration, drilling, mining, pumping, shipping, refining and distribution of oil and gasoline has massive externalities involved. Who produced the steel for the rigs and pipes? Who produced the drilling equipment and what was their footprint? Who built the oil tankers?

Only problem with ICEs is that you need to do all of the above, daily, year in and year out for the lifetime of the vehicle.

Moving on, I agree wholeheartedly that we should do everything possible to prioritize mass transit, walkability, and biking, and minimize car use.

But.

In the US we've spend the last century designing our cites around urban sprawl. Like it or not, that's where many of our homes are and where people live.

You're simply NOT going to solve existing urban sprawl, especially in western cities, with mass transit.

As such, some form of personal transportation must exist. And if so, then it benefits everyone to make it as efficient, and as clean, as possible.

Tesla's success, the general success in the EU, and the overwhelmingly abysmal sales of traditional ICE vehicles in China.

Many are waking up to the unpleasant realization that they're going to have to learn how to build the silly things, or be forced out of the market.

Pretty much the entire used car market is underwater at the moment, but we do need some reliable metrics for determining battery health and state of wear. Simple odometer milage will no longer cut it.

Took long enough.

Is this more signaling, like we did in the '80s regarding buying a Japanese car over something made by Ford or GM?

But yes, if traditional automakers won't make anything other than overpriced, oversized pickup trucks then I'll be more than happy to consider an affordable substitute.

"Our current materials supplies will not allow us to build enough batteries. And so, we are looking for more supplies. And, looking for replacements for all the rarer materials that are expensive, and impacted by conflict -- sodium, iron and so forth. I don't think we will be balancing the grid with (new) lithium ion in tens years time."

Sigh. From what I've read it appears that the current deposits found in the Salton Sea area ALONE could provide enough lithium for 375 million EVs.

I'm a fan of nuclear, actually. But the sad truth is that no one has managed to build an affordable plant on time and under budget in the last half century.

Had some hope for SMRs, but it looks like costs are going to be an issue there as well.

Tesla's 3 and Y are some of the best selling cars on the planet and have dramatically reduced in price over the past year. We just hit the semi-magic $100/kWh price point and battery prices continue to fall.

BYD sells cars for a profit. Volvo's EX30 has started shipping, and will hit at $34K here in the US.

2024 is probably the tipping point.

We're starting up the S-curve past the early adoption stage. I think people are going to be shocked at how fast this transition is going to happen from here on out...

Newer batter technologies (LFP, SS, etc.) are replacing the flammable electrolyte and I suspect that in the very near future most of these occurrences will simply fade away.

Be interesting to see what Hollywood does though, given there that a typical ICE tends to explode the second it's shot with a bullet or simply rolls over.