I think you're a bit off on China. They've got some huge problems coming.
First, they've built themselves on continuing growth. And they're reaching the point where they can't keep growing - the world only needs so many refrigerators or t-shirts, and so on. That's going to cause some large economic problems - they won't be able to provide enough jobs.
Second, they've built a middle class. Middle classes have time to think about concepts like "why does the government get to control everything I see?" and start to have problems with it.
Third, those two synergize into a larger problem, they have a middle class that's sinking into lower class. The collapse of their growth-based system means getting your PhD might still mean you're working the assembly line. Middle classes will not accept the same lifestyle that lower classes will. That's going to increase the instability.
These aren't unsolvable problems, but there will be some rough times as they figure out how they will solve them.