A leader might accidentally trip and fall on the button in your scenario too. Einstein said, learning how to release atomic power changed everything except our thinking. That issue is still playing out, and motivates much of my efforts (whether towards abundance for all, better tools for civic sensemaking and education, or work towards self-replicating habitats for Earth and space). Who in the tech profession has not seen a variety of complex systems fail in unexpected ways over the years? So, speaking purely probabilistically, chances are, we will see these weapons go off sooner or later due to accident or error. They might go off because of a technical accident ("99 Red Balloons" wrongly interpreted as an attack, a massive solar flare causing a launch, bad capacitors causing a launch, etc.). Or they might be used because of a psychological or political accident (like the one your insightful story is about). As others have also pointed out, "MAD" assumes rational actors trying to act in self-preservation; if you put lunatics in charge of the button then it might get pressed for any number of crazy reasons same as many people regularly do other self-destructive things.
21st century technologies of abundance (nuclear, biological, chemical, nanotech, robotic, AI, communications, bureaucracy) create more "buttons" in more places in the hands of more people. That makes it more and more likely a button somewhere will get pressed. Worse, many (probably most) the people using these 21st technologies are still locked in a 20th century (and earlier) mindset of worrying about material scarcity. So, they ironically are willing to use nuclear energy (as bombs) to fight over oil fields, when nuclear energy could instead produce all the energy we might otherwise get from oil (not that I'm much of a conventional nuclear fan compared to renewables, energy efficiency, fusion, or LENR).
While we need to do what we can to reduce the chance that any of the buttons get pressed including by promoting a philosophy of mutual security, we should also design with the expectation they will eventually get pressed, and create an infrastructure that is resilient and distributed enough to muddle through anyway as a form on intrinsic security. The internet was supposedly designed to survive nuclear war. We need to apply some of the same thinking to agriculture, power, medicine, education, transportation, and so on. However, this strategy for intrinsic and mutual security is completely at odds with maximizing short-term economic profits by "just in time" delivery of good produced or routed through centralized hubs controlled by a few monopolistic actors.
My OSCOMAK project (and precursors) was a hope in that direction (not that I've succeeded much with it directly).
http://www.kurtz-fernhout.com/...
http://www.pdfernhout.net/prin...
"Why do I want to build these habitats? Most people would agree there is at least a one percent chance the human race will wipe itself out within the next century through a nuclear or biological war. The issue isn't even necessarily about our politicians making mistakes. The fallibility of the Soviet missile command computer technicians is what worries me most. Like anyone else familiar with computers, I know how easy it is to make a mistake with one. Beyond accidental warfare, expanding populations and industrial pollution threaten our lives just as much. I feel that even if there is only a one percent chance of ecological disaster over the next century, I want to do my best to ensure human survival in that case.
Most people do not think about these issues, or if they do, rapidly dismiss the problems as too large and impossible to do anything significant about. I feel I have an alternative to apathy or despair. Some habitats in space or underwater would probably survive a nuclear war. Unlike bomb shelters, they would provide an intact technological and cultural base from which to regrow our civilization. If there is not a war, they would still serve the useful function of providing more living space for expanding populations. Being a closed environmental system, they would also make people focus on recycling industrial pollution back into raw materials, leading to safer industries and a cleaner environment."
In the USA, our lives are still completely dependent on 1970s Soviet-era technology for nuclear launching that we in the USA tried to sabotage by supplying bad computer chips and such!!! It is so easy to forget that fact which is "out of sight, out of mind". See:
http://abcnews.go.com/Technolo...
http://archive.wired.com/polit...
"Yarynich is talking about Russia's doomsday machine. That's right, an actual doomsday device--a real, functioning version of the ultimate weapon, always presumed to exist only as a fantasy of apocalypse-obsessed science fiction writers and paranoid über-hawks. The thing that historian Lewis Mumford called "the central symbol of this scientifically organized nightmare of mass extermination." Turns out Yarynich, a 30-year veteran of the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces and Soviet General Staff, helped build one.
The point of the system, he explains, was to guarantee an automatic Soviet response to an American nuclear strike. Even if the US crippled the USSR with a surprise attack, the Soviets could still hit back. It wouldn't matter if the US blew up the Kremlin, took out the defense ministry, severed the communications network, and killed everyone with stars on their shoulders. Ground-based sensors would detect that a devastating blow had been struck and a counterattack would be launched.
The technical name was Perimeter, but some called it Mertvaya Ruka, or Dead Hand. It was built 25 years ago and remained a closely guarded secret. With the demise of the USSR, word of the system did leak out, but few people seemed to notice. In fact, though Yarynich and a former Minuteman launch officer named Bruce Blair have been writing about Perimeter since 1993 in numerous books and newspaper articles, its existence has not penetrated the public mind or the corridors of power. The Russians still won't discuss it, and Americans at the highest levels--including former top officials at the State Department and White House--say they've never heard of it. When I recently told former CIA director James Woolsey that the USSR had built a doomsday device, his eyes grew cold. "I hope to God the Soviets were more sensible than that." They weren't.
The system remains so shrouded that Yarynich worries his continued openness puts him in danger. He might have a point: One Soviet official who spoke with Americans about the system died in a mysterious fall down a staircase. But Yarynich takes the risk. He believes the world needs to know about Dead Hand. Because, after all, it is still in place."
It's a hard problem to wrestle with. See also Joanna Macy's inspiring work:
http://www.personaltransformat...
http://www.amazon.com/Despair-...
From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J...
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Joanna Macy is one of the world's leading sustainability educators. Macy shares her knowledge through her books, workshops, courses and talks. She explores the challenges communities globally are facing, and shares communal approaches to strengthen a life-sustaining culture. The workshops Macy teaches are Business Sustainability, Spiritual Ecology, Meditation, Responses to Climate Change, Wisdom of the Elders, and Tips for Activists. Many of Macy's books have a an accompanying website where readers can explore, take a course, or use tools to aid their training. On Macy's website for her (and Chris Johnstone's) book Active Hope, How to Face the Mess We're in Without Going Crazy, she summarizes the practice which sustains an active hope:
* Take in a clear view of reality.
* Identify our vision for what we hope will happen.
* Take active steps to help bring that vision about.
In the book, Macy and Johnstone explore what Active Hope is (and why it is already happening) in the chapter entitled The Three Stories of Our Time. This chapter is designed to inspire readers to gauge their states (variously) of acceptance, denial, confusion, flexibility, adaptability, compassion and resilience. While Macy's "three stories" are:
* Business as usual. Some examples are "people who believe that economic growth is essential for prosperity, nature is a commodity to be used for human purposes, and promoting consumption is good for the economy".
* The Great Unraveling: economic decline, resource depletion, climate change, social division, war, and mass extinctions. The second story is designed to provoke reflection, and even discomfort with the truth.
* A shift in consciousness. In this story a collective identity is found and built upon through what Macy describes as The Three Dimensions of The Great Turning, "Holding actions - for example campaigns in defense of life on Earth; life-sustaining systems and practices - for example developing new economic and social structures; and a Shift in Consciousness - for example change in our perception, thinking, and values.
The chapter is about the importance of change in society, and for the need to continuously nurture and educate for a life-sustaining culture.