I think what is in dispute is the magnitude and direction of the feedback. Notice the letter says catastrophic global warming. Possibly they only disagree with the catastrophic part. The CO2 that is being emitted by itself will only cause about 1C per century of warming, which isn't very catastrophic.
Zimmerman's life wasn't in danger. Nobody wants to get their head bashed against the sidewalk, but you don't kill somebody for that.
Whatever, if I am having my head beat against the pavement by someone as big as Mr Martin, and I have a gun I shoot, if I have a knife I stab him, failing that I find a rock and bash him upside the head.
it's also exciting to watch the real next step. I don't know what it is yet, will it be biotech? Social revolutions that will allow us to live within our practical limits?
Boring!! Well I guess biotech is interesting, but a world without people trying to exceed our "practical limits?" Not to long ago a 4 minute mile was considered a human limit. Going to the moon was definitely outside our "practical limits." Oh well I guess I'm just glad not everyone thinks the same way as you.
Really?
Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim's got a diagram here we'll send that either later today or
first thing tomorrow.
I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith's to hide the decline. Mike's series got the annual
land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999
for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with
data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
Thanks for the comments, Ray.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
And what decline are they trying to hide? Why the one that shows that their tree ring data doesn't increase after 1950 and they don't know why.
If you look at the figure in the attached article in Science by Briffa and
Osborn, you will note that tree-ring temperature reconstructions are flat
from 1950 onward. I asked Mike Mann about this discrepancy at a meeting
recently, and he said he didn't have an explanation. It sounded like it is
an embarrassment to the tree ring community that their indicator does not
seem to be responding to the pronounced warming of the past 50 years. Ed
Cook of the Lamont Tree-Ring Lab tells me that there is some speculation
that stratospheric ozone depletion may have affected the trees, in which
case the pre-1950 record is OK. But alternatively, he says it is possible
that the trees have exceeded the linear part of their temperature-sensitive
range, and they no longer are stimulated by temperature. In this case
there is trouble for the paleo record. Kieth Briffa first documented this
late 20th century loss of response.
Personally, I think that the tree ring records should be able to reproduce
the instrumental record, as a first test of the validity of this proxy. To
me it casts doubt on the integrity of this proxy that it fails this test.
Sincerely,
Jeff [Severinghaus]
Open your eyes -- go and actually read through some of their emails. Here I've set up a search of the emails for you. Open your mind a bit too while you are at it.
Except as their own email show those scientific facts are anything but. Instead they are statistically massaged to look the way they want them when the base is actually showing things very different.
I doubt it really takes all that much effort now. Originally to set up the system with where they are recording the data, it was probably pricey, but now all they need is the database and so good high end data analysis tools, so figure about $240 K (pure SWAG) a year for analyst and software. That works out to about 20K a month with one month being about your standard ad cycle, add in say $1 per person for a targeted ad campaign, if you make $10 per person that comes in and buys which is low, and you have a 10% response rate to your adds, you come out even if you can identify 20K people to send your ad to.
Obviously these numbers are all guess work, and I'm sure Target and the marketing company have done similar math but with similar results. I can't imagine a business savvy company would do these things without doing the math and determining it was worthwhile.
The decline that is trying to be hidden, is the one from the tree ring proxy data if you continue to use it post about 1950. So they stop using the tree ring proxy data and instead splice on actual temperature readings. In their sample set the tree ring proxy data would go down, which obviously doesn't match the temperature record. This implies that maybe tree ring data is not a good proxy for temperature.
There are other statistical problems with the data they use, but that is one of the most glaring. I know they have reasons why they think the tree ring data declined at that point. But their emails show that they didn't want to display it because they thought the uninformed would jump on it, and reject their entire point because of this discrepancy. To me that unwillingness to defend the issues in their data and instead attempt to just hide it illustrates basic dishonesty.
I think it is the other way around, if you don't believe there is something fishy going on after reading even a small portion of the two sets of released emails then you are not willing to face facts.
you are right I took his 34.2M as the CO2 number incorrectly
If you think there's a cabal of scientists banding together on global warming for the money and power, then you are either astonishingly ignorant or a total moonbat
Either that or you read the emails of the cabal of scientist banding together on global warming.
I think what he was referring to is not that cars release CO2, but that the CO2 they release is several orders of magnitude less than say coal fired power plants.
The problem with your assertions is that from their own emails we know that these scientists have actively worked to pervert the peer review process therefore nullifying your belief that only published scientists should contribute to the scientific discussion.
The only possible interpretation of any research whatever in the `social sciences' is: some do, some don't. -- Ernest Rutherford