It came late in the year but I would nominate this linked article as the best of slashdot, 2009.

All those jobs would be staggered, it wouldn't be retire all of them and hire on new ones. I thought I made that point toward the bottom of my previous reply. Some would leave, the bulk would stay on, other new hires come in. Just like it is now, with a different time scale, ten years instead of twenty.

    At the worst, say with a ten year max commitment you would lose 1/10th the older workers and gain 1/10th new workers per year. That leaves 90% at any one time as being experienced at some level over one year on the job. You would never see all new workers/ green guys. We don't have that now, and wouldn't have it with a ten year max service period either. We'd just eliminate the lifetime pension deal, a HUGE cost savings to the tax payer in general.

As to cops and firemen, etc, a lot of that can be done with part time as needed moderately paid volunteers, who can be just as well trained as full time leading to pensions folks.

Heck, this should be obvious, we could get rid of half the cops out there (plus reduce court costs and prisons costs) within months as soon as they end the war on some drugs. I would imagine you would agree with me there, that war on some drugs creates as much or more of the crime situation as anything else. It just doesn't work, forty years of "doesn't work". Should be long enough as an experiment to see if it does work, and it hasn't, so we need to end it. And volunteer firefighters are already in use all over the nation, I worked for a year as one before, gratis, no pay whatsoever, working just a few fires though, but the principle is very old and well established.

In other words, we still have work arounds for the way we are spending ourselves into oblivion now, at all levels of government.

Anyway, we are doing it your way right now,so... feel free to watch it continually collapse. Slow motion, but it is happening. If it doesn't, you get to rag on me unmercifully, offer numerous crow pie recipes and so on. heh heh heh

    My point is being proven daily with the real numbers and headlines as I post and comment on, though, the government is trying to run in the red in perpetuity, and now they can't get enough takers to buy up that debt. Black and white, their own data, that isn't theory or opinion, it is raw data. We're broke as a nation man, that's it. What to do with that is conjecture, but not the actual fact of life, that's just data. The government workers themselves as a group aren't seeing it as much, as they are more insulated from fiscal reality and responsibility, so they assume it is rosier than what it really is, because they have as close to guaranteed for life jobs as exist any more. But the money to guarantee all those jobs has to be borrowed, or printed up out of thin air which hurts the value of the dollar all the time,, so much so, and projecting forward to the contracted debt loads..it is impossible rationally to think it can continue for much longer without serious negative economic consequences.

  The current government business model is broken, and there is no fix for it without radical change and a huge drop in government expenditures, however that might happen. I would think it would need to include mass layoffs, elimination of unnecessary social engineering and other not needed agencies, and the elimination of so many expensive perks, including lifetime pensions.

  There really aren't many options you have when you are spending more than you are making, besides "not doing that". You can pick and choose how to "not do that", but it boils down to you can't spend what you ain't got. If you keep borrowing, eventually the lenders will recognize you as a dead beat and cease throwing good money after bad.

This is what is happening right now, as I showed a little bit with my "they won't buy the debt" JE post..

They will run the printing presses to try and pay these debts off,"monetization", and it will have the effect that has always had when governments tried that previously all over the world, which will be fail. It has never succeeded before for any decent length of time, ever, no place.

    To distract attention as a full rout collapse gets closer, I expect the other thing they always do, the mass distractions, exterior war on a very large scale (today's running wars I will not classify as large scale yet, just mediums), then a huge amount of interior bad guys/terrorists, some class they will use as a whipping boy for persecution to blame all their troubles on. That is conjecture, but it the most common of historical models we have to look at.

Personally, I would rather a peaceful restructuring of the government around limited but critical functions and just dump all the garbage they accumulated over the past 70 years or so, as most of it isn't necessary. I think that would be much less painful and more fair, and more effective in turning the economy around.

    I don't think they will do it, governments as a rule apparently have little interest in being peaceful, nor fair.

That's where Google will be more innovative than Apple : the phone will remain invite only indefinitely, the price will not change and only 5000 will be made.

That way the happy few will get to remain exclusive dorks indefinitely.

It's worse than that probably. The US makes something like 14 trillion a year in inflated dollars, and this includes some really dubious things of worth like "IP" stuff being "worth" such and such a digital copy. Future debt load is way over one hundred trillion and climbing daily, much faster than true wealth creation could justify.

I read this analogy with budgets, it is more or less accurate. Say you make 200 grand a year, but are already three million in debt, and your projected budget and day to day spending now isn't enough to even cover the interest, let alone any principle. Would you be bankrupt? How long would your creditors let you skate by you giving them more IOUs? How much more loot would they be willing to lend you? And suppose on top of that your employment status was *really* iffy, let alone just counting on any raises, etc?

That's the US now.

They aren't throwing a little spin on the situation, they have conjured up an F5 tornado to try and maintain propaganda damage control.

...with the current model they use of full lifetime employment, full pension, heck, many of them get two pensions, they work 40 years strictly in government. they even have a term for it it is so common, it is called "double dipping".

Here's the proof it doesn't work-name a governmental agency that has gotten so efficient that they have put themselves out of business, or don't require more people and more money all the time, where they have accomplished a task. Here's more proof, we are at several million total laws now on the books..there's no end game there. Name the figure at which point this government growth beast will actually have "enough" laws to micromanage everything and keep stripping wealth our of the economy for this "service"? What's the number? A billion laws, what?

As a percentage of the working population, we have more governmental workers now than ever before, with no end in sight. I'd have to look it up but wouldn't be surprised at all if it isn't higher than even during world war two.

    The federal government is by far and away the largest single employer, and *very* few federal jobs actually go to produce wealth, they fall into the "possibly needed" service side of the equation. What is the "enough" figure there when we have plenty of governmental workers and just don't need any more?

Where is the money coming from for all the proposed governmental pensions that are now part of law? Doesn't wealth have to be produced first before it needs to be governed and serviced?

Where is the money coming from for all the wounded vets to take care of them in the future, and where are the replacement civilian workers that would have been there if they weren't tied up in the war industry?

If the current model worked, why is there so much debt, as in over a hundred Trillion dollars debt that this government now owes for contracted pensions, long term healthcare, other and sundry entitlements and government worker salaries and to maintain a million buildings and fleets of vehicles and so on and *also* to service the trillions in *already issued* treasury bills and bonds in the future, along with maintaining an ever increasing payroll, with now around 1/5th making six figures plus a slew of bennies and then an income adjusted pension for life? If they are that good, and if government is so efficient with the model they use now..why all this debt?

In the private sector, prices for goods drop, and/or you get better quality service for the same currency unit over time, due to actual productive efficiencies advances. Government....ain't seeing that, it is the opposite, it costs more, to get less. They have failed to even maintain currency unit parity due to subcontracting money creation to a private for profit bank, who has inflated the currency to the point that it is really worth about two cents on the dollar.

Here's an example of this self perpetuating monster. When you and I were kids, we didn't have a federal department of education. Completely didn't exist, zero dollars taxed and spent there at the federal level. We spent less total dollars per student, by a *large* factor for public schooling then. Since we have this new incredibly expensive department, can we honestly say the quality of education has gone up..or has it flatlined or even gone down? US rankings with every study I have seen for years are just not that great at the global level,, despite all this so called "needed expense".

  That's just one example, there are many more, where we not only don't need twenty year employees, we don't need any of them *at all*, they serve no useful function. Do we really need a dea or a batfe? Heck, last count I was aware of, and this stuck with me, there were *33* different federal police agencies. I mean..wtf? And now they want to add in even more healthcare bureaucrats and policing functions, along with carbon bureaucrats and policing functions? What? We don't even need those databases to be administered, they don't even need to exist in the first place. Let those computer folks go out and make some money producing something *worthwhile*.

I contend this necessity for having twenty year full career governmental employees is artificially created, an artificial "need", that in most cases, isn't even necessary for a functioning and fair society. And being a "professional politician" is laughable. That shouldn't exist either. And, seeing as how people vote their wallet, these governmental employees are by and large *never* going to vote efficient government, on the contrary, they will want *more* government and more expensive government.

Government "service" should be that, a community service, moderately paid, not a jobs and growth behemoth that issues new laws constantly to "prove" they are needed and that they must be given higher pay and so on all the time.

Here's another. We don't need a large standing army, the founders expressly warned against that for several valid reasons, they had the model that worked, much like Switzerland, the real militia. No one invades Switzerland, the Nazis didn't, the Sovs didn't, no one will, because they would lose. And they don't maintain a large standing army, just well trained organized militia (they also have the lowest crime rate in europe, and the most guns at home, and the highest percentage of trained marksmen/folks with modern military training and so on, even the wimmins there, but it doesn't cost them two mints to maintain that deterrent for national self defense).

    A full time large military is used for offensive purposes, and that's it, or to keep their own population in check. Look around the planet, this is true stuff. The more dictatorial a regime, the larger their full time standing military and beauracracy. So there could be another big savings, bring back the real militia in replacement for this nonsense we have now, tons of guys would have the necessary military skills as part of ongoing training every year(17 years old to 49 would get the training), but wouldn't be full time paid employees either, IF we had stuck to the original model, and we wouldn't be getting into so many wars of dubious purposes either. It is not only costly to do it the way we do it, it is incredibly dangerous and by far and away the easiest way for a real nasty dictatorship to arise. The founders warned us about this clearly, for that exact reason.

A limited constitutional government as originally designed is a much better idea, and would certainly cost less. And my idea of "term limits" would cost less than that. And this would also help keep everyone on track that government basically costs money, it doesn't make money, and they would vote and approve measures that reflect that, and not this willy nilly spend our grandchildren's future money/ put them into labor bondage before they are even born now so we can have millions of office workers "governing", that don't really contribute much at all to true wealth creation inside the community and economy. You want your twenty or thirty year career plus pension, make it in a business that offers good quality products or services, but not at the expense of your neighbors by taxes removed from their pay.

I maintain that any "advantage" governmental workers bring to the table after a few years is way more just developed office politics skills, brown nosing skills and CYA skills than any efficiency in work. (also going by stories from many relatives in government and friends and acquaintances stories of working in government..waste and inefficiency is the *norm* it appears, so why prolong it for twenty years. So they can get better at goofing off?). Probably a little to be said for some more advanced skills, but really, if after a few years you can't do a job adequately-enough, not at some grand master level but "adequately", you should be doing something else, and you really shouldn't be taking tax payer dollars for sub par work.

As to your one example, no, that isn't how that would work, a brand new raw hire wouldn't be put into the position of grand exalted DB admin, someone else who is more familiar with it and has been there some years already, like three to seven years say, would take that spot and be moved up. Plenty of time for familiarization with the task at hand.

It needs to be government SERVICE, not government career. Rotate a lot more of the citizenry through. Heck, could be a ton of already retired in the civilian section people take on another few years of government work, instead of going to be a walmart greeter. I'd probably do it for a few years just for a hoot if it was set up this new way. Or perhaps be used in training younger guys in the militia, who knows. Go be a game warden maybe for a few years. Whatever. Heck, fix roads, I can operate machinery.

    These theoretical part time true service oriented folks entering government might have accumulated twenty or thirty years of specialized skills *before* they even come in, but might do it for the "service" part. Or like MH42's idea, as a younger person's payback for a college degree, they come in entry level. Or folks still in middle age, decide to just do something else for the next decade. If we didn't have to pay government pensions, that would free up a LOT of cash to hire people to do necessary infrastructure work, just for another example.

There are a lot more options than the ones we use now, which are probably way too expensive as it stands. It just ain't working now, we will be forced to come up with something better..eventually.

  To me, the sooner the better and try to salvage something out of the national economy before wall street and DC rape and loot it into total oblivion. The course we are now tracks the Titanic's, it is completely unsustainable, that sucker is gonna crash and then sink. The math is really simple, it just doesn't add up, we just can't keep doing things the way we have been doing as regards governmental expenditures and future entitlements and debt loads. It just..it can't be done.

    What that guy in the other article said, look at Detroit now, stay the course we are on, that is the whole US soon. They waited too long to change things and get real in Detroit, they just assumed it would always work, their economic model. Heck, I am from there, as a kid, then again later as an older teen. I saw it start to seriously collapse in the late 60s then as I came back to visit the folks into the 70s. I mean, shazzam. Block after block of what was in the 50s nice neighborhoods that I used to play in turned into abandoned areas, worse than slums, so much so they call it beirut now.

That's the whole US coming, that sort of thing, when you can't recognize the current business, the government-business, model is broken and try to just bravura your way out of it. It just won't work. You have to be willing to recognize the problem before it completely collapses to avoid said collapse, and I am just not seeing any true recognition of this coming from the federal government as regards real money, or lack thereof..but the foreigners we rely on to purchase our IOUs sure see it. That's a major clue there, and why I posted those auction results up top.. those stats, and tons more like that, are exactly like the lookout going "ahoy below, iceberg dead ahead!".

We have two choices, pay attention and seriously shift course...or not. There is no third choice.

Some enterprising company could come out with the dual bulb traffic light, or even just replacement dual bulb modules. Most of the time it runs LED, whenever the weather gets icy snowy inclement it gets a signal from the traffic control overlords and switches to normal hot incandescent. I've seen flashlights like this already, so it can be done.

I hold a lot more than gold, it is just part of it. And for that matter, using your example, what is a starving man going to do with your stocks and bonds? heck, most people don't even hold their physical stocks, they are held elsewhere and they just get a statement.

If you go back and read some stories about the great depression, or have had the privilege of talking to relatives who went through it..believe me, gold and silver still got used in the gray market economy back then, even after roosevelt confiscated it, or tried to.

Anyway, I said "tangibles", I am into "tangibles", plural. I hold way more than a year's food in advance for instance. Including home canned, dried, store bought canned, and frozen (three freezers total here), plus some longer range nitrogen packed expensive stored food, good for thirty year's storage. Gold/silver is in there with my other stuff, but down my list of necessities for independence. I put my priorities this way, in this order, because this is what you need to survive. I have written on this for years now on the net, here and elsewhere, since 95 actually.

Here are the priorities, in this order: water,food,shelter,security

For water we have our own well, plus I store many gallons in case of electricity disruption or the well busts, etc, some inside the house, some in clean water storage barrels. We also have several large ponds and a year round stream onsite, plus very good quality water filters so we can use that water.

Food, I have short,medium and longer range stored food, plus we grow our own beef and poultry and have an extensive garden, and also a large greenhouse. For winter heating (which would be under "shelter"), we use wood harvested on site, and have a full large propane tank as a backup to that, but I try not to use it, and propane is good for years/decades, it doesn't go bad. As to security, we hold medical stores and have at least a rudimentary medic level skillset, plus self defense tools and skills, etc. For primary, of course like everyone we rely on a functioning intact society and government, but because I have seen up close a few major riots now, plus several major natural disasters, I know civilization can change in two minutes from functioning to..not. Best I can do there.

And etc. That's what I mean by backups for backups and tangibles insurance. Say like electricity, we have mains power, then solar power, we also have a windcharger, then some generators.

Anyway, gold silver and copper have been traditional monies for thousands of years, still have their worth, still get traded, still get stockpiled, and precious metals monies aren't going to go away anytime soon, and many foreign nations are adding to their own bullion stores, including the largest developing nations, brazil, russia, india, china, the "BRIC" nations, as well as many others. It will retain worth for the foreseeable future. It is part of a survivalist "portfolio", although I recommend people get their other necessities covered first.

    Many people are still making enough now they can do "all of the above" simultaneously, say on a month to month investment schedule, to get both the tangibles insurance and also develop the skills needed. If you look at the bottom link provided in my reply for the URL source, you'll see that commentator also has moved rural where practical tangibles necessities are more easily achieved, merely by that one act of getting ensconced on some acres.

If you throw all your surplus wealth, just say, into a 401k and then walk away..man, you can get seriously hosed. That's the eggs in one basket, then trust ownership and possession of that basket to the biggest liars and conmen on the planet model.

Doesn't seem all that prudent to me.

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2009/2009_4week.htm

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2009/2009_5year.htm

Just select the latest, dec 29th

The actual stuff is in PDFs so when I copied I had to use the "post in code" option here to keep the formatting. I tried plain old text and it got garbled.

Here's another year end analysis by someone else, a bit more than what I wrote if you want a human readable synopsis of the state of the economy. You simply can not rely on the main stream media economic talking heads, they are in the business of maintaining the status quo propaganda. My economic writing, in typical slanged out no BS fashion is spread out over the previous year here. My generic advice for folks is cover the necessities, and have backups for backups and do NOT stick all your wealth eggs in the liar's baskets. This is a major grifter's economy and they will and are ripping people off as fast as they can now because they *know* they are selling a polished turd and that isn't going to last long.

Anyway, another cool article, I more or less agree with most of what is said there..more or less. Bottom line = "screwed".

I am into tangibles, for many good and valid reasons, from here on out, I don't even maintain much in cash, just a reasonable cushion. I have no doubt I could surf the fatcats' moves and make money shuffling paper,(they telegraph their moves rather transparently nowadays) but I find that..distasteful. I would rather shovel actual bull from on the farm here into the garden, it's just more honest ;) I positioned myself several years ago now to be able to maintain a similar lifestyle even in the midst of a *major* economic crash. Not exactly, it would hurt, but much less than for most other people, this is how much I think I am correct, and I have yet to find any evidence whatsoever that I am incorrect or that the trends aren't what they are.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/harris/harris122709.html

I have the privilege of being able to inspect a lot of cessnas (couple dozen or so) from fully complete up to date and functional to a hangar fulla parts, and every stage in between, including one crashed one where the bonehead decided to fly his groceries with him instead of buying them where he was going, and didn't estimate his weight correctly and didn't make it. He lived through it, but the plane is chunky style now spread out and he needed a lot of re-constructive surgery from what I hear. (old airport where I live, besides being a big farm, I maintain the grounds and fences and do the mowing, etc)

There has GOT to be a better way to build affordable airplanes. What that might be I don't know, but this old traditional way needs some serious rethinking. Those things are *ridiculous*, and absolutely no wonder why they are expensive and need a lot of reliability insurance, etc. They are made of one zillion tiny pieces of aluminum held together with 100 zillion rivets. Even the ones in good shape aren't capable of keeping their own doors shut if they aren't keylocked, I have to go around and reclose them all the time. I can't see how they keep from getting recalled, rube goldberg doesn't come close to what they are. It's no wonder they need massive inspections and certifications and insurance, etc. and cost so much.

I have no idea on the quality of other brands and makes, but if one were given to me I'd sell it pronto and look around some more.

They've come pretty far from the 289 I had in a bronco. Dang nice engine then, looks to be killer now.

They were on the right track back then with this gem, but dropped the ball for twenty years or so (thanks to the dipsquats at nascar, who ruined motoring a number of times, along with the indy car circuit banning the turbine engine). A friend had one of these *real* cobra engines in a 67 comet, a street sleeper, dang he smoked some cars with that ride. He smoked rats and hemis and the odd xke, *all* the time. You just don't see too many ten second street cars. Back then, the only thing that gave him trouble was kowalski (detroit joke name for kawasaki, because of all the pollacks in hamtramck, a 'burb) mach IIIs, which for the time were stupid crazy fast.

Still got a big block here, GF has a lincoln with a 400. About an acre or so of engine. I keep wanting to buy it from her to make an el linchero out of it, hahahah!

Anyway, I hope you get one, if the economy tanks like I think it will, you'll have a spiffy mad max machine!

Especially not the people at Redmond.

But whatever their so called aperture, the physical aperture is still a pinhole lens that is a couple millimetre across. My proper f./2.8 lens have a diameter of 77mm (and can close to f./22). Which actually lets some light in.

There's probably a physical limit under which you cannot go and still have a reasonably decent lens (not super studio high-end flawless quality, just decent). At a guess from the various compacts I've seen, I'd say it's around 1.5cm. Maybe a wee bit less.