Operative word there is "if". Several studies have shown that the majority of PHEV owners don't bother plugging them in, which in turn means that they're now just driving around in less-efficient HEVs.
It also looks as if Toyota has been caught lying about PHEV efficiencies, under-estimating their emissions by over 400%.
Can be five years, can be just two. Depends a lot on how much you drive and where your grid gets your power. Regardless, I'd think concerns about a "bump" aren't really warranted, as we're still in the process of conversion. Ih the US were about 7% at the moment, with predictions of 9% EOY.
The curve should be ramping up, but the vehicles sold prior to this are already contributing their reductions, with the result that an ever increasing EV base will more than end up compensating for the annual increases.
As to burning H2, that's pretty inefficient, and there are quite a few pollution aspects to consider as unburnt H2 starts combining with N in the atmosphere to produce some nasty byproducts.
They're trying to get everyone else to hold off on buying an EV until they have something worthwhile to sell.
It can in fact do so. Badly. Regardless, the Mirai doesn't fall into that category.
"Toyota has only ever used hydrogen tech as spoiler and FUD to counter the uptake of battery electric vehicles."
Agree that recently they've done so. Go back a few decades, however, and I'd argue that many people did indeed think that hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells were going to be the solution, Just ask Ballard and Plug Power.
I don't think anyone could have predicted just how quickly battery technology was going to improve, and just how quickly costs per kW/kg we going to fall.
Toyota zigged when they should have zagged, and they're now trying to catch up.
Just noting that the current trend towards lighter vehicles based ob megacasting and structural battery packs works against this.
About the only place this could work from my perspective is in trucking, where it's a lot easier to standardize fleets.
Hydrogen is terrible for grid storage. Losses everywhere. If you need grid batteries then use batteries. CATL is now warranting its new EV battery for 1,000,000 miles or 15 years, and looking to use a similar version of this in grid storage solutions.
https://chargedevs.com/newswir...
Although a better choice in many situations would be pumped hydro, which can be done in a lot more places than one might think.
Hydrogen is better suited for situations where its chemical structure can have more impact, like producing steel with a low carbon footprint.
Probably the most current poll, which shows that 52% of Americans currently own or are considering an EV for their next vehicle.
Interesting (to me), are the demographics aspects that basically show less interest among those older, poorer, or conservative. That's especially understandable if you're poor, since there are a dearth of affordable options in the US at this point in time.
Adoption is highest among the upper and middle income brackets, the young, and those who skew liberal and among those who're worried about climate change.
Regardless, if you're older you're less likely to embrace this particular change. And those who're conservative are less likely to embrace any change, by definition.
So yeah, there are going to by hybrids and ICEs for awhile. Or at least until the holdouts die off.
That footprint isn't as big as you think and getting smaller.
Regardless, one needs to keep in mind that a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle needs a fuel cell with pumps and fairly expensive catalyzers, AND it needs tanks to hold the hydrogen, AND it needs an electric motor to move the car along, AND it too needs halfway decently sized EV battery, since the output of the fuel cell doesn't match up well with the needs of the vehicle when accelerating and driving along.
IOW, a HFCV is really just an EV... with it's own charging infrastructure bolted on.
Which is one of the reasons why the silly thing was so expensive.
People are now trying to push hydrogen for trucking, but it looks as this is one of the same pitfalls. Trucks would need a LOT more hydrogen, and pumping it in any reasonable amount of time requires very high pressures and very expensive, finicky equipment.
When you start spending millions per pump it starts to take some of the polish off of the concept.
Actually, Toyota has announced quite a few partnerships, including with Chevron.
That was one of the biggest reasons Toyota kept (keeps) pushing hydrogen. They want to sell you the car and then make more money every time you went back to the pump.
CATL announced a new electric vehicle battery pack with a 1.5 million kilometre, 15 year warranty. Think they were discussing roughly 2,000 charge cycles before one would start to notice any significant degradation.
Current batteries are pretty good. Future batteries will be even better and old batteries will be recycled into new ones.
Biggest problem is that most people simply don't plug them in, which means that you're now basically lugging around a battery and electric powertrain that's underutilized.
"The medium is the massage." -- Crazy Nigel
