Bird Flu Drug Mass Production Technique Discovered 252
creepygeek writes to mention a New Scientist article detailing a new process for creating Tamiflu, an antiviral drug currently thought to be our best defense against the bird flu. From the article: "Making Tamiflu is slow, partly because shikimic is hard to get, but also because one step in the process involves a highly explosive chemical called an azide. As a result, Tamiflu can be made only in small batches of a few tens of litres at a time. But Elias Corey of Harvard University - who won a Nobel prize in 1990 for chemical synthesis - and colleagues have devised a new way to make the drug from two cheap, plentiful petrochemicals, acrylate and butadiene."
Good News....right? (Score:5, Insightful)
From TFA: It's too bad that our 'biggest hope' is not up to the task, as the following articles assert:
It might be better to just stock up on old-fashioned Jewish penicillin [ivillage.co.uk].
Good news... (Score:3, Insightful)
Biggest chance to save people? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Good News....right? (Score:5, Insightful)
Drug resistances happen because virii and bacteria mutate over time. This is a big reason why many traditional antibiotics are becoming less useful against certain bacteria, and a possible cause for some of the "super bugs." And if your idea for fighting bird flu is with chicken soup, we truly are screwed.
Re:Good news... (Score:5, Insightful)
-Killer bees (there was a movie on this one too)
-SARS
-AIDs (several movies)
-Terrorism
-Anthrax (related to the above)
-Small Pox coming back
-Etc.
While they're all threats, they aren't just going to all of a sudden just break out all over the place. The media loves to feed off our fears--as it sells almost as well as sex. When it explodes, THEN freak out about it, but until then enjoy life.
Tamiflu? (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:Good News....right? (Score:5, Insightful)
The difference from a mutation can be enormous. For example, the current virus has about a 50% mortality rate. It is very like when that when it mutates, this mortality rate will go down. The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 had only a 2.5-5% mortality rate and that was without Tamiflu. That doesn't mean this one will mutate into only having a 2.5-5% rate. It will likely have a higher rate, and frankly, I think a lot of the predictions of how many will die from an H5N1 mutant pandemic are lowball figures because they do tend to assume a pretty low mortality compared to what it's currently at.
But you're basically comparing apples and oranges at this point. A pandemic flu will not be the current strain because the current strain simply isn't contagious enough.
Re:Good news... (Score:1, Insightful)
Come on. You're talking to a guy who has a respectable job who's only managed to pay down about 3500 bucks of his student loans in three years. And part of that is thanks to donations. It's pretty clear that he doesn't put much effort into things.
Re:Good news... (Score:3, Insightful)
Maybe it's flu, maybe it's something else. If we spent so much hype, time, energy, and effort preparing for every possible bug that could become an epidemic or pandemic, we would never get anything done. Personally, I am far more concerned about the epidemics that we know about (HIV for example) than I am about bird flu. I think that the main reason that bird flu (which has only infected a couple dozen people and killed even fewer) gets so much press is two fold:
1. The majority of the media-embracing public understands the concepts of birds and flu.
2. The Bush administration is zero for two on preventing, mitigating, or responding to major US disasters (9/11 and Katrina) and they're desperate to look like they're doing something to prepare for future disasters.
Mortality rates (Score:5, Insightful)
I have problems with these mortality figures. It's very easy to determine who died from bird flu - you have a body, death certificate, medical records, etc. It is NOT easy to work out who has had the bird flu and has survived in the general populace - not all sick people will have seen a doctor and some may not even have developed symptoms. Without doing a massive study looking for bird-flu antibodies, the mortality figures are almost certainly overblown, maybe by orders of magnitude. This applies whether we are talking about the impact on birds or on humans.
Cheers,
Toby Haynes
Re:Good News....right? (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:Good News....right? (Score:4, Insightful)
Tamiflu, an antiviral drug currently thought to be our best defense against
AFAIK Tamiflu doesn't Defend you from the virus, it just makes easier for the body to Fight it once you're already infected. you can still die, and if you've been illusional enough to waste your Tamiflu before you got ill the chances will be even better (since there won't be any on the market when/if it will/should ever hit in).
There's still no birdflu here that could move from one mammal to another via air. There are lots of other viruses around that deal much greater damage at the time being, perhaps we should pay attention at them aswell ?
ps. even if you buy a ton of tamifly, the animals that you need around for the farming industry to work, won't be protected, and if it's half as bad as it supposedly could be, you'll just die into hunger. hopefully wild animals have better protection against it than the worthless humans.