Journal Keith Russell's Journal: NHL 2006 Bracket 3
That's right, kids. It's time once again for the analytical tomfoolery that is my predictions for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Instead of showing entire records, I've included how the teams played in their last 10 games.
Round 1
East
1 Ottawa Senators (3-5-2) vs. 8 Tampa Bay Lightning (5-4-1)
Regular Season: Ottawa, 4-0
Tampa has been a bit of a let down this year. It would be easy to say that losing Nikolai Khabibulin to free agency hurt the team. Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Brad Richards couldn't repeat last season's performance, however. The defense has been just OK. And both John Grahame and Sean Burke have been inconsistent this year, leaving John Tortorella to wonder which, if either, goalie is the go-to guy for the playoffs.
The Senators aren't exactly at full strength right now, as injuries slowed them down after the Olympic break. But Ray Emery has been strong in relief of Dominik Hasek, and kids like Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, and Andrej Meszaros have carried Ottawa well enough that they can get through this round, get the big guns healthy, and make a strong run for the Cup.
Prediction: Senators in 5
2 Carolina Hurricanes (5-3-2) vs. 7 Montreal Canadiens (6-4-0)
Regular Season: Carolina, 4-0
Carolina was strong and consistent all season long. The Habs have needed heroic performances from Cristobal Huet, night in and night out, just to stay alive. Normally, I'd go with a hot goaltender like Huet, but the fact that three of Carolina's wins were by 4 goals or more tells me that Montreal is going to fold.
Prediction: Hurricanes in 4
3 New Jersey Devils (10-0-0) vs. 6 New York Rangers (4-6-0)
Regular Season: 4-4
This is the only divisional match-up in the first round, and it has plenty of back story, so expect this to be a wild series.
First of all, this is the Rangers' first playoff appearance since 1997. For all of their extravagant spending before The Lockout, they had never built a good team. This year, new head coach Tom Renney realized that you don't fit Jaromir Jagr into a system, you build one around him. So Renney did, and Jagr had a tremendous year, finishing second in both total points and goals after leading both categories for most of the season. Add in two legitimate Rookie of the Year candidates in winger Petr Prucha and goalie Henrik Lundqvist, and you have a formula for a division title.
Except for the fact that they're entering the playoffs on a 5-game losing streak. The Rangers entered the final day of the season one point ahead of Philadelphia and New Jersey. By losing to Ottawa, the Rangers lost the division and dropped three seeds. Lundqvist is coming back from an injury, and backup Kevin Weekes hasn't been sharp.
Jersey, on the other hand, couldn't be hotter. They rode an 11-game winning streak to the division title, and Martin Brodeur has been out-of-his-mind brilliant during that run. The last thing any team wants to hear is that they have to face Brodeur on a hot streak in the playoffs.
Prediction: Devils in 6
4 Buffalo Sabres (7-3-0) vs. 5 Philadelphia Flyers (5-4-1)
Regular Season: Sabres, 3-1
This series is full of questions. Is Peter Forsberg's $UNSPECIFIED_LOWER_BODY_INJURY healthy? Is Ryan Miller's lack of playoff experience a liability for Buffalo? Can the Flyers handle Buffalo's scoring depth? Can Robert Esche keep the starting job for Philly? If not, can Antero Niittymaki regain his Olympic MVP form, or has he been overworked? Will any of my questions actually be relevant to the series?
Prediction: Sabres in 6
West
1 Detroit Red Wings (8-1-1) vs. 8 Edmonton Oilers (5-4-1)
Regular Season: 2-2
The Wings clinched the best record in hockey over a week ago, but they didn't let off the gas once they did. That may be a good thing, since they've had a run of strong regular seasons and early playoff exits in recent years. Has playing in a division with league bottom-feeders Chicago, Columbus, and St. Louis softened them? To make matters worse, they're facing an Oilers team that has given them fits this year, pushing three of their four meetings to overtime. I think momentum and the desire to give Steve Yzerman a grand finale will give Detroit the advantage.
Prediction: Red Wings in 6
2 Dallas Stars (4-3-3) vs. 7 Colorado Avalanche (4-5-1)
Regular Season: Stars, 3-1
Dallas and Carolina are two 2-seeds in a pod, going about their business in much the same way: Under the radar.
Colorado and Montreal also have some 7-seed symmetry, in the form of a goaltender trade that sent David Aebischer to Montreal (to back up Huet, as things worked out) for Jose Theodore, who has spent much of the stretch run recovering from a heel injury suffered while shoveling snow during the Olympic break. The Avs have essentially bet the farm that Theodore will carry them through the playoffs. Those of you hoping that the "bet" would lead to a series of Texas Hold'em metaphors from me will be disappointed, though. Colorado won't last that long.
Prediction: Stars in 5
3 Calgary Flames (6-1-3) vs. 6 Anaheim Mighty Ducks (6-4-0)
Regular Season: 2-2
This series feels so much like a 4-5 match-up, that I honestly flipped a coin to come up with a prediction. Neither team has an aspect that jumps off the page.
Prediction: Heads, I mean, Flames in... (heads 6, tails 7) 7
4 Nashville Predators (7-3-0) vs. 5 San Jose Sharks (8-1-1)
Regular Season: 2-2
This 4-5 series has some stories to tell, at least. First of all, the season series was very close, with both of the Sharks' wins coming in overtime, while both Preds' wins were 1-goal games in regulation. And both teams are riding strong stretch runs into the playoffs. Two things will tip the scales in this series.
For San Jose, it's the spontaneous combustion of Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo. Gallons of ink and gigabytes of bandwidth have been wasted on why Thornton "failed" in Boston. His play since being traded to San Jose early in the season has proven one thing: His only failure was in not single-handedly carrying a mismanaged Original Six team on his back. That trade turned the Sharks' season around, Thornton won the Art Ross Trophy as the league's leading scorer, and Cheechoo won the Rocket Richard Trophy for scoring the most goals.
For Nashville, however, the story is the loss of Tomas Voukoun for the rest of the season, due to blood clots in his abdomen and lower back. Things had been looking up for the Preds all year, with a resurgent Paul Kariya leading the way and, for most of the season, a tight division race with Detroit. Then backup goalie Chris Mason got a phone call during dinner. Voukoun wanted to tell Mason personally that he'd be The Man for the playoffs. So far, Mason has done well, but I don't think Nashville can stop the Sharks' attack.
Prediction: Sharks in 7
Round 2
East
1 Ottawa vs. 4 Buffalo
Nothing like a division match-up in the second round. It ought to be a little nastier, but a rested Ottawa should beat a tired Buffalo.
Prediction: Senators in 6
2 Carolina vs. 3 New Jersey
I stand corrected. The last thing any team wants to hear is that New Jersey is building momentum in the playoffs. I'd give the edge to the Canes, if the Devils weren't entering the playoffs on a roll. But they are.
Prediction: Devils in 7
West
1 Detroit vs. 5 San Jose
Uh-oh. Strange things happen when these two teams meet in the playoffs. Something tells me that Detroit's tendency to fade early will run into San Jose's momentum, and the result will be a lot of people comparing Red Wings hockey to Kansas Jayhawks basketball.
Prediction: Sharks in 7
2 Dallas vs. 3 Calgary
The Stars quietly, efficiently, dispose of another opponent.
Prediction: Stars in 6
Conference Finals
East
1 Ottawa vs. 3 New Jersey
In the past few years, Ottawa has suffered some playoff collapses that have been painful to watch. Let it be said that, this year, it won't be a collapse. Try as they might, however, I don't think they have enough in the tank to beat Jersey.
Prediction: Devils in 7
West
2 Dallas vs. 5 San Jose
This will be a hard-fought battle, but I have to fall back on an old cliché here: Offense gets the glory, defense wins the game.
Prediction: Stars in 7
Stanley Cup Finals
Dallas vs. New Jersey
As much fun as it is to watch a Cinderella reach the finals, there's always a chance that the finals themselves will be a dog, as Cinderella's glass slipper is ground to sand. No such problem here, as we get to watch the result of two steamrollers colliding head-on. Both franchises have a history of building teams that thrive on playoff momentum. Being from the same division as the Devils, I see Martin Brodeur way too often to think that he'll be the one who cracks. Sorry, Marty Turco.
Prediction: Devils in 7
Update: Fixed details on Theodore's injury.
My thoughts (Score:2)
2. I wouldn't read too much into Jersey's hot streak heading into the playoffs. Those things have a way of reversing quite quickly.
3. Anaheim-Calgary will be interesting to watch, as it will be a baro
Re:My thoughts (Score:2)
I saw an interesting factoid after posting this JE: The Red Wings are 21-1-2 (.917) against CLB, CHI, and STL, and 37-15-6 (.690) against the rest of the league. Still not to be taken lightly, but not as far ahead of the pack as the standings make it appear. That could hurt Nashville, too. Strength-of-schedule in the Central is pretty shabby when there's 32 points between 2nd and 3rd.
Re:My thoughts (Score:2)
The Predators, for example, were 19-4-1 against STL, CHI,