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Comment Re:Significant % of patterns in randomness (Score 5, Informative) 173

If you test data against a thousand possible patterns, then about 50 of them will be found to be present at a statistical level of 5% (even if the data is 100% random).


If you're not correcting for multiple hypothesis testing, you are correct. If you do have 100% random data that holds to perfect randomness at all scales (which I'm not sure is even possible) and correct for multiple hypothesis testing, then you'll find exactly what you "should" find: no significant pattern.

You mention "Cancer clusters" as an example of attribution of significance to insignificant findings. However, these clusters are often found (at least in the genetics research realm) by hierarchical clustering, which is self-correcting for multiple hypothesis testing. If you're speaking of demographic surveys which find that (e.g.) "black females in Tahiti who were exposed to .... are more susceptible to brain cancer", then you're probably right. I too see those as examples of restricting the domain of samples until you find a pattern - but the pattern nonetheless exists.

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