not true (Score 1)

This isn't true, at least not in the southern and eastern African countries with very high HIV prevalence rates. Take Botswana for example: Assuming that prevalence rates stayed at 1999 levels, a boy who was 15 years old that year had a 90% of eventually dying of AIDS (this taking into account other sources of mortality). Granted, Botswana has the highest HIV rates in the world, but similar calculatations have been conducted for other countries and there is little doubt that HIV/AIDS will have an enormous demographic impact on many African countries.